Wildfire in California, May 30 to 31, 2013

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 PM PDT THU MAY 30 2013

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAISE THE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND...TO PEAK ON SATURDAY.
THE HIGH SLOWLY EXITS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK TO LOWER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY MONDAY...AND TO BELOW THE
SEASONAL NORMALS INTO MIDWEEK AS THE COOLER MARINE AIR MOVES IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...DECREASING WIND TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW DECREASES. STILL
BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS EXPECTED IN THE SAME AREAS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WENT AHEAD AND THREW OUT A WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE CENTRAL COAST AND ANTELOPE
VALLEY AND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY FOR THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND I5
CORRIDOR.

MOST COAST AND COASTAL VALLEY AREAS TODAY SAW UP TO 10 DEGREES OF
COOLING DUE TO THE DECREASED NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINS.
EXPECTING FRIDAY TO BE ABOUT THE SAME, EXCEPT CONTINUED WARMER FOR
FAR INTERIOR AREAS LIKE THE MOUNTAINS, ANTELOPE VALLEY, AND INTERIOR
SLO COUNTY. WARMING ALOFT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THE MARINE
INVERSION AND ESTABLISH A MORE SOLID LOW CLOUD COVERAGE FOR SOUTHERN
COASTAL AREAS AND STRETCHING AS FAR NORTH AS VENTURA COUNTY.

SATURDAY'S WARMUP STARTING TO LOOK MORE LIKE A WARMUP FOR THE
INTERIOR AND CENTRAL COAST BUT NOT SO MUCH FOR THE VENTURA/LA COAST.
GFS AND NAM STILL AT ODDS BUT NEITHER MODEL REALLY SUGGESTING
ANYTHING MORE THAN A VERY LIGHT OFFSHORE EVENT AT BEST, AND AT WORST
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A STUBBORN MARINE LYR ALONG THE COAST AND A
MUTED WARMUP FOR COASTAL VALLEYS. MARINE LYR SHOULD SQUASH UNDER A
1000 FT SATURDAY MORNING BUT A WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION AND A GOOD
ONSHORE PUSH BY AFTERNOON COULD KEEP THOSE CLOUDS HUGGING THE
LA/VENTURA COAST WITH MINIMAL WARMUP. CENTRAL COAST AREAS SHOULD BE
IMMUNE TO THIS FOR ONE MORE DAY WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTHEAST
FLOW IN THE MORNING KEEPING THE STRATUS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. IN
FACT, COULD EASILY SEE SOME RECORDS BROKEN UP THERE SATURDAY, THOUGH
THE RECORD OF 107 AT PASO ROBLES PROBABLY OUT OF REACH. LA/VENTURA
RECORDS MAY BE SAFE DUE TO THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW NOW EXPECTED,
THOUGH WARMER VALLEYS SHOULD STILL GET TO AROUND 100.

SATURDAY'S WARMUP EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO ONE DAY AS THE TROF
OFFSHORE WILL DEEPEN SUNDAY AND CREATE A STRONG ONSHORE PUSH. IN
ADDITION, SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE BAY AREA WILL FORCE THE
STRATUS TO SURGE NORTH AROUND PT CONCEPTION AND FILL IN ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN 10-20
DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL COAST. LOW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
START OF A FAMILIAR JUNE TREND THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...THE TROF EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW NEAR THE
COAST OF PT CONCEPTION BY TUESDAY AND PRETTY MUCH REMAINS THERE
THROUGH THE WEEK. AS A RESULT THE WEATHER NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE VERY
JUNE-LIKE WITH LOW CLOUDS WELL INTO THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AND
LIMITED AFTERNOON COASTAL CLEARING. DAYTIME TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS, 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE COAST AND 70S/80S FOR THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...30/2325Z...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
DISTRICT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST FROM LA COUNTY SOUTHWARD
TO SAN DIEGO COUNTY. EDDY CIRCULATION IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
SPIN UP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LA COUNTY COAST
OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS ACROSS KLAX AND KLGB
WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF IFR/MVFR CIGS REACHING KOXR AND
KBUR AROUND SUNRISE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING ACROSS KSBP...KSMX...KWJF...AND KPMD.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING TO KLAX OVERNIGHT...WITH
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF IFR CIGS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT DUE TO EDDY CIRCULATION BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT.

KBUR...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD...HOWEVER MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN BRIEF IFR CIGS AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
112 PM PDT THU MAY 30 2013

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-311300-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
112 PM PDT THU MAY 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY AND TONIGHT

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST,
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR, AND ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE
INNER WATER ZONE BETWEEN POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS AND POINT SAL WILL
ALSO BE AFFECTED WITH GALE WINDS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
WELL. A HIGH RIP RISK IS ALSO IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE BEACHES OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES.

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE WHUS76 KLOX - MWWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK......SEE FZUS56 KLOX - SRFLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT WARMING EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WHERE SOME
VALLEYS AND LOWER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS COULD REACH TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES...TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL BE
CLOSE TO 100 AS WELL. THE BEACHES WILL ALSO BE A BIT WARMER...BUT
SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S FOR WARMEST TEMPERATURES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MW