A weak disturbance traveled along a warm frontal boundary that was moving across southern Vermont on August 4th. A few scattered thunderstorms developed during the afternoon as this warm front crossed Rutland county with one storm that produced isolated severe weather in Wallingford and Clarendon.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BTV wrote it up.
A weak disturbance traveled along a warm frontal boundary that was moving across southern Vermont on August 4th. A few scattered thunderstorms developed during the afternoon as this warm front crossed Rutland county with one storm that produced isolated severe weather in Wallingford and Clarendon.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Burlington, VT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 4, 2:30 PM EST, 18 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 330 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY....PRODUCING FEW TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT...SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION UNTIL ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 133 PM EDT SATURDAY...TWEAKED THE CLOUD FORECAST AT THE 130 PM UPDATE, OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKED VERY GOOD WITH RAIN CHANCES RAMPING UP TO CHANCE CATEGORY MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL TRAVEL NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. DIURNAL HEATING...SOUTHERLY FLOW FILTERING WARM...MOIST AIR WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY TO 1000 TO 2000 J/KG TODAY. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. 700 MB FLOW SUGGESTS STORMS WILL MOVE FROM SW TO NE AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THESE STORMS COULD ALSO HAVE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LEAD TO LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...WHILE THE WARM FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN NORTH OF THE AREA. AS STATED BEFORE WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY...HEAT INDICES WILL BE UP IN THE UPPER 90S...BUT EXPECT IT TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 228 PM EDT SATURDAY...ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PERIOD STILL APPEARS LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND THE AREA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. IN THE LOW LEVELS INCREASING MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 2") AND TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 80S WILL CREATE CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. CLOUD COVER AND WARMING MID LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY FURTHER CAPE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER IF SKIES CAN CLEAR GREATER THAN CURRENT THINKING...CAPE VALUES COULD BE HIGHER. AS UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE REGION...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND 0-1KM AND 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 30 KNOTS...LARGELY UNI- DIRECTIONAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN DURING MAX HEATING AND CREATE A GUSTY DAY AHEAD OF ANY CONVECTION WITH SOME 30-40 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH THE REGION...HOWEVER IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PASS UNTIL AFTER SUNSET...GENERALLY 00-06Z...IF NOT SLIGHTLY LATER...FROM WEST TO EAST. GIVEN INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM INITIATION EXPECTED DURING MAX HEATING...AS WELL AS TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. HAIL THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY HIGH FREEZING/WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND LACK OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE. AS CONVECTION ENTERS VERMONT LATER IN THE DAY...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LESSENING AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ELEVATED. THUS THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED...WITH HEAVY RAIN BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT. TO SUMMARIZE...EXPECTING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND 09Z SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT OF WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW YORK. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TAPERING OFF BY MORNING. WITH CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE...TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY TO FALL ALL THAT MUCH...GENERALLY INTO THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FAR EAST WILL END IN THE MORNING HOURS. SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN RIDGE INTO THE AREA AND REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THAT PERIOD. FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM WILL APPROACH DURING THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION...VERY SLOWLY. HAVE MENTIONED 40 POPS AT THIS TIME. GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADDED VCTS CB THIS AFTERNOON FOR KMPV/KSLK WHERE EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND AND AMEND AS NEEDED FOR INDIVIDUAL STORMS. OTHERWISE SCATTERED CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VSBY. LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO ADD VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND FOG OVERNIGHT FOR TAF POINTS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL, BUT AT THE MOMENT PROBABILITIES TOO LOW TO PUT IT IN. ANY FOG WOULD OCCUR AFTER 03Z. OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS. CHANCE OF GUSTY WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .MARINE... LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 1 FOOT OR LESS. WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BUILD TO 1 TO 3 FEET TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET BY SUNDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...KGM/NEILES NEAR TERM...HANSON SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...HANSON MARINE...WFO BTV
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 527 AM EDT SAT AUG 4 2012 NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-050930- NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON- SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON- WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE- WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA- WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR- EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND- 527 AM EDT SAT AUG 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THESE STORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE IN THE DAY AND EXIT EASTERN VERMONT BY MONDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG OR SEVERE...PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 253 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2012 VTZ011-012-018-019-042000- EASTERN ADDISON VT-EASTERN RUTLAND VT-WESTERN RUTLAND VT-WINDSOR VT- 253 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2012 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN RUTLAND...SOUTH CENTRAL ADDISON AND WEST CENTRAL WINDSOR COUNTIES... AT 248 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR EAST CLARENDON... MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THERE MAY BE RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO... RUTLAND...CENTER RUTLAND...MENDON...EAST PITTSFORD...GIFFORD WOODS STATE PARK...PITTSFORD...CHITTENDEN...FLORENCE...HOLDEN... PITTSFIELD...STOCKBRIDGE... LAT...LON 4384 7305 4380 7267 4338 7273 4344 7313 MUCCILLI
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
316 PM EDT SAT AUG 04 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0315 PM HAIL NORTH CLARENDON 43.57N 72.97W
08/04/2012 E0.50 INCH RUTLAND VT PUBLIC
HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
&&
EVENT NUMBER BTV1200363
MUCCILLIThe Burlington radar (KCXX), 116 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:48 UTC.
2 hail, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Two 8 to 10 inch diameter trees downed by thunderstorm winds.
Hail ranging from dime to quarter size fell in Clarendon.
Dime to penny size hail reported.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Vermont in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Vermont, August 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 398870, 398867, 398869.