A few mini-supercells occurred beneath a 500 mb low centered over the Lower Ohio Valley. A surface trough axis extended from central Kentucky southward.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A few mini-supercells occurred beneath a 500 mb low centered over the Lower Ohio Valley. A surface trough axis extended from central Kentucky southward. A moist low level air mass combined with diurnal heating resulted in scattered thunderstorms. A few of these storms were mini-supercells, including one cell that produced a weak tornado. A larger cluster of showers and thunderstorms remained nearly stationary for several hours, producing locally very heavy rainfall amounts over four inches.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 1, 6:13 AM CST, 1 hour 47 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 713 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013 GFS...ECMWF...GEM AND NAM ALL SHOW THE UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...SLOWLY PROGRESSING WEST TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONGOING SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER DAYBREAK TODAY AS PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN INCREASE WITH DIURNAL HEATING. POPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE HIGH CHANCE WEST TO LIKELY CATEGORIES CENTRAL AND EAST WITH LOW DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE WEST/NORTHWEST...BEST POPS WILL BECOME FOCUSED OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY DECREASING EACH DAY. POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE PAH FORECAST AREA TUESDAY...THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. POPS WILL DROP OFF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA...DECREASING TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT ONLY KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES POPS IN THE EVENING...THEN KEPT THEM GOING ONLY IN OUR EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE REGION IN THIS FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. OVERALL WENT WITH WARMEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE AS ANY PEEKS OF SUN HAVE HELPED TEMPERATURES CLIMB A LITTLE HIGHER THAN FORECAST HIGHS AT MANY LOCATIONS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013 NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER IOWA WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BE SUCKED INTO THE WESTERLIES NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...LEAVING A WEAK TROUGH BEHIND. THAT TROUGH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY BE SUPPRESSED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD OUR REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK AND MUDDLED FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST FRIDAY...AND THEN INCREASE A BIT FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 30-40 POPS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT OF QPF EACH PERIOD...BUT THE OVERALL SIGNAL IS PRIMARILY DIURNAL. OVER THE WEEKEND THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 2 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS AND INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT THURSDAY...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA REACHING THE MIDDLE 80S. BUT WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL BE STUCK IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. THERE IS SOME BUST POTENTIAL FRIDAY ON WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION AND THE EARLY JULY SUN ANGLE. IF THE MODELS ARE OVERDONE WITH THEIR MOISTURE/CLOUD FORECASTS...UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL NOT BE AT ALL SURPRISING. && .AVIATION... ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013 PREDOMINANT MVFR/IFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO LOW VFR BY MIDDAY. ON GOING SHRA/ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE MORNING..WITH MORE TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS LIKELY WITH CONVECTION. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AFTER 02Z. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AROUND 10 KTS TODAY...DECREASING TO 6 KTS OR LESS AFTER 02Z. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && SHORT TERM...RST LONG TERM...DRS AVIATION...RST
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 433 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-020945- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 433 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED....BUT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED....BUT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS AGAIN POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST IN THE EAST ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. THE CHANCES WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY AND INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
The Evansville,IN radar (KVWX), 31 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 14:00 UTC.
2 heavy rain, 1 flood, 1 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
A trained spotter reported 4.04 inches of rain fell during the day and early evening. Storm total rainfall of 4.90 inches was reported by the general public. County Road 1300 North was flooded by the West Village Creek.
U.S. Highway 45 North was closed. Numerous county roads were covered by water. A trained spotter at Mount Erie reported five inches of rain in less than 12 hours.
Shallow standing water was reported over several county roads. Two roads in Mt. Carmel had standing water.
The tornado, just north of Bellmont, primarily impacted a grove of trees south of the Highway 15 and East 500th Road intersection. The tornado moved west, snapping tree branches and lofting them vertically as witnessed by a storm chaser. The storm chaser sent video of the tornado to the National Weather Service for review and confirmation. The storm chaser stated that other fog columns or low-hanging clouds were observed that day, but they did not rotate.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2013Every state in 2013This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Illinois, 2013Warnings in Illinois, July 2013
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 463716, 463976, 463717, 459160.