The lack of rainfall during the last couple of days of October and first few days of November brought a reintensification of drought conditions, from Moderate (D1) to Severe (D2) for most of Starr County, Texas.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.
The lack of rainfall during the last couple of days of October and first few days of November brought a reintensification of drought conditions, from Moderate (D1) to Severe (D2) for most of Starr County, Texas.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 5, 11:11 PM CST, 49 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 1111 PM CST MON NOV 5 2012 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE RGV TUESDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR INITIALLY WITH SOME SCATTERED MID CLOUDS BEFORE PASSAGE. AFTERWARDS...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS. AFTER SUNSET...WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AS ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. SHRA/TSRA UNCERTAIN ATTM SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS BUT THE BETTER CHANCE WILL RESIDE AT KBRO/KHRL. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CST MON NOV 5 2012/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION...THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS GENERATED A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS WHICH QUICKLY DIED OUT WITH THE LOSS OF THE HEATING AFTER SUNSET. THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS A FAIRLY DRY ATMS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH A LITTLE BIT OF BETTER MOISTURE SHOWING UP IN A NARROW LAYER AROUND THE 850 MB LEVEL. AS THE NIGHTTIME INVERSION REFORMS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PATCHY CLD COVER IN THE 3 TO 5 KFT RANGE. ALSO AS THE SURFACE WINDS DROP AHEAD OF THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OVERNIGHT SOME PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG MAY FORM ACROSS THE LOWER RGV. MODEL RH VALUES REMAIN PRETTY LIMITED AHEAD OF AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT FRONT TOMORROW. SO EXPECT LIMITED CONV COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 153 PM CST MON NOV 5 2012/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...THE MAIN IMPACT IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT... ESPECIALLY DURING THE MIDNIGHT TO NOON TUESDAY TIME FRAME. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING QUICKLY CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. DESPITE THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WEDNESDAY UPPER RIDGING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL PUSH A MODEST SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND GRADUALLY RETURNING SFC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. BUMPED AFTERNOON HIGHS UP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY GIVEN THE MID TO LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES PROGGED AND THE PERSISTENT MOISTURE RETURN. WITH A FAIRLY SCOURED GULF REGION IT MAY TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO GET OUR SFC DEWPOINTS BACK UP AND WITH AMPLE HEATING UNDER GENERALLY CLOUD FREE SKIES EXPECT WE WILL GET PRETTY GOOD AFTERNOON HEATING DESPITE THE LOWERING SUN ANGLE AND SHORTER DAYS. DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT ANY REASONABLE PRECIP CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WELL. FRIDAY SFC AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD IN PLACE AS A POWERFUL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. SFC WINDS SHOULD INCREASE LEADING TO BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY PUSHING THE COASTAL WATERS INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR EXERCISE CAUTION BY THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG WEST CONUS STORM WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE WEEKEND WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A VERY POWERFUL TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BEFORE BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT ENTERS THE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE RESPONSE RESULTS IN A POWERFUL PLAINS CYCLONE...STRONG SIERRA MADRE LEE TROUGHING...AND A ROBUST COLD FRONT BY MONDAY MORNING. A LOOK AT ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING BUT SOME QUESTIONS ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL DIG. NEW 12Z ECMWF COMING IN LINE WITH THE GFS WHICH HAD BEEN STRONGER OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS STARTING TO BUILD CONFIDENCE IN A STRONGER OVERALL SYSTEM AND NUDGED THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF THAT CONCEPT...WITH STRONGER PREFRONTAL SOUTHEASTERLIES AND SOUTHERLIES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES FRIDAY AND NUDGED UP PRECIP CHANCES A LITTLE WITH THE FRONT. FRONT IS CURRENTLY PEGGED TO COME IN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...SO INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE AS HIGH...BUT IF THE FRONT IS AS STRONG AS ADVERTISED THE FORCING SHOULD END UP BEING MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION AND POSTFRONTAL STRATIFORM RAIN. BOTH DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF FORECASTING BORDERLINE GALE CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. KNOCKED TEMPS DOWN PRETTY SUBSTANTIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL WHICH IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN MEX GUIDANCE BUT CLOSER TO ENSEMBLE MEANS...ASSUMING MEX IS GIVING TOO MUCH CREDIBILITY TO CLIMO DURING THAT TIME. STILL OBVIOUSLY THIS IS A LONG WAY OFF STILL IN METEOROLOGICAL TIME...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR MAYBE A 15 TO 20 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND HARSH MARINE CONDITIONS...AND POSSIBLY A HEALTHY SHOT AT PRECIP. MARINE... TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 2 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 4 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER 1.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 12 CST/18 UTC. FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS COAST LATER TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT... WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LIKELY TUESDAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH STEADY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING PLAINS STORM SYSTEM. SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY APPROACH EITHER EXERCISE CAUTION OR ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALL OR PART OF THE DAY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SEAS BECOMING ROUGH DUE TO A LONG SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 55/59
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 433 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012 TXZ248>257-061130- ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY- INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON- 433 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASE BRIEFLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY...LEADING TO AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-061130- LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO- LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX- LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX- COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 433 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY...AND ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
No rainfall combined with dry weather deteriorated drought conditions in all but extreme southeast Starr County (which remained at D3, or Extreme) from Moderate (D1) to Severe (D2) for the second and third week of November.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, November 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 421571.