Hail and Lightning Strike in Vermont, June 8, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
139 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCE DIME SIZE HAIL AND LOCALIZED WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH...ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S TODAY
WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BY EVENING. ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES ON SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 128 PM EDT FRIDAY...MINOR ADDL UPDATES AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY TO LOWER MAX TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES. REST OF
FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PRIOR LATE MORNING DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPDATE TO CLOUD COVER AND T/TD DATASETS AS OF LATE MORNING
BASED OFF LATEST OBSERVATIONS. A QUICK LOOK AT FORECAST/OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS AND MODEL PARAMETERS GIVE ME INCREASED CONFIDENCE THAT
CONVECTION TODAY WON'T GET TOO OUT OF HAND...MAINLY DUE TO VRB MID
LVL CLOUDS AND COOLER PBL TEMPS. WE MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO REACH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN MANY AREAS...ESP AS INCOMING NAM SUGGESTS
CLOUDS/LIGHT SHOWERS ACT TO SUPPRESS PBL HEATING EVEN FURTHER.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM FRIDAY...CONVECTION WL QUICKLY DECREASE ACRS OUR CWA
THIS EVENING...AS S/W ENERGY SHIFTS EAST AND INSTABILITY
DISSIPATES. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA THRU
02Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
LOCATIONS WHICH RECEIVED RAINFALL DURING FRIDAY AFTN. TEMPS WL
COOL INTO THE 40S MTNS AND 50S VALLEYS. FOR SATURDAY...A SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACRS OUR CWA...ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING WARM FRNT. WL PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS ACRS THE SOUTHERN
SLV INTO THE DACKS...WITH NIL POPS ACRS THE NEK. THIS WAA AND
ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY AND ENERGY LOFT WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY FOR A POTENTIAL SHIFT NORTH. THIS WOULD CARRY THE THREAT
FOR ADDITIONAL POPS INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT AND ACRS MOST OF THE
DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES RATHER PRONOUNCED
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. THIS
SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THIS WILL BE
THE START OF A DRY PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 925/850MB DEVELOPS ON
SUNDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE
LOWER 80S. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION BECOMES EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
EXPECTED. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SHOULD
INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY OUT ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. UPPER TROUGH SHEAR APART AND LIFTS NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SO WE WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...THRU 00Z SAT...ALL SITES WILL SEE A MIX OF
VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF FRNTL BOUNDARY PUSHES
THRU AREA. BKN025-030 WITH ANY POTENTIAL THUNDER AND 3-5SM FOR
VSBY. AFT 00Z...MAINLY VFR SKIES W/ IFR FG FOR SLK/MPV W/ VSBY
1-2SM. AFT 10Z-12Z...VFR SKIES WITH INCR CLDS SLK/RUT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM. -SHRA DEVELOPING BY 18Z. WINDS SSW5-10KTS
BECM LGT/VAR AFT 00Z THURSDAY...BECM NNW 5-10KTS BY 12Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MORE SHOWERS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A MSS TO SLK TO MPV LINE WL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRNT LIFTS TWD OUR REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL IN ANY
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS WL CONT FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SFC BOUNDARY AND SFC HEATING MAY
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUES AFTN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...JN/TABER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-090800-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-
WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
352 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INTO VERMONT BY MID AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP
TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THESE
STRONG WINDS COULD CAUSE ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND A FEW TREE
LIMBS TO BE BLOWN DOWN. IN ADDITION...THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORMS WILL DECREASE
BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
246 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012

VTZ009-011-012-018-019-081945-
EASTERN ADDISON VT-EASTERN RUTLAND VT-WESTERN ADDISON VT-
WESTERN RUTLAND VT-WINDSOR VT-
246 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEASTERN RUTLAND...
NORTHWESTERN WINDSOR AND SOUTHEASTERN ADDISON COUNTIES...

AT 244 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR SALISBURY...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
BRANDON...GOSHEN...FOREST DALE...FLORENCE...HOLDEN...ROBINSON...
CHITTENDEN...PITTSFIELD...STOCKBRIDGE...

GET TO SAFETY IMMEDIATELY WHEN THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 4395 7306 4393 7300 4379 7260 4356 7282
      4387 7330 4401 7316

LOCONTO