Tornadoes and Flash Flood in Texas, April 7, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
225 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN FACT...ONE STORM HAS
DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF ABILENE.  EXPECT A FEW OF THESE TO BECOME
SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTHEAST SO
WILL THE STORMS. THE STORM HAS DEVELOPED IN A REGION OF 3000 J/KG
CAPE VALUES. THE MAIN THREATS SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. COULD SEE A FEW MORE STORMS REDEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD
APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.

.LONG TERM...
BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A FEW COLD FRONTS AND DRYLINES
MOVING INTO...OUT OF...AND ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF WILL BE PLENTIFUL. WHAT THIS MEANS...WE'LL HAVE
CHANCES FOR MORE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS REDEVELOP TOMORROW EVENING IN THE BIG
COUNTRY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT. COULD SEE ANOTHER
SHOT OF STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE RED RIVER. A FEW COULD
BECOME SEVERE AS FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS.  WITH A WEAK RIDGE IN
PLACE...THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WOULD ALLOW
STORMS THAT DO FORM ALONG THE FRONT INTO HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON
COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INSERTED 30 POPS
ACROSS THAT REGION WITH POPS DROPPING OFF INTO THE TEENS ACROSS
THE SOUTH.

MAY SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF WC
TX ON WED AS MOISTURE FROM THE GULF SURGES NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH WARM THE FRONTAL ZONE.

THE NEXT APPROACHING DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY ACROSS WC TX. THIS CHANGE IN
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL ENABLE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO PUMP
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO WC TX THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS LEE SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES.

ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENINGS AS
DRYLINE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WC TX. MODELS PROG THE LARGE SCALE
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPREADING
STORMS ACROSS WC TX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HAVE INCLUDED POPS TO
SHOW THIS BUT WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE WILL
LIKELY SEE MANY ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 57  73  58  83  61 /  60  30  30  10  10
SAN ANGELO 	 61  76  56  85  59 /  60  30  20  10  10
JUNCTION 	 61  77  56  84  61 /  30  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

07/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
229 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-081930-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
229 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE BIG COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND
THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL REACH SEVERE
LEVELS...WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY IMPACT. IN
ADDITION...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SCATTERED STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. AGAIN...A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY BE REQUESTED ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND
HEARTLAND THIS EVENING.