Funnel Cloud in Arizona, September 14, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 AM MST SAT SEP 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT DECREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN ITS WAKE
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA OVER THE WEEKEND BUT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE STATE
BUT MODELS SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HAVE BUMPED UP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS LOW END ACTIVITY.

FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME SO
ISOLATED THAT WE WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS FROM THE
FORECAST EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS AND THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL CONTINUE.

BY NEXT WEEKEND...A STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES AND THE FIRST
COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON MAY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCT -SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN (6500 FEET) FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTH AND EAST
TODAY. ISOLD STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE REST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY. THESE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 01Z. ISOLD MVFR CONDITIONS
IN THE HEAVIEST STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. SKIES
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AFT 03-04Z TONIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM/DB
AVIATION.......MAS/DJO

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF