Hail in Pennsylvania, May 3, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1133 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO
FRIDAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY AND STALL NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER UNTIL A LOW SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS OHIO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...BOOSTED TEMPS A BIT IN PLACES BASED ON LATEST HRRR OUTPUT.

FOR 630 AM UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO LOWER POPS FOR MORNING
SINCE NOTHING OF NOTE CURRENTLY OCCURRING. ALSO WILL ADD SOME PATCHY
FOG FOR NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE TODAY. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE CWA FROM THE SW WHILE WIND SHEAR
REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK. THE SHORT TERM HI RES MODELS SEEM TO WANT
TO PRODUCE THE MOST CONVECTION INTO THE MORNING THEN THE NAM AND GFS
TAPER BACK THE THREAT INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
LIFTS NE OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCE IN THE NORTH. DUE TO THE LIMITED RISK FOR SEVERE WILL
NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

A VERY WARM DAY IS IN STORE WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA FRI.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE PRESENT WITH PW'S AROUND 1.5 INCHES. EXPECT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA TO SPREAD SE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE FRONT.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE SO THIS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT HIGH
TEMPS/INSTABILITY AND THUS THE SEVERE THREAT.

FRI NIGHT...THE BETTER THREAT FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE SHIFTING INTO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH A LINGERING CHANCE INTO SAT FOR
MAINLY THE SOUTH. EVEN THOUGH OVERALL AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE WARM ON
SAT...NE FLOW OFF OF A CHILLY LAKE ERIE WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE.

THE HIGH TO THE NORTH SHOULD PUSH ENOUGH OF A RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE
AREA TO HOLD OFF THE PRECIP THREAT FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN BUT
OVERRUNNING IN THE SW WILL BEGIN ON SUN AND COULD ALLOW SOME
CONVECTION TO RETURN.

THE APPROACH OF A LOW WEST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MON WILL PROBABLY
LEAD TO MORE CONVECTION PUSHING INTO AT LEAST THE WEST HALF OF THE
AREA SUN NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH INCREASED
CHANCES OF RAIN BY AFTERNOON. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AND MAY ACTUALLY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE
DIFFERING ON HOW FAST THIS LOW WILL CLEAR THE AREA. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL NOT BE ALL THAT FAR FROM THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT BUT IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE
DRY. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING ON HOW TO DIG THE NEXT TROUGH INTO THE
CENTRAL LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE DIFFERING SCENARIOS WOULD BE SHOWERS
RETURNING EITHER EARLY WEDNESDAY OR MAYBE HOLDING OFF UNTIL
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY BUT WE WILL COOL BACK
TO SEASONAL LEVELS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO VARY IN
THICKNESS THROUGH THE MORNING. BELIEVE THERE WILL AT LEAST BE A
FEW PATCHES OF MVFR FOG...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINED OVERNIGHT.
CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO DEVELOPING WITH THE
MORNING MIX. IF THESE DO OCCUR THEY WILL BE VERY BRIEF. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BY AFTERNOON. GUSTS IN THE 25 KNOT RANGE
WILL BE COMMON WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS NW OHIO AROUND 30
KNOTS.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE UNSTABLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE
MAY NOT BE ANY BOUNDARIES TO GET THE CONVECTION STARTED. CANT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED STORM ANYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER IT
APPEARS THAT THE KERI AREA MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE BUT STILL
NOTHING HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION THURSDAY
EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. NON-VFR POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE
TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE LAKE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
BASIN BUT SHOULD NOT EXCEED 20 KNOTS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED BY SATURDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO SUNDAY WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS EXPECTED. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE WAVES TO BUILD BUT WITH WINDS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THAN 15 KNOTS WE SHOULD SEE 2 TO 4 FOOT
WAVES. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE CLOSELY IF
WIND SPEEDS ARE A BIT STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL LAKES ON MONDAY WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SWING
AROUND TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/TK
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
534 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-040945-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-LUCAS-WOOD-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
534 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA NEAR LAKE ERIE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.