Wildfire in Washington, September 9 to 14, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
422 PM PDT Sun Sep 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds will continue through Monday as a strong cold front
moves through the area tonight bringing strong winds to the
region and much cooler temperatures. High pressure will return to
the region Tuesday, and a gradual warming trend is expected
Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday NT: We continued to focus on by far what
the most important part of the fcst is, which is the ongoing fire
weather issues sparked by lightning this morning, and maintained by
very windy weather and low humidity through Monday. The first vort
max has nearly exited the region, and has been responsible for
helping to maintain the isolated to scattered thunder threat the
last few hours across the Nrn Wa and N Id Mtn zones. We should see
a quick end to this thunder threat the next couple hours as the
vort max ma quickly exits and the surface becomes capped as we
lose daytime heating.

The second wave Monday will have very little thunder...limited to
locations close to the BC border with Wa and Id. The main dilemma
was deciding what fuels (grasses, timber, etc) would be most
affected. Based on coordination with surrounding offices and the
NWCC and N Id agencies, the main fire threat will be that part of
the Id Panhandle south of Sandpoint.

Winds should be strong Monday, but humidity overall may be a bit
higher than today. Based on local criteria for fire watches
and/or warnings, the areal coverage of the threshold humidity in
the fcst would not be sufficiently large for a watch or warning.
However, given the recent grass/shrub fires from lightning, we decided
to use common sense and keep red flag warnings in effect through
Mon evening. If winds decrease quickly enough, Mon Nt could see
some freezing temps in the more sheltered valley of N Id and NE
Wa. bz

Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure near the surface low
pressure aloft due to trof containing quite a significant quantity
of cold conditionally unstable air lingers Tuesday. The influence
is mainly implied with the minor mention of isolated showers
mention over extreme northeast for Tuesday into Tuesday evening.
The cold trof aloft tracks east and away and allows for a dry
forecast with generally clear skies into Thursday. Significant
cooling with some near freezing minimum temperature forecast for
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning mostly in valleys north of a line
from near Lucerne,WA to Hayden, ID but some pockets near
Turnbull/Cheney area and south on minor portions of the Idaho and
Washington Palouse are also possible. Indeed the Tuesday day
maximum temperatures and Tuesday night/Wednesday morning minimum
temperature forecast will be the coolest part of the seven day
forecast as into Wednesday and beyond a slow and gradual warming
trend is apparent. Ad the upper level jet is still in close
proximity some locations will be locally breezy/gusty Tuesday into
Tuesday evening. /Pelatti

Thursday night through Sunday: High pressure firmly in place over
the western US will bring temperatures on Friday into the 80s,
which is about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. A
shortwave from the Gulf of Alaska skirts by to the north which
flattens the ridge a bit. The model consensus shows just a slight
cooling trend from this wave, but temperatures remain just above
normal. The 12Z ECMWF model came in with a much different
solution, so much so that it was disregarded at this point. The
ECMWF takes the Gulf of AK wave and develops it significantly,
dropping it into our area over the weekend. This would result in a
MUCH colder Sunday than is currently forecast. Will wait for one
or two more model runs before committing to this kind of a
forecast. RJ

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Thunderstorm activity confined to northeast Washington ad
the Northern Panhandle this afternoon continues to decrease with
time and should be minimal by 3Z Monday. A marine push will
bring gusty winds to the area, especially KEAT. Blowing dust is
possible in the Columbia Basin into the early evening. After skies
clear overnight the next front will move into the area later
overnight. This will bring mainly mid clouds with possibly some
sprinkles. The main weather with this front will be strong winds on
Monday with blowing dust.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        52  69  41  65  40  73 /   0  20  10  10  10   0
Coeur d'Alene  49  68  40  64  37  70 /   0  20  10  10  10   0
Pullman        49  69  34  65  31  72 /   0  20  10  10  10   0
Lewiston       56  76  49  73  45  79 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Colville       48  70  38  70  36  77 /  10  30  10  10  10   0
Sandpoint      50  66  38  63  34  70 /  10  30  20  10  10   0
Kellogg        46  63  41  60  39  68 /  10  40  10  10  10   0
Moses Lake     53  75  43  71  40  77 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      55  74  50  72  46  77 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           51  74  41  71  40  78 /  10  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Monday for Northern and
     Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101).

WA...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT Monday for East Washington
     Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East Washington
     Northeast (Zone 686)-East Washington Northern Columbia
     Basin (Zone 673)-East Washington Okanogan/Methow Valleys
     (Zone 684)-East Washington South Central Cascade Valleys
     (Zone 676).

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1205 PM PDT SUN SEP 9 2012

IDZ002-003-026-027-WAZ031>036-041>044-101300-
COEUR D'ALENE AREA-IDAHO PALOUSE-LEWISTON AREA-
LEWIS AND SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE COUNTIES-NORTHEAST BLUE MOUNTAINS-
LOWER GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-WASHINGTON PALOUSE-
MOSES LAKE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-SPOKANE AREA-WENATCHEE AREA-
EAST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES-OKANOGAN VALLEY-WATERVILLE PLATEAU-
424 AM PDT SUN SEP 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH IDAHO...
NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO...CENTRAL WASHINGTON...EAST CENTRAL
WASHINGTON...NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON...NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FIRE STARTS. BREEZY WINDS WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND
SURROUNDING VALLEYS WHICH COULD BRING RAPID FIRE SPREAD TO FIRES IN
THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS
TO THE COLUMBIA BASIN. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR 40 MPH ARE LIKELY...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DUST. FIRES IN THE RANGE LANDS OF
THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL BE SUBJECT TO QUICKLY SPREADING AND
EXPANDING.

IDZ001-004-WAZ037-038-101300-
NORTHERN PANHANDLE-CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-
1205 PM PDT SUN SEP 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH IDAHO...
NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A THREAT FOR FIRE
STARTS...BUT MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS CLOSE TO THE BC BORDER. BREEZY
WINDS WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED WHICH COULD BRING RAPID
FIRE SPREAD TO FIRES IN THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BRING RAPID FIRE SPREAD TO FIRES IN THE AREA.
A COOL AUTUMN-LIKE AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AFTER A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY. IN WIND SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
BELOW FREEZING JUST BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL CONCERNS SHOULD NOTE THIS
POSSIBILITY AND PREPARE ACCORDINGLY.