Rip Current in Florida, September 16, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1037 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2013

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
The 12z KTAE sounding is similar to yesterday with moist low levels
but very dry air aloft. Modifying the sounding for afternoon T/Td of
93/69 gives an SBCAPE values around 2250 j/kg. With a convective
temperature on the sounding of 91, convection may get a relatively
late start this afternoon, similar to yesterday. Afternoon
temperatures will be above normal again today with low to mid 90s
expected across the interior.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
Fairly interesting fcst over the short term period, as the
dominating Upper Level Ridge which has been responsible for the
quite hot weather this past weekend will gradually begin to break
down, weaken, and slowly retrograde to the west. This will allow a
back-door cold front to approach the region from the NE, as a cool
and dry ridge of Canadian High Pressure builds in from the Great
Lakes over to New England. The approach of this front (which may
completely dissipate before it can push through the region, may keep
PoPs ranging from 20 to 40% (W to E) on Tuesday, with 20s and 30s on
Tue Night and Wednesday. High temps will still be hot on Tuesday
with highs climbing into the lower 90s away from the coast, but
should moderate back down to the upper 80s to around 90 on
Wednesday, as some cooler and drier air tries to work in from the
NE.

At the coast, some longer period swells from Ingrid may start
propagating NE towards our coastline during the next couple of days.
Still, the winds will be light today out of the SE and and a little
stronger out of the E-SE on Wed. Surf heights still only look like
2-3 feet at best right now, and Walton County (probably most
vulnerable in this scenario) is still flying Yellow Flags.

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday through Sunday]...
The GFS and ECMWF keep the stronger more amplified 500 mb flow
well to our north through the period. Our forecast area will be
situated to the east of a weak 500 mb ridge, though this may
change by next weekend. The GFS forecasts a weak frontal passage
next Sunday or Sunday night while the ECMWF shifts the ridge
position off the Southeast coast. Despite these differences, our
temperature and PoP forecast is unlikely to be affected that much.
The PoP will be near climo (generally in the 20-30% range), as
will temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 12z Tuesday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the day with isolated to scattered convection this
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Observations from the offshore buoys indicate that swells from
Ingrid have made it into the area this morning with Buoy 42039
reporting seas between 5 and 6 feet with a swell height close to 5
feet and a period of around 7 seconds. Easterly winds are expected
to gradually increase by later on Tuesday and into Thursday. It
appears that light winds and low seas will not return to our
marine area until late in the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
With only 20-40 percent PoPs in the fcst for the next few days, no
widespread heavy rains are expected to cause any Riverine problems
for the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   94  71  92  70  91 / 30  20  30  30  20
Panama City   92  76  90  74  89 / 20  20  20  20  20
Dothan        92  68  92  67  89 / 20  20  20  20  20
Albany        93  69  91  67  89 / 20  20  30  20  20
Valdosta      95  69  93  68  91 / 30  20  40  30  20
Cross City    94  70  91  69  90 / 30  20  30  20  30
Apalachicola  91  76  89  76  89 / 20  20  30  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

Near Term/Aviation...DVD
Short Term/Hydrology...Gould
Long Term...Fournier
Marine...Gould/DVD
Fire Weather...Barry