Blizzard in Alaska, February 10 to 11, 2013

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
105 PM AKST SUN FEB 10 2013

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH 48 HOURS. THE GFS
MAINTAINS A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
INTERIOR FROM 48 TO 72 HRS. BEYOND 72 HRS MODELS START SHOWING
MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

ALOFT...490 DAM CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER THE ST MATTHEW ISLAND
AREA INTO TUESDAY THEN MOVE NORTH OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA THEN
OVER THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST BY FRIDAY WITH THE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH TO A 514 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
A RELATIVELY FAST SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC...GULF OF ALASKA...AND SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE
THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA THEREAFTER.

SURFACE...DOUBLE LOW COMPLEX OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH. 986 MB LOW WILL
SETTLE OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA THIS EVENING THEN DISSIPATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER ST MATTHEW ISLAND.
THE SECOND LOW OVER THE PENINSULA IS FILLING AND WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL WORK INLAND
EXTENDING FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA TO COOK INLET THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN EXTEND FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA TO FORT YUKON
BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN FROM THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST TO MACKENZIE BAY. A 990 MB LOW THAT HAS BEEN MOVING
EAST JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
KODIAK ISLAND THIS EVENING THEN TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND OVERNIGHT
AS A 995 MB. A SHARP NORTH SOUTH RIDGE WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF
THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THEN MOVE TO THE WEST CENTRAL
INTERIOR BY MONDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE THEN CONTINUES NORTH TO THE
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

ARCTIC COAST...CONTINUES TO BE QUIET...WARMER AIR HAS MOVED NORTH
OVER THE AREA SO NO WIND CHILL ISSUES TONIGHT. A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER GRADIENT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE LOW ON
THE WEST COAST MOVES NORTH. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FROM POINT
LAY SOUTH ON THE NORTHWEST COAST. SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE WITH THE
OCCLUSION BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH AT THIS TIME.

WEST COAST...DIFFICULT SITUATION WITH THE DECAYING LOW MOVING OVER
THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND THE OCCLUSION PUSHING NORTH. MOST SNOW
WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE YUKON DELTA...BUT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND INTERIOR AREAS TAPERING OFF
BY LATE EVENING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. EXPECT SNOW
TO PICK UP OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND AND THE NORTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA
AS THE LOW EVENTUALLY MOVES OVER THE BERING STRAIT OVERNIGHT AS IT
WEAKENS...THEN TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING. PINCH IN GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FROM KIVALINA NORTH AND THROUGH THE BERING
STRAIT...THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS THE PAST FEW DAYS.

INTERIOR...WIND ADVISORIES FOR DELTA AND AREAS SOUTH WILL GO AWAY
AS GRADIENT WEAKENS THIS EVENING. DISSIPATING LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE INTERIOR WILL BRING SOME
FLURRIES AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF SNOW. NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AROUND FAIRBANKS BUT AREAS NORTH OF
FAIRBANKS AND ALONG THE BROOKS RANGE COULD SEE UP TO 2 INCHES. LOW
MOVING INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL YUKON TERRITORY MONDAY BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT WITH A TREND TOWARD COOLER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ226.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ212.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

SDB FEB 13