Flash Flood in West Virginia, August 1, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
900 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
BUT DISSIPATE OVER WEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

INCREASED POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
ALLOWING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER TO EXIT CWA. ALSO ALLOWED FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND MAIN GROUP OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE NAM...GFS AND WRFARW-RNK SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS
DIMINISHING AND WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING TONIGHT.
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY STILL SPARK ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOP EARLY TONIGHT TO AROUND MIDNIGHT. ADDED PATCHY FOG TO ISC
GRIDS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON
THURSDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST.

AT 640 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. MORE ADJUSTMENT
AS NIGHT PROGRESSES.

AT 309 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

COLUMN IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DRIER...THUS LESS DEVELOPMENT THAN
YESTERDAY AND EVEN LESS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. A FEW STORMS HAVE POPPED
UP THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE FALLEN OVER RATHER QUICKLY. WARMER AND
MORE SOUPY REGIME ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE AND PIEDMONT AND PERHAPS
MORE DEVELOPMENT THERE LATE PM EARLY EVENING IF SOME SORT OF
OUTFLOW ARRIVES FROM STORMS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS EXTREME SW VA AND NW NC THIS
EVENING...ATTM IT IS ALLOWING STORMS TO FIRE ACROSS E KY AND SW
WEST VA. SOME OF THESE CELLS MAY BE THE CATALYST FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS NW NC AND THE NC PIEDMONT SO
DID EXTEND POPS A LITTLE DEEPER INTO THE NIGHT. GROUND MAY STILL
BE WET ENOUGH FROM LAST NIGHT'S HVY RAIN ACROSS THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY TO GENERATE A FEW HOURS OF DENSE FOG RIGHT AROUND DAWN...OR
IF ANOTHER STORM HAPPENS TO MOVE OVER SIMILAR AREAS TONIGHT. WITH
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO FALL ANOTHER 3-5F THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIL
UPPER LEVEL FORCING...ONLY EXPECTING AN ISOLATED STORM ALONG THE
SW SPINE OF THE BLUE RIDGE OR THE PIEDMONT THURSDAY PM AT MOST. WITH
H85 TEMPS REACHING +20C TACK ON A FEW MORE DEGREES FOR MAX T IN
COMPARISON TO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OTHER THAN FOR A RENEGADE EVENING TSRA SW TIER THURSDAY EVENING
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
HIGH 5H HEIGHTS WILL START TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAK IMPULSES ROUND THE
UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASING PWATS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BACK BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS. PATTERN SHOULD EVOLVE BACK TO MORE OF A WEAK
TROFFINESS NATURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MODELS INDICATING
A BETTER SHORTWAVE HEADING INTO WEST BY SAT AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED
WITH HEATING AND MOISTURE MAY MAKE FOR MORE ORGANIZED TSRA COVERAGE
ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE WEST WHERE HAVE UPPED POPS BUT KEPT BELOW LIKELYS
FOR NOW. OTRW PC AND HOT ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING THE LOW/MID
90S EAST AND UPPER 80S MOUNTAINS. SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ALTHOUGH
STILL MUGGY GIVEN MORE CLOUDS/SHRA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY KEEP
HIGHS A BIT LOWER OVER THE WEST BUT STILL 90ISH SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WEAK UPPER TROFFINESS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LAST
PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE SUNDAY AHEAD OF A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA SAT EVENING AND AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPCLY MOUNTAINS WHERE WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
UPSTREAM SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND WITHIN THE PRECEDING DEEPER SW TO
NE MOISTURE LOBE. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH SE TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY
BEFORE EITHER STALLING NEARBY OR PERHAPS LIMPING THROUGH BY TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE 5H TROF LIFTS OUT TO THE NE. THUS LIKE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARY ALLOWING PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOW TO INTERACT
WITH HEATING/MOISTURE FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONVECTIVE LINE MAY TAKE THE FRONT TO THE SE
MONDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN SOME DRYING ESPCLY NORTH AND WEST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY BUT QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THEREFORE KEEPING
SOME LOW POPS SOUTHEAST BOTH DAYS AND ISOLATED CHANCES WESTERN
RIDGES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WEAK RETURN FLOW POP UP STORMS. OTRW
TEMPS RATHER CLOSE TO IF NOT A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MAINLY
80S EXCEPT AROUND 90 SE THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

ONE CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS HAVE EXITED THE ROANOKE VALLEY TO THE EAST INTO THE
FOOTHILLS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. EXPECT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVY RAINS HAS FALLEN
WITH THUNDERSTORMS. SOME IFR CIG/VIS MAY OCCUR AGAIN OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ANY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT BY LATE
MORNING.

THE DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK...SCATTERED IN NATURE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ISOLATED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DIURNAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS LIKELY WITH MOSTLY AFTERNOON/EVENING MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OUTSIDE OF THIS MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION...THE ONLY OTHER FLIGHT WEATHER
HAZARDS WOULD BE FROM OVERNIGHT VALLEY FOG. STORM'S MAY BE MORE
NUMEROUS ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 2012 WAS THE WARMEST JULY SINCE RECORD KEEPING BEGAN IN
ROANOKE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KM/PM
NEAR TERM...KK/KM
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...KK/KM
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
422 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-022030-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
422 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
844 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

WVZ042-020145-
MERCER WV-
844 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MERCER COUNTY...

AT 840 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
MERCER COUNTY NEAR MATOAKA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND PEA TO DIME-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM. EXPECT FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THIS
STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN OR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN
LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR KEGLEY AROUND 855 PM...CERES AROUND 905 PM...
PRINCETON AROUND 910 PM...ATHENS AROUND 915 PM...OAKVALE AROUND 935
PM AND WILLOWTON AROUND 945 PM.

LAT...LON 3750 8123 3741 8086 3738 8088 3735 8085
      3731 8092 3729 8097 3730 8100 3729 8103
      3728 8112 3738 8130

RAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
848 PM EDT WED AUG 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     HAIL             6 SSE ASPEN             36.96N 78.79W
08/01/2012  E1.00 INCH       CHARLOTTE          VA   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON WOODBURN LANE

&&

FISHER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
900 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

VAZ012-013-020200-
PULASKI VA-WYTHE VA-
900 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN PULASKI AND EASTERN
WYTHE COUNTIES...

AT 857 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF
MAX MEADOWS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. EXPECT FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO
NOT STAY IN THE OPEN OR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR GUNTON PARK AROUND 910 PM...GRAHAMS FORGE
AROUND 920 PM AND PATTERSON AROUND 935 PM.

LAT...LON 3705 8101 3705 8098 3707 8092 3711 8093
      3714 8086 3695 8059 3694 8063 3689 8071
      3685 8083 3685 8086 3703 8103

RAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
916 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

WVZ045-020200-
GREENBRIER WV-
916 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT GREENBRIER COUNTY...

AT 914 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES EAST OF
RUPERT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. EXPECT FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO
NOT STAY IN THE OPEN OR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR RENICK AROUND 950 PM...MAXWELTON AROUND 955
PM AND FRANKFORD AROUND 1000 PM. OTHER CITIES IN AND/OR NEAR THIS
THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE RAINELLE...ASBURY...LEWISBURG...AND FRANKFORD.

LAT...LON 3794 8011 3784 8018 3780 8023 3778 8022
      3776 8025 3773 8026 3770 8028 3791 8073
      3805 8082 3810 8075 3809 8071 3814 8062

RAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
941 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

VAZ058-020215-
HALIFAX VA-
941 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HALIFAX COUNTY...

AT 940 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES EAST OF
SOUTH BOSTON...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. EXPECT FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO
NOT STAY IN THE OPEN OR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR STAUNTON RIVER STATE PARK AROUND 950 PM...
HITESBURG AROUND 1000 PM AND VIRGILINA AROUND 1010 PM.

LAT...LON 3667 7870 3658 7871 3656 7873 3654 7872
      3654 7881 3675 7887 3679 7880 3682 7871
      3676 7867 3674 7869 3670 7865

RAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1010 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

VAZ013-020245-
PULASKI VA-
1010 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PULASKI COUNTY...

AT 1005 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER POPLAR
HILL...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM. IF YOU ARE OUT ON THE
WATER GET BACK TO LAND AND FIND A SAFE BUILDING OR SAFE VEHICLE.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR DUBLIN AROUND 1030 PM AND PARROTT AROUND 1040
PM.

LAT...LON 3708 8083 3719 8078 3721 8070 3723 8066
      3720 8060 3718 8059 3719 8058 3718 8056
      3716 8055 3697 8083

RAB