A mid-level trough axis pushed through the Southeast on the afternoon of the 16th, bringing some precipitation during the afternoon across mainly central Georgia. Behind the trough axis, a dry airmass began to spread over the area.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FFC wrote it up.
A mid-level trough axis pushed through the Southeast on the afternoon of the 16th, bringing some precipitation during the afternoon across mainly central Georgia. Behind the trough axis, a dry airmass began to spread over the area. However, because of significant recent rainfall, fuel moistures remained too high for any critical fire weather conditions.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Atlanta, GA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 16, 6:36 AM EST, 7 hours 24 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 636 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2013 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2013/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THE NAM IS NOT QUITE AS SHARP WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AS THE GFS AND ECMWF THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE GFS THEN DIGS THE TROUGH A LITTLE TOO MUCH AS IT EXITS THE AREA...WITH A MUCH STRONGER ATTENDANT VORT MAX. OVERALL TOOK MAINLY A BLEND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HERE AND THERE. TROUGH AXIS AND VORT MAX SWING THROUGH MAINLY BETWEEN 18-00Z TODAY. DPVA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIP TODAY...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL ZONES BETWEEN 12-18Z. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD LOW CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THE MOISTURE OUT. AGAIN...BEST MOISTURE IS IN SOUTH AND EAST ZONES AS THE STRONG DPVA INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAPS INTO SOME GULF MOISTURE TO BRING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. BECAUSE OF THE VERY STRONG CAA ALOFT...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY. WAS CONCERNED ABOUT A POTENTIAL 06Z HIGH BUT THINK THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH DELAY IN THE SURFACE CAA THAT AFTER A BRIEF DROP IN TEMPS THIS MORNING...THEY SHOULD RISE SOME TO REACH AN AFTERNOON MAX. THAT SAID THOUGH...TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE ACTUALLY RUNNING A TAD WARMER THAN FORECAST SO WILL HAVE TO REEVALUATE MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE MORNING. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE COLD... WELL INTO THE 20S EVERYWHERE WITH TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON IN SOME LOCATIONS. ECMWF MOS REMAINS COLDER THAN MAV/MET GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH MAV AND MET HAVE BOTH TRENDED COLDER AS WELL. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE COLLOCATION OF MOISTURE AND INCOMING COLD AIR. CAA ALOFT WILL SERVE TO SIGNIFICANTLY STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE DAY AND THUS THINK THAT COLD AIR CONVECTIVE CU OR STRATOCU WILL FORM...LEADING TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MIGHT SEE A DUSTING IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT OTHERWISE TEMPS TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING TO STICK AND ACCUMULATE...BUT THAT SAID BECAUSE OF THE VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SNOW FALLING WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S. HAVE INCLUDED A MIX AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN METRO ATLANTA COUNTIES BUT ALL RAIN SOUTH OF APPROXIMATELY A LAGRANGE TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE. WITH CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...BEST SNOW CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. BETWEEN 18-00Z...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AS FLOW TRANSITIONS TO NORTHWEST FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT AGAIN CHANCES REMAIN SLIM. NO PLANS FOR ANY WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER ISSUE IS THE STRENGTHENING GRADIENT TODAY LEADING TO STRONG WINDS. AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE STARTS FALLING OFF TO OUR EAST AS A RESULT OF CYCLOGENESIS...THINK THAT WINDS WILL PICK UP PERHAPS MORE THAN MOS IS INDICATING. THUS WHILE STRICT GUIDANCE NUMBERS DO NOT QUITE REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...THINK THE PRUDENT THING TO DO IS JUST GO AHEAD AND ISSUE THE ADVISORY ANYWAY...SO ENDED UP BUMPING UP WIND SPEEDS IN THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN ON SUNDAY BUT IN THE MEANTIME WILL NEED TO MONITOR WIND CHILLS ESPECIALLY WITH SUCH COLD TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERION IS AT OR BELOW 0F AND WE HAVE SOME AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS HOVERING NEAR THAT MARK...BUT RIGHT NOW NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY. WILL HAVE TO REEVALUATE LATER TODAY ONCE WE GET A HANDLE ON HOW MODELS ARE HANDLING THE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST AND RESULTANT INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TDP LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT... AND ESTABLISH A WARM... MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY. THIS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT PROGGED BY BOTH ECMWF AND GFS TO TRAVERSE THE STATE ON TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITIES...BUT FRONTAL FORCING DURING DAYTIME HEATING...COUPLED WITH A STRONG 50KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL WARRANT CONTINUED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED... A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS APPEARING TO BE THE MAIN THREATS AT THIS TIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. LACK OF INSTABILITY AND UPPER FORCING SUGGEST ONLY SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. 39 FIRE WEATHER... A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT... EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... FUEL MOISTURE'S SHOULD REMAIN MOIST FROM RECENT RAINS... AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE STATE. THEREFORE... NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS 4-8KFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 02-05Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. SOME SNOW FLURRIES ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 04Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...15-20KT WITH GUSTS 20-30KT THROUGH 02-04Z THEN DECREASING TO 7-10KT WITH GUSTS 10-15KT AFTER. //ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... HIGH. 20 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 44 22 48 29 / 30 5 0 5 ATLANTA 42 25 48 33 / 20 5 0 5 BLAIRSVILLE 36 19 41 25 / 20 5 0 5 CARTERSVILLE 42 22 47 29 / 10 5 0 5 COLUMBUS 48 27 52 32 / 20 0 0 5 GAINESVILLE 41 24 45 31 / 30 5 0 5 MACON 48 24 52 27 / 30 0 0 5 ROME 42 22 48 28 / 10 5 0 5 PEACHTREE CITY 43 22 49 25 / 20 5 0 5 VIDALIA 50 30 53 30 / 30 5 0 5 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW... BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE... CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA... CRAWFORD...CRISP...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY... DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH... GILMER...GLASCOCK...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL... HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON... JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR... LAURENS...LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER... MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON... NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH... PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY... SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT... TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN... TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WARREN... WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX... WILKES...WILKINSON. && SHORT TERM...TDP LONG TERM....39 AVIATION...TDP
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 1137 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2013 GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086- 089>098-102>113-171645- BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA- CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA- CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL- FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE- GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON- JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON- MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY- MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH- PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON- SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS- TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN- WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES- WILKINSON- 1137 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE AND A SURGE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S. HOWEVER...THE WARM GROUND AND LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD HOLD ACCUMULATIONS TO LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING ON GRASSY AREAS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT...STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS OF 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH ARE LIKELY...WITH EVEN HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. SEE THE LATEST WIND ADVISORY /ATLNPWFFC/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY... BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG...WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The National Forest Service reported that a human-caused wildfire labeled Hidden Creek burned 6.8 acres and resulted in $5,000 in damages.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Georgia in 2013Every state in 2013This day in weather historyWarnings in Georgia, February 2013
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 428227.