Flood in Alaska, May 27 to 29, 2013

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
213 AM AKDT MON MAY 27 2013

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER BY THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE SURGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN ALASKA THAT WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES HOVERED IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
INCREASE A FEW MORE DEGREES FROM WED THROUGH FRI BEFORE A SLIGHT
COOLING IN TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS PICKED UP COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA
ON SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST. MOST OF ITS ENERGY WILL MOVE
INTO THE BERING SEA. BUT ANOTHER SMALL PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AND COME BACK INTO MAINLAND ALASKA AND MAY
BE THE IMPETUS FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM
TUE THROUGH THU.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE COOL AIR MASS MOVE DOWN FROM THE
ARCTIC NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD SUPPLY SNOW TO THE ARCTIC COAST WHILE
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED THROUGHOUT THE
EASTERN INTERIOR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DRYING OUT NEARLY ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA SOUTH
OF THE BROOKS RANGE. THIS IS ALLOWING RH VALUES TO PLUMMET BELOW
15% IN SEVERAL AREAS WILL RAISE THE CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS TRIBUTARIES AND SMALL STREAMS REMAIN UNDER THE WATCH OR
ADVISORY BECAUSE OF RAPID SNOW MELT. ICE JAM IN PLACE DOWN RIVER
OF GALENA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND BACK UP WATER INTO THE VILLAGE
OF GALENA.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-
AKZ226-AKZ227.

FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ216-AKZ220-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ226.
&&

CF MAY 13