Hail in Arizona, August 14, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
243 PM MST WED AUG 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE REPOSITIONING OF THE
UPPER HIGH LAST NIGHT HAD CONTRIBUTED TO A GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
EXPAND A BIT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER
DARK. THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE THE RESULT OF THE UPPER HIGH OVERHEAD...MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ADEQUATE TO JUSTIFY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON. ISOLATED ONES WILL BE THE
RULE WEST OF TUCSON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TO CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT
3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS WERE STILL SHOWING SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW WAS PROGGED TO ENTER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IN A NUTSHELL...MOISTURE SHOULD STILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 16/00Z.
TS DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
EVENING...WITH STRONGEST INSTABILITY E OF THE KTUS-KOLS LINE. STORMS
WILL PROPAGATE W/NW ALONG OUTFLOWS. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
REDUCED VIS TO BOTH KTUS/KOLS. STORMS ARE BEING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS S OF KTUS THOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA AS GOOD.
THEREFORE...STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP NEAR KTUS SO HAVE LEFT
OUT OF TAFS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE LAST NIGHT WILL RESULT IN A
GREATER THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ALSO
BOOST THE RH VALUES A BIT...ESPECIALLY THE OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
FROM THURSDAY ONWARD...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION EACH DAY. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
WINDS...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
332 PM MST WED AUG 14 2013

AZZ507-513-142300-
DRAGOON/MULE/HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
BISBEE/CANELO HILLS/MADERA CANYON AZ-UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY
INCLUDING SIERRA VISTA/BENSON AZ-
332 PM MST WED AUG 14 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ
AND WESTERN COCHISE COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM MST...

AT 328 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SIERRA VISTA...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SIERRA VISTA...HUACHUCA
CITY...FORT HUACHUCA AND WHETSTONE.

LAT...LON 3165 11049 3175 11028 3154 11015 3148 11029
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 141DEG 11KT 3156 11027