A warm front surged north during the morning hours of March 2, 2012 ushering in a moist and unstable airmass across the Mid-South. During the afternoon hours a powerful dry line surged east and interacted with the unstable airmass to produce numerous supercells east of the Mississippi River.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
A warm front surged north during the morning hours of March 2, 2012 ushering in a moist and unstable airmass across the Mid-South. During the afternoon hours a powerful dry line surged east and interacted with the unstable airmass to produce numerous supercells east of the Mississippi River. These supercells eventually merged to form a line of thunderstorms that pushed east to the Tennessee River during the evening hours. Numerous storms became severe across West Tennessee with large hail and damaging winds.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 2, 2:21 PM CST, 19 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
221 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012
.DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THIS SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS NOW UNDERWAY WITH NUMEROUS
SUPERCELLS SPROUTING UP EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE CELLS
ARE FIRING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL...PERHAPS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...DAMAGING WINDS
TO 70 MPH...AND SOME TORNADOES. THE TORNADO THREAT IS TEMPERED
SOMEWHAT BY HIGH LCL/S AND VEERING SURFACE WINDS. NONETHELESS...
THE RISK IS STILL THERE GIVEN THE INTENSE WIND FIELDS. THESE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DRY LINE SURGES EAST ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH BY
EVENING. WILL CANCEL THE TORNADO WATCH AS THE DRY LINE PROGRESSES
EASTWARD.
SPEAKING OF THE DRY LINE...VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PLUMMETING
HUMIDITY HAVE LED TO A HIGH FIRE DANGER ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THESE AREAS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING
LESS FAVORABLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS COLDER AIR PUSHES IN
BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
WINDS HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. DON/T FEEL A NEED TO
UPGRADE NOW SINCE WINDS APPEARED TO HAVE LEVELED OFF BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 6 PM.
SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE DRY LINE.
.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE DOWN ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD BRING
A FEW SHOWERS TO AREAS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO
LOW 40S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND PARK THERE FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. A RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP WITH PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY WINDS...BRINGING WARMER AIR BACK. DESPITE THIS
FLOW...925 MB TEMPS AREN/T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE SO AM A BIT
RESERVED FROM BUMPING TEMPS UP TOO HIGH. SHOULD BE A VERY NICE
PERIOD THOUGH WITH HIGHS NEAR 70.
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TIMING ISSUES WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING MID
TO LATE WEEK. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND IS GENERALLY PREFERRED GIVEN THE
PATTERN. RAISED POPS LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT.
BORGHOFF
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
FEW CHANGES FROM THE 15Z TAF UPDATE. PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS
PREFRONTAL WINDS AND LOCATION OF TSRA INITIATION AND SUBSEQUENT
EVOLUTION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
17Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL AR.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WINDS HAVE GUSTED TO 35KTS IN MANY LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH... WITH A 41KT GUST NOTED AT 4M9... CORNING
AR. NAM MODEL SUGGESTS FL020 WIND SPEED MAXIMUM WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH 21Z... AND HAVE REFLECTED A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN GUSTS FOR THE TAFS...THOUGH STILL NEAR 30KTS.
STILL APPEARS TSRA INITIATION WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE MS RIVER...
QUICKLY TAKING THE FORM OF BROKEN TO SOLID LINE EAST OF MEM. TUP
AND MKL APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY THIS LINE.
PWB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 43 56 39 60 / 10 0 0 0
MKL 35 55 32 55 / 10 0 0 10
JBR 36 54 35 58 / 10 0 0 10
TUP 42 60 35 59 / 80 0 0 0
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-
PEMISCOT.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
TUNICA.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DYER-LAKE-
LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 137 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012 ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115- MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-031130- ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA- CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER- FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY- ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON- MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT- PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY- ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA- UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA- 137 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS... THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM UNION CITY TENNESSEE TO OXFORD MISSISSIPPI WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THREATS FROM THESE STORMS INCLUDE VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. THE GREATEST RISK OF OF TORNADOES WILL BE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND ALABAMA STATE LINE. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FOR STRONG WEST GRADIENT WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...GUSTING TO 50 MPH. A DRY LINE WILL PUSH TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RAPIDLY DROPPING HUMIDITIES BEHIND THE DRY LINE WILL BRING HIGH FIRE DANGER ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIVER WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BORGHOFF
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...RETRANSMITTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 934 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012 ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115- MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-021600- ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA- CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER- FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY- ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON- MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT- PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY- ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA- UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABERDEEN...AMORY...BARTLETT... BATESVILLE...BLYTHEVILLE...BOLIVAR...BOONEVILLE... CARUTHERSVILLE...CLARKSDALE...COLLIERVILLE...CORINTH... COVINGTON...DRESDEN...DYERSBURG...FORREST CITY...GERMANTOWN... HARRISBURG...HELENA...HUMBOLDT...HUNTINGDON...IUKA...JACKSON... JONESBORO...KENNETT...LEXINGTON...MARTIN...MEMPHIS...MILAN... MILLINGTON...NEW ALBANY...OLIVE BRANCH...OXFORD...PARAGOULD... PARIS...SAVANNAH...SOMERVILLE...SOUTHAVEN...TUNICA...TUPELO... UNION CITY...WALNUT RIDGE...WEST MEMPHIS...WYNNE 934 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012 ...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT... ...A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM UNION CITY TENNESSEE TO OXFORD MISSISSIPPI WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH... A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI TODAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT TRAVERSING THE MIDSOUTH...MOVING INTO CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ABUNDANT SURFACE MOISTURE IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. AS TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY ALL INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM UNION CITY TENNESSEE TO IUKA MISSISSIPPI BETWEEN 1 PM AND 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE TOWARD SUNSET BEFORE MOVING INTO CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA. PLEASE BE SURE THAT YOUR SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY PLANS ARE IN PLACE FOR BOTH YOUR RESIDENCE AND BUSINESS. RESIDENTS SHOULD BE SURE THAT THEY HAVE ACCESS TO A RELIABLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION TODAY AND TONIGHT...SUCH AS NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET.
The Memphis radar (KNQA), 54 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:39 UTC.
7 hail, 5 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Straight line winds knocked down several trees south of Moscow.
Straight line winds knocked down trees across Southern Carroll County. Roads that were hard hit included Goodrum, Black Gully and Purdy.
Quarter to golf ball size hail was reported in Grand Junction.
Straight line winds produced tree and power line damage along with some minor structural damage in Bolivar. A roof was torn off a building on West Market Street in town. Pea size hail also covered the ground.
Quarter size hail fell between Bemis and Beech Bluff. The hail was deep enough to cause fog in the valleys.
Very large hail combined with 60 mph winds produced severe tree damage and broken windows in Stantonville.
Very large hail combined with 60 mph winds produced severe tree damage and broken windows in Stantonville.
Straight line winds knocked down a few small trees and tree limbs in the Cravens area of Savannah. There was also some minor shingle damage.
Quarter size hail covering the ground in the community of Olivehill.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, March 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 369203, 369204, 369206, 369219, 369220, 369221, 369229, 369234, 369235, 369607, 369609, 369611.