Rip Current in Florida, May 14, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...

...COOL AND CONTINUED DRY TONIGHT WITH WARMER TEMPS ON WED...

CURRENT-WED...EAST-WEST ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PENINSULA WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY
THIS EVENING AND SETTLE TO 5 MPH OR LESS OVERNIGHT MOST PLACES. EAST
OR EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ON WED WILL REMAIN 10 MPH OR LESS OVER THE
INTERIOR/VOLUSIA COAST AND 10-15 MPH ACROSS THE SPACE AND TREASURE
COASTS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND WILL UNDERCUT MOS
GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO. EXPECT MINS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
INTERIOR...VOLUSIA/NORTH BREVARD COASTS AND LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF THE CAPE...THOUGH PROBABLY HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
BEACHSIDE. ANOTHER PLEASANT AFTERNOON ON TAP FOR WED THOUGH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE
COAST AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER THE INTERIOR...WARMEST
TEMPERATURES NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.

THU-FRI...THE ATLC RIDGE WILL AXIS LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH LATE
WEEK WITH CONTINUED LOW LVL E/SE FLOW. 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF GUIDANCE
KEEPS DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS CENTRAL FL WHICH SHOULD KEEP DRY
FORECAST INTACT TO END THE WORK WEEK. 12Z NAM HINTING AT SOME LATE
DAY STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR ON FRIDAY WITH ENOUGH SE LOW LVL
MOISTURE RETURN BUT WILL LEAN TWD DRIER GFS/ECMWF AND NOT INTRODUCE
POPS UNTIL THE WEEKEND. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S IMMEDIATE
COAST TO MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE INTERIOR.

SAT-TUE...
PERSISTENT SERLY BREEZE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TRAILING AXIS OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE W ATLC. THESE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DRAW MOISTURE UP FROM THE FL STRAITS/NW CARIB...BRINGING
PRECIP BACK INTO THE FCST BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. POPS WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 30PCT GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLY DRY NATURE OF THE
APPROACHING AIRMASS...AS WELL AS THE TENDENCY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
TO CONCENTRATE OVER THE W PENINSULA IN A PREVAILING ERLY FLOW.
MAX/MIN TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL AVG.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT-WED...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO THE NORTH WILL
GRADUALLY SETTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA ON WED. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH ENE/E WINDS THIS EVENING VEERING
TO ESE ON WED. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS MOST
PLACES BUT MAY FIND SOME 10-15 KT WINDS OFFSHORE SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET. SEAS MAINLY 3-4 FT.

ATLC RIDGE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE AREA WILL KEEP E/SE WINDS TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-3 NEAR SHORE AND 3-4 FT OFFSHORE INTO THE
WEEKEND. ISOLATED AFTERNOON LIGHTNING STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
MAINLY STAY OVER THE PENINSULA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...SEVERAL HOURS OF
CRITICAL RH VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT OCCURRING OVER THE INTERIOR AND
VOLUSIA COAST. RH'S WILL SLOWLY RECOVER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
20 FT NE/ENE WINDS 10-14 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND UNDER 10 MPH
INTERIOR.

WED...CRITICAL RH VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT POSSIBLE 4-6 HOURS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. E/ESE 20 FT WINDS GENERALLY 10
MPH OR LESS OVER THE INTERIOR AND 10-14 MPH SOUTH ALONG THE COAST
FROM THE CAPE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVERHEAD THE EASTERLY
COMPONENT FOR TRANSPORT WINDS WILL FALL MAINLY BELOW 10 MPH OVER
MOST OF THE AREA.

MIN RHS WILL DIP BELOW 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR THU/FRI
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BELOW 15 MPH. SOME GUSTINESS WITH DIFFUSE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND EACH AFTERNOON. ERC VALUES MAY
CONTINUE TO CREEP UPWARD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH GENERAL LACK OF
RAINFALL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  58  83  61  82 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  60  85  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  62  81  64  82 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  63  80  62  82 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  57  87  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  59  86  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  63  85  63  86 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  61  80  63  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....VOLKMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1005 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-141500-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1005 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
LONG DURATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST OVER THE
INTERIOR COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. BRUSH FIRES WILL START EASILY
FROM MOST CAUSES AND SHORT DISTANCE SPREADING OF EMBERS WILL BE
COMMON. ANY UNATTENDED FIRES ARE LIKELY TO ESCAPE. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES A LITTLE HIGHER NEAR THE COAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A LOW TO MODERATE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST AT THE
BEACHES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOW
HUMIDITY ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

SEDLOCK/KELLY