Damaging Wind in Florida, November 1, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1020 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2013

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
The cold front continues to approach southeast Alabama this morning
and will move east through the day. The 12z KTAE sounding reveals
decent but not extraordinary shear with 0-1 km shear around 25 knots
and 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. Analyzed instability is not
particularly high this morning, but the local hi-res models as well
as the NAM show SBCAPE values approaching 1000 j/kg this afternoon.
Radars as of 9 am are fairly quiet with a broken band of showers
entering portions of southeast Alabama. All of the guidance
indicates that shower activity will expand in coverage through the
day with isolated convection possible. Given the aforementioned CAPE
and shear, we still cannot rule out an isolated, brief strong storm,
but the probability is very low. The main limiting factor is the
lack of significant forcing as the main height falls and parent
surface low are well away from the area up in southern Canada.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Sunday]...
With the more potent Sfc and Upper level low marching steadily NE
through the Great Lakes and New England, and the secondary piece
of Upper level energy more focused on developing an MCS in the
northern Gulf of Mexico, it appears that our approaching Cold
frontal boundary will be increasingly progressive across our CWA
tonight. Therefore, trimmed back PoPs and QPF from W to E
especially between 06 and 12 UTC where most of the remaining
showers (and possibly a lingering storm or 2 should be confined to
the ESE 1/3 to 1/4 of the region. Much cooler and drier air should
begin to build in behind the front on Saturday, setting the stage
for a fair and seasonable day to begin the weekend with highs in
the mid to upper 70s, with low temps dropping into the mid 40s in
many areas by Sun. morning. For the start of the FSU-Miami
football game, temps should begin in the mid 60s, but fall into
the mid to upper 50s towards the end of the game. Highs on Sunday
are expected to only reach the lower 70s, albeit with plenty of
sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night through Thursday]...
The long term period starts off fairly benign with below climo
temps and PoPs as deep layer ridging builds behind the cold front
passing through our area Friday into Saturday. Surface high
pressure quickly moves north and east, so beginning early next
week our temperatures will gradually rebound to right around
normal for this time of year. Towards the end of the period,
namely late Wednesday into Thursday, another cold front will
approach our area from the west bringing an increase in PoPs.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 12z Saturday] Showers with a slight chance of
thunderstorms will increase from west to east through the day as a
cold front moves through the area. MVFR cigs will also
overspread the area with brief IFR cigs also possible. Some gusty
winds between 20-25 knots are expected ahead of the front by the
late morning and afternoon hours, especially near showers.

&&

.MARINE...
With the approaching cold front, winds and seas are expected to
remain at cautionary conditions into this evening before we have a
brief lull behind the front through Saturday. Thereafter, winds and
seas are now expected to reach Small Craft Advisory levels beginning
Saturday night and lingering into early next week as a strong ridge
of high pressure builds in from the northwest.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Minimum relative humidity values will be around 30 percent with
breezy northwest winds in the wake of a cold front on Saturday.
However, other fire weather parameters will remain above critical
levels and red flag conditions are not expected. Dispersion values
will be high across most of the tri-state region on Saturday and
portions of north Florida Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
With the weakening of the approaching Cold front, Storm total
rainfall is now expected to be generally around 1 inch or less with
only an few isolated higher amounts possible. This should not cause
any concerns on our area rivers and streams.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   81  57  78  45  73 / 90  70  10   0   0
Panama City   80  59  77  50  70 / 90  40   0   0   0
Dothan        78  51  75  43  70 / 90  20   0   0   0
Albany        80  53  76  44  71 / 90  40  10   0   0
Valdosta      80  60  77  45  71 / 90  80  10   0   0
Cross City    83  66  78  44  74 / 50  80  20   0   0
Apalachicola  80  61  77  50  70 / 90  70  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

Near Term...DVD
Short Term/Marine/Hydrology...Gould
Long Term...DVD/Navarro
Aviation...DVD
Fire Weather...Barry