Flash Flood and Flooding in Georgia, August 19 to 20, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
214 PM EDT MON AUG 19 2013

...TYPICAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE...

.SHORT TERM...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW IS HAVING
TROUBLE PUSHING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS INLAND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STORM MOTION STILL TOWARDS THE N/NW AROUND 10
MPH. ACTIVITY WILL BECOME NUMEROUS OVER FAR INLAND AREAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND STORM MOTION IS SLOW ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH A
FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.
PEAK TEMPS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH LOWER
90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

TONIGHT...STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD FADE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET OVER
INLAND AREAS AND END AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT NOT BEFORE SOME HEAVY
STORMS OCCUR OVER FAR INLAND AREAS AND EXPECT A FEW TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH
PATCHY FOG TOWARDS MORNING...HEAVIEST OVER INLAND AREAS. LOWS IN THE
70S INLAND AND NEAR 80 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST.

COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES...TIDES ALONG THE COAST RUNNING ABOUT ONE-HALF
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL BUT EVEN WITH THE HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
EXPECTED THIS EVENING...LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING GUIDANCE VALUES AT MAYPORT/FERNANDINA BEACH. TUESDAY
EVENINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND MAY NEED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TOO TELL AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN AROUND THE HIGH THAT CONTINUES
TO RETROGRADE TO OUR WEST ON TUES INTO WEDS. A PATTERN OF
CONVECTION BEGINNING THE DAY ALONG THE COAST AND WORKING ITS WAY
INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE SCATTERED ON TUESDAY AS SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A PREVIOUS STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STILL BE PRESENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GA. WEDNESDAY
COVERAGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS WITH THE ADDITION OF AFOREMENTIONED
DRIER AIR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 70S. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS WITH LOW
90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S IN COASTAL AREAS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS ON FRIDAY. WITH PREVAILING
EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW...COASTAL SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL BEGIN EARLY
EACH MORNING AND PROGRESS INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY...INCREASING
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
ACROSS INLAND AREAS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...FORMING
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS IT NEARS THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE NE US...WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. THE
12Z GFS SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST BUT THERE IS STILL INCONSISTENCY
WITH THE LATEST EUROPEAN RUN. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE WIDELY SCATTERED
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. MAX
TEMPS WILL APPROACH MID 90S ACROSS INLAND AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE LOW 90S ON SUNDAY. LOWS WILL
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDS WITH SCATTERED STORMS IMPACTING TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON BUT STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH PROBS TO INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS
AND WILL LIKELY JUST UPDATE AS NEEDED (LIKE WAS DONE FOR KCRG WHICH
HAD A HEAVY SHOWER WITH GUST TO 25 MPH AT 17Z). ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH FROM THE COAST TO INLAND FROM 22Z THROUGH 02Z AND JUST SOME
PATCHY CLOUDS LEFT OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL LIGHT FOG/SCATTERED IFR
CLOUDS TOWARD SUNRISE...THEN A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF VICINITY
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY
THEN A SHIFT TO EAST WED/THU AND BACK TO SOUTHEAST FRI/SAT. NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES...GENERALLY MORE NUMEROUS NEAR THE
GULF STREAM.

RIP CURRENTS: MARGINAL MODERATE RISK IN THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  90  72  92 /  50  50  50  30
SSI  77  88  76  88 /  20  30  20  20
JAX  73  91  72  90 /  20  30  20  20
SGJ  75  88  76  88 /  20  30  20  20
GNV  72  92  72  90 /  30  40  40  30
OCF  72  92  72  91 /  30  40  40  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

HESS/GUILLET

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
230 PM EDT MON AUG 19 2013

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-201000-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
230 PM EDT MON AUG 19 2013

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...

...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREAT IN STORMS TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. STORM MOTION IS TOWARDS THE NORTH
AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELEVATED EASTERLY SWELL AND SURF WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONE HALF FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL WILL COMBINE WITH HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TO PRODUCE
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COASTAL REGION DURING THIS EVENINGS
HIGH TIDE CYCLE. VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING LEVELS AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

ELEVATED WATER LEVELS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME. SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
747 PM EDT MON AUG 19 2013

GAZ150-200030-
WARE-
747 PM EDT MON AUG 19 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EAST-CENTRAL
WARE COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 830
PM EDT...

AT 745 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER HEBARDVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 5
MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND EMERSON
PARK...BOGGY BAY...WAYCROSS...SUNNYSIDE...NEEDHAM...HEBARDVILLE...
DEENWOOD AND PEBBLE HILL THROUGH 830 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3129 8238 3129 8237 3128 8237 3125 8235
      3125 8234 3120 8230 3113 8243 3130 8249
      3130 8239
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 168DEG 5KT 3123 8239

WOLF