Hail in Texas, April 14, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
922 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

.UPDATE...
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECLINED BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS SINCE SUNSET AND
AS A RESULT...THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT HAS LOWERED. HAVE UPDATED
THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...A
PACIFIC FRONT THAT HAS BEGUN TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS MAY PROMOTE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MORE SO WITHIN THE
MOIST AIR REGIME. IT IS THEREFORE POSSIBLE FOR CONVECTION TO
INITIATE ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BEING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012/

AVIATION...
FAIRLY STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PERSIST UNTIL 01Z OR 02Z
AT BOTH TAF SITES BEFORE SETTING SUN AIDS IN A BIT OF A DECREASE
IN WIND SPEEDS. DRYLINE LOCATED BETWEEN KLBB AND KCDS MAY BACK UP
TO THE WEST A BIT BEFORE BEING FORCED EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES FROM THE 4-CORNERS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL PROBABLY
SEE SOME TSRA DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTWARD MOVING DRYLINE LATER THIS
EVENING AS IT MOVES INTO MOIST AIR. GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A PERIOD
OF THUNDER AT KCDS AND HAVE RUN WITH A BRIEF TEMPO GROUP TO COVER.
WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN LATER THIS EVENING BEHIND THE DRYLINE BUT
INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD 20G30KT BY 15Z SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012/

SHORT TERM...
WHAT WOULD ORDINARILY BE JUST A WIND/FIRE WEATHER DAY STILL REMAINS
A BIT MORE COMPLEX.  DRYLINE HAS NOT PUSHED AS FAR EAST AS NWP HAD
SUGGESTED WITH STATIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS REMAINING WELL
INTO THE 50S.  FIELD OF AGITATED CUMULUS REMAINS APPARENT FROM NEAR
HALE CENTER UP INTO FLOYD COUNTY THENCE INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.
STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
THIS BEING THE CASE...HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.  WINDS ARE JUST NOW BEGINNING TO PICK UP
WITH VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE WEST AND BLOWING DUST HAS BEEN OBSERVED
IN LUBBOCK FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS WITH RED FLAG MINUTES ACCUMULATING
RAPIDLY OUT WEST.

PACIFIC FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY INITIATE AT
LEAST A THIN LINE OF STORMS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY THOUGH
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MATCH THE VELOCITIES SEEN TODAY.

LONG TERM...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A CHILLY MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NW ZONES WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE 30S...AND WE WILL
BE LOOKING OUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FROST IN THAT AREA. UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND SOME MODEL
SOLUTIONS DO GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE NRN ZONES AS
DECENT MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND LIFT CROSSES THE PANHANDLES. BUT
DRY LOW-LVLS LEAD US TO BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
BE VIRGA AND WE HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION. LINGERING SFC RIDGING
MONDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT...BUT TEMPS SHOULD BE
ON A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SW BREEZES RETURN
TUESDAY AND HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER
80S...WARMING A FEW DEGREES FURTHER ON WED. BY THURSDAY...UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS MAY DRAW UP ENOUGH
RETURN MOISTURE FOR A QUICK SHOT OF MOISTURE RETURN THURS MORNING
AND A DRYLINE DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES OF TSTM INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE APPEAR FAIRLY LOW
AT THIS POINT WITH LIFT DISPLACED TO THE NORTH AND DEEP MOISTURE
LACKING. THU WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY THOUGH WITH HIGHS
PUSHING 90F WEST OF THE DRYLINE. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE STILL IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING. ECMWF NOW GENERATES SOME PRECIP IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND DIVES SE
ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE GFS STILL TRACKS IT FARTHER NORTH. WILL
LEAVE THE FCST DRY FOR NOW BUT COOLER TEMPS LOOK LIKELY FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO EARLY EVENING GENERALLY WEST
OF THE ESCARPMENT.  WITH THE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED MOISTURE
LEVELS...AM CONSIDERING DROPPING RED FLAG WARNING FOR COUNTIES EAST
OF THE INTERSTATE 27 CORRIDOR.  WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY
OVERNIGHT. BUT REMAIN QUITE BREEZY WELL INTO SUNDAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS SLOWLY RELAX.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAPROCK AS VERY WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP
WEST OF THE DRYLINE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        37  60  38  71  40 /   0   0  10  10   0
TULIA         43  70  40  72  42 /   0   0  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     43  70  42  73  44 /  10   0  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     43  69  41  74  44 /   0   0  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       45  71  43  74  46 /  10   0  10  10   0
DENVER CITY   44  69  41  75  46 /   0   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    46  70  42  75  46 /  10   0  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     50  73  46  74  48 /  50   0  10  10  10
SPUR          49  74  45  74  48 /  30   0  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     54  76  48  75  50 /  50   0  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

29

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
912 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

TXZ021>044-160215-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
912 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

AS OF 9 PM THE DRYLINE HAD RETREATED WEST TO NEAR A TAHOKA TO
LUBBOCK TO SILVERTON LINE WHILE A PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAD MOVED
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE
AIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THERE CONTINUE TO BE INDICATIONS THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT ONCE IT MEETS THE
DRYLINE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS...PARTICULARLY ONCE THEY REACH THE BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND THE ROLLING PLAINS.