Rip Current in Florida, July 7, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
956 AM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

.UPDATE...
GUIDANCE AS OF 6Z DEPICTED RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA AND SUPPRESSED RAIN CHANCES FURTHER...THUS POPS HAVE BEEN
REDUCED TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY
OVER WESTERN AREAS. OTHER FORECAST CHANGES HAVE BEEN RESTRICTED TO
HOURLY GRIDS...TO REFLECT CURRENT/RECENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013/

AVIATION...
MODERATE ESE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHER GUSTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE VCSH
THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AS
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ASHORE FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT INLAND AND TOWARD THE APF SITE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW
IN PLACE. THE LATEST MODEL RELECTIVITIES LINE UP WELL WITH THIS AND
SHOW MAINLY ISOLATED/SCT COVERAGE TOWARD THE GULF COAST BEGINNING
AROUND 18Z AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE
TRENDING DOWN.

AVIATION...BNB/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013/

DISCUSSION...
EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY AGAIN. A SLIGHTLY
DEEPER PLUME OF MOISTURE SHOULD PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
BAHAMAS. THIS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY AND WITH
EASTERLY FLOW...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE RELEGATED TO THE
INTERIOR AND GULF COASTAL AREAS. BY MONDAY...AN H5 LOW IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS LEAVING THE SOUTH FLORIDA
PENINSULA IN A STABLE SUBSIDENCE ZONE. KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE GULF COASTAL AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS ARE STILL IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THIS H5 LOW ACROSS
THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW THEN SHOWS
SIGNS OF SLOWING BEFORE TREKKING NORTH ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THURSDAY BEFORE GETTING ABSORBED INTO A BROAD
H5 SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE LOW PASSES
BY...IT IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOW
DEPICTING SLIGHTLY WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAN IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...SO CURRENTLY BELIEVE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY STRONG STORMS
SHOULD BE LIMITED.

TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...MODELS DEPICT A SURFACE TROUGH WORKING
ITS WAY PAST JAMAICA AND TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AS IT
DOES...THIS WILL SPREAD DEEP MOISTURE NORTHWARD KEEPING THE SOUTH
FLORIDA AREA IN A MOIST PATTERN WITH PWATS BACK OVER 2 INCHES AGAIN.

MARINE...
EAST WINDS JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WILL PERSIST
INTO AT LEAST MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS AT OR ABOVE 2 FEET
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS INTO MID-WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
AREA WITH EASTERLY WINDS PREVAILING. THEREFORE MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  88  78  88 / 10 10 20 50
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  89  78  89 / 10 10 20 50
MIAMI            78  89  78  89 / 10 10 20 50
NAPLES           75  92  74  92 / 10 20 20 40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL BROWARD-
     COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...23/SK
AVIATION/RADAR...54/BNB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
910 AM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
080200-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
910 AM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES...
...ISOLATED STORMS WESTERN AREAS TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND SURF WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES.
THEREFORE...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST
COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING,GUSTY WINDS, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

WIND: WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

TEMPERATURES: HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 105
DEGREES TODAY OVER INLAND COLLIER COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AND WEST. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD EACH
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER.

STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF
SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
EASTERLY WINDS AND SURF.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND FLOODING TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

BAXTER