Hail in Tennessee, March 24, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
235 PM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER MID TN/WRN KY CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN
INFLUENCE ON THE WX PATTERN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ROTATING EWD ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW IS ALLOWING FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MID
TN...AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE EWD INTO NW AL. CONVECTION/SHOWERS...WITH
SOME EMBEDDED TSTMS...SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/ERN
HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINING AFTERNOON PERIOD. A FEW
SHOWERS COULD PERHAPS LINGER ACROSS EXTREME NE AL/SRN MID TN INTO
THE EARLY EVENING PERIOD...AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE AREA
TO THE E. LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
LOW DROPPING SEWD INTO THE SRN/MID ATLANTIC BASIN SUN MORNING...WITH
DRIER AIR AROUND H5 ADVECTING SWD INTO THE REGION WITH THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM. DRIER AIR LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA HEADING
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS STATES
TRANSLATES NEWD UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CNTRL GULF
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR OVERALL TEMPS TO QUICKLY REBOUND
AROUND 10 DEG OR HIGHER ABOVE NORMAL TRENDS GOING PAST MON.

QUIET AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WX CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO MID
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SE REGION. THE RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT IS
THEN XPCTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY WED AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NW. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS ARE NOT
OVERLY CLEAR ON THE EXTENT OF THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION SWD...WITH THE
SFC BOUNDARY PERHAPS WASHING OUT/STALLING INVOF OF THE AREA WED INTO
THU. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY LIKEWISE LOOKS
TO BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN...DESPITE A PRETTY OPEN GULF FLOW PATTERN.
IN ANY CASE...WILL MAINTAIN THE ONGOING FORECAST ADVERTISING LOW END
POPS WITH THE FRONT SETTLING INTO THE REGION AFTER MID WEEK COUPLED
WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS.

A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE WX PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO UNFOLD HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN TURNS MORE TOWARD THE SW AS
WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE SRN PLAINS. AS THE TROUGH PATTERN
BEGINS TO TRANSLATE NEWD...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE BY SAT...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEEP SLY GULF FETCH PATTERN
REMAINING WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1227 PM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012/
FOR 18Z TAFS...UPPER LOW OVER WRN KY WILL SPIN SEVERAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THIS AFTN AND INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE IT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. ATTM THE CHC OF
WIDESPREAD PCPN LOOKS LOW. THUS WILL GO WITH VCSH FOR BOTH TAFS
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE
FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    47  76  52  79  52 /  10  10   0   0   0
SHOALS        48  77  51  80  51 /  10  10   0   0   0
VINEMONT      47  73  52  77  52 /  10  10   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  46  74  48  77  48 /  20  10   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   47  73  49  76  49 /  10  10   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    45  74  47  78  47 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1101 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-250600-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1101 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WHILE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR
SEVERE...AND THE MAIN THREAT IS LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA BY MID WEEK...BRINGING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ALTHOUGH FORMAL ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...TIMELY REPORTS
OF HAIL WILL BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.