Lightning Strikes in Florida, June 8, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
932 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013

.UPDATE...

A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO,
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION
CONTAINS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 2.1 TO 2.3. MOST
SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS, INCLUDING THE SPC SREF, INDICATE
THAT THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
TODAY IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA, MAINLY FROM LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO TO PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTIES. HOWEVER, THERE IS
STILL A POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION TO EXTEND INTO MIAMI-DADE, AS THE
AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF OF PALM BEACH
COUNTY IS FORECAST TO EXTEND INLAND AND POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY, THE MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IS FORECAST TO STAY MORE
TOWARD THE INTERIOR. A LITTLE MORE UNIFORM SE FLOW FOR TODAY COULD
HELP MAINTAIN THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AREAS FURTHER
INLAND IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY.

BASED ON THIS REASONING, THE FLOOD WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL
SOUTHERN BROWARD AND NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS THE WATERS FROM YESTERDAY'S RAINS CONTINUE TO RECEDE.
HOWEVER, RESIDENTS SHOULD BE URGED TO STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES.

POPS AND WEATHER HAVE ALSO BEEN UPDATED FOR AREAS OF BROWARD AND
PALM BEACH COUNTY TO REFLECT THE FORMATION OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 900 AM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013/

AVIATION...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
AROUND NOON AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY POSSESS SIGNIFICANT CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS. THE TIMING OF SHOWERS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SO VCTS IS
BEING CARRIED BETWEEN 17-0Z AT ALL TAF SITES.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION. LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY
WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE NEARLY EAST BY TONIGHT...AND DIMINISH TO
AROUND 5 KTS. AT APF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SEA BREEZE BETWEEN 5 TO
10 KNOTS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALSO.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013/

.RETURNING TO MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER CONDITIONS BY END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

SHORT TERM...
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS TO MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE STEERING FLOW TO BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVER
THE AREA TODAY...WHILE KEEPING THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH
PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 TO 2.1 INCHES OVER THE AREA. SO SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND WEST PALM BEACH AREAS.

DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH PWATS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY...HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THE AREA WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. SO WILL MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING IN
THE ZONES AND MORNING HWO PACKAGE FOR TODAY.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
STEERING FLOW TO BECOME EASTERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY ALONG WITH SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
EAST. SO WILL KEEP SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA...BEFORE LOWERING THE POPS DOWN TO ISOLATED TO LOW
END SCATTERED ON MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS EACH DAY.

LONG TERM...
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS
FORECAST BY THE LONG RANGE MODELS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE MOVING
SOUTH INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE STEERING FLOW TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE SWINGING TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION
LATE NEXT WEEK. SO THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TYPICAL
AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND
SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS. BEST PROB OF ACTIVITY IS AT PBI...WITH
LOWEST AT APF. HAVE KEPT VCSH IN TAFS DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
PROB OF THUNDER IS 30-40 PERCENT. SOUTH WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHEAST THEN EAST BY TONIGHT. EXPECT SPEEDS
BELOW 15 KTS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TODAY BEFORE SWINGING TO A EASTERLY
DIRECTION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH SPEEDS BELOW 15 KNOTS. THIS
WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER
BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO BOATING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SO NO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FIRE
WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  74  87  77 / 70 50 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  77  87  79 / 60 40 20 20
MIAMI            89  76  88  78 / 50 30 30 20
NAPLES           88  74  90  74 / 50 30 40 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...71/JE
AVIATION/RADAR...52/PS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
945 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
090000-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
945 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013

...FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA MAIN CONCERN AGAIN TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON ATLANTIC
BEACHES.

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM
LATE MORNING AND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH COUNTY. BUT
A GOOD CHANCE REMAINS ELSEWHERE ALSO. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING ARE THE GREATEST THREATS. GUSTY
WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

FLOODING: MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
RAIN RATES WITH SOME OF THE STORMS TODAY COULD EXCEED 3 TO 5 INCHES
PER HOUR. THEREFORE, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN AREAS
WHERE RAIN MOVES REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME SPOT OVER TIME WHICH COULD
RESULT IN STREET FLOODING AND WATER ENTERING CARS OR EVEN BUILDINGS.
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE FOR EAST COAST METRO AREAS FROM NORTHEAST
MIAMI NORTH TO PALM BEACH.

AT THIS TIME HEAVIEST RAIN TODAY IS MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH AND
INLAND FROM NORTHEAST MIAMI DADE WHICH OBSERVED RECORD RAIN ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THAT AREA ALSO. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENTS RAINS
FROM FRIDAY, YOU DO NOT NEED NEARLY AS MUCH RAIN TO HAVE SIMILAR
IMPACTS ACROSS THAT AREA TODAY. SO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
INFORMATION IN CASE RAIN BEGINS TO AFFECT THAT AREA IN PARTICULAR.

TEMPERATURES: HEAT INDICES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE FROM 100-102 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS MAY INCREASE SUNDAY DUE TO STRONGER
ONSHORE WINDS.

HEAT INDICES...ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA...MAY EXCEED
100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER
INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

PS