Lightning Strikes in South Carolina, August 6, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
445 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT OVER TENNESSEE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
OVER NIGHT AS MOIST TROPICAL AIR MOVES NORTH FROM FLORIDA.  THIS
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE
LATER IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE WEST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...UPDATED POPS AND SKY ATTEMPTING TO MATCH THE RADAR
TRENDS. STILL THINK CONVECTION WILL ENCOMPASS MOST AREAS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH DRY REGIONS BEGINNING TO FILL IN. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE BEING SUPPRESSED BY THE MOIST MID LEVELS AND
RELATIVELY LOW SFC/BASED INSTABILITY. EXPECT SUB/SEVERE
STORMS...WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING AS THE MAIN
THREATS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

AS OF 230 PM...SHOWER AND TSTM COVERAGE HAS BLOSSOMED OVER THE
MOUNTAIN RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO GROW AND
EXPAND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS A SHORTWAVE OBSERVED IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER SE KY/NE TN MOVES ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND THE
NRN TIER OF WRN NC. IN ADDITION...UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250 MB JETLET WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...AND SRLY BL FLOW WILL PROVIDE SOME UPSLOPE FORCING AT
LOWER LEVELS. LIKELY TO CAT POPS WILL BE WARRANTED THIS AFTN INTO
TONIGHT. THE WARM AND WET PROFILES DO NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT MUCH OF
A SEVERE TSTM THREAT...BUT ISOLD HYDRO PROBLEMS COULD DEVELOP WITH
ANY TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

THE MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON LINGERING H5 TROUGHINESS OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUE...AS WELL AS PERSISTENT UPPER DIVERGENCE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME SPREAD ON THE HANDLING OF THE 850 MB
CIRCULATION INITIALIZED OVER THE FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. THE NAM
MOVES THIS CIRCULATION SLOWLY NWD INTO NORTH CENTRAL GA BY LATE
TUE...WHILE THE GFS/ECM KEEP IT SUPPRESSED FARTHER S. LITTLE
DIFFERENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER SHOULD RESULT...HOWEVER...AS A S TO
SE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM PERIOD. THE EAST SIDE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS SHOULD BE
THE BEST FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...JUST ABOUT ANY LOCATION
COULD SEE ISOLATED FLOODING WITH SLOWLY MOVING OR TRAINING CELLS.
THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE IN A +2 STANDARD DEVIATION ANOMALY ON GEFS
COMPUTED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THROUGH TUE. SINCE PRECIPITATION
RATES HAVE NOT BEEN VERY HIGH SO FAR...AND 3 HR FFG IS GENERALLY 2
TO 4 INCHES MOST AREAS...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FFA AT
PRESENT. ONCE WE SEE WHICH BASINS GET SATURATED BY RAINFALL THIS
AFTN...A SHORT FUSE AND SMALLER FFA COULD BE ISSUED FARTHER INTO THE
EVENT.

WENT WITH A SMALLER DIURNAL RANGE ON MIN TEMPS TONIGHT/MAXES TUE
GIVEN THE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SOLID COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA. FOG COULD
BE A PROBLEM IN THE MTN VALLEYS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING THE AXIS OF THE UPPER JET AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH
TOWARD THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY...TAKING THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH ALONG WITH IT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AND A RETURN TO CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS DURING THE PERIOD.
IN THE INTERIM...HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FAVORED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. THERE WILL BE A LINGERING HEAVY RAIN
THREAT INTO THE EVENING...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.

BY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHEAST...
COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BE LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN
IN RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ENSURE AT LEAST MODERATE DESTABILIZATION.
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD THEREFORE DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
BY MID-AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES NEARER THE
DEEP MOIST AXIS. ALL AREAS GET A CHANCE POP BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH
THE DRYING OF THE MID-LEVELS...SEVERE CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD
INCREASE...WITH A FEW PULSE STORMS POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA IN PERSISTENTLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS. COVERAGE MAY INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES...AS A MOIST WAA REGIME BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE TENN
VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG STORM
SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM MONDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF VERY
MOIST PROFILES...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ON FRIDAY.

BY EARLY SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN STALLING THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WITH MUCH DRIER
AIR SWEEPING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH. WE
HAVE OPTED TO LINGER SOME TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA (LOW CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES) UNTIL CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE FOR THE WEEKEND.
(ALTHOUGH A PERFECT PROG OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A
DRY AND ACTUALLY RATHER PLEASANT MID-AUGUST WEEKEND).

BY MONDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING QUICKLY EAST OF THE
AREA...AND ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING TO OUR WEST...THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST QUICK MODIFICATION OF THE CONTINENTAL
AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WILL OCCUR. INSTABILITY MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW A RETURN OF TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTION...
SO CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FORN DAY 7. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GENERALLY HOVER AROUND CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CCL HEIGHTS AROUND 875 MB THIS AFTN SHOULD YIELD A LOWER
VFR CUMULUS CIG AT 3 TO 4 KFT AWAY FROM ANY CONVECTION. ANTICIPATE
THAT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL STEADILY BUILD WITH HEATING...AS WELL AS
THE ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE NW AND IMPROVING UPPER
DIVERGENCE. A FAIRLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS MAY SET UP AT OR
NEAR THE AIRFIELD...BUT THE BEST TSRA CHANCES ARE STILL PROGGED TO
START AROUND 21Z. CIGS SHOULD LOWER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SOURCES ARE INDICATING IFR AT
PRESENT. WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS MVFR FORECAST BY 08Z...WITH
LITTLE TO NO RECOVERY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT LIGHT
SRLY FLOW FOR THE DURATION AWAY FROM ANY OUTFLOWS.

ELSEWHERE...SHOWER AND TSTM COVERAGE IS RAPIDLY EXPANDING ACROSS THE
MTNS THIS AFTN...SO FEEL CONFIDENT GOING WITH A TEMPO TSRA INCLUDING
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AT KAVL AFTER 19Z. MAY TAKE UNTIL 20 TO 21Z TO
GET TSRA GOING AT OR NEAR THE FOOTHILL TAFS...SO WILL FEATURE
SLIGHTLY LATER TEMPO TSRA THERE...BUT WITH IFR ONLY AT KHKY WHERE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE GOOD AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. CCL HEIGHTS
WILL YIELD LOWER VFR CUMULUS/CB CIGS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...LIKELY
BECOMING MVFR OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK
ESPECIALLY AT KAVL AND KHKY. DECENT SHOWER COVERAGE MAY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING IN MOIST SRLY UPSLOPE AND CONTINUED
UPPER DIVERGENCE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MVFR THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD FOR NOW. EXPECT LIGHT S TO SW FLOW AWAY FROM ANY
OUTFLOWS.

OUTLOOK...DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TUE NIGHT...WITH SOLID COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS. WEAK DRYING IS POSSIBLE WED/EARLY THU...BUT THEN
MOISTURE POOLS AGAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD THROUGH FRI.
EXPECT A WEEK OF VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...HG/SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
417 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-072030-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
417 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING COULD RESULT WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY AFFECT THE SAME LOCATION. IN ADDITION...
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS MAY
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS A WEAK TROPICAL LOW OVER THE GULF STATES LIFTS ABUNDANT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUESDAY. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE ENOUGH
RAINFALL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING TO DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF DAMAGING
WINDS OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
555 PM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W MORGANTON           35.74N 81.72W
08/06/2012                   BURKE              NC   PUBLIC

            ONE TREE BLOWN OVER ON DAVIS DRIVE. TIME IS APPROXIMATE
            BASED ON ESTIMATED TIME FROM OBSERVER AND RADAR.

&&

OUTLAW