Wildfire in Oregon, August 20 to 31, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
221 PM PDT MON AUG 20 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW LOOK
TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD.  SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUIET AFTERNOON AS
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAINS.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 5 PM...AND WILL
BE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON.
FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THIS
EVENING IN LIEU OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH.  THERE IS A WAVE OF ENERGY
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GRANT COUNTY...THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND AREAS EASTWARD.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGH
BASED AND MAY PROVIDE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION.  THEREFORE A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CERTAIN AREAS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
THROUGH 7 PM TOMORROW.  PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR REFER TO PRODUCT PDXRFWPDT.

AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...EXPECT
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL DOWN FROM THE LOWER 90S TO THE
LOWER 80S BY LATE IN THE WEEK.  THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SPLIT FLOW WILL KEEP THE
AREA MILD AND DRY.  WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
EVENING...EXPECT BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINLY IN THE
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY. WEBER

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN IS IN STORE THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH MUCH COOLER
AIR BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARD ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH TO IMPACT THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND
WHICH IF IT PANS OUT WOULD MEAN MORE COOLER WEATHER AND PERHAPS SOME
RAIN. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY BUT HAVE KNOCKED
TEMPERATURES DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST TO TREND
TOWARD THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS. COULD BE SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY.
78

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS MOSTLY BELOW 15 KT. CONTINUE TO
EXPECT HIGH BASED TSTMS TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 06Z AND IMPACT VCNTY
KPSC...KALW...AND KPDT...POSSIBLY KDLS. WILL CARRY A VCSH GROUP
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT BUT PICK UP FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY...KDLS AND KPDT AND TO SOME
EXTENT AT KRDM AND KBDN. AT THESE SITES WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 KT
WITH 25 TO 30 KT AT KDLS. ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL BE BELOW 15KT. 78

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST OREGON ZONES INTO NORTHEAST OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS IN THESE AREAS. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS COMES
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INLAND. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BASIN
EASTWARD. WITH VERY DRY LOWER LEVELS AND HIGH BASES TO THE
THUNDERSTORMS...CAN EXPECT LITTLE TO NO RAIN FROM THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE PUT IN LAL OF 6
FOR PORTIONS OF THE BASIN AND INTO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN...AS THE TROUGH BRINGS MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE MORE RAINFALL WITH WETTING RAINS
UNDER THE CELLS BY THE MID MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS (ESPECIALLY OR
AND WA ZONES 633 AND EASTWARD) WITH LALS BEING 3 DECREASING TO 2 AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES AND THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. WILL BE INCLUDING OR
ZONE 632 TO THE CURRENT WARNING WITH THE FOCUS ON THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE ZONE. THE WARNING RUNS FROM 10 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 7
PM TUESDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND WILL INCLUDE WA ZONES
675...631...633...OR ZONES 631...632...633...634 AND 635. DMH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  62  88  54  83 /  30  20  10   0
ALW  65  89  60  85 /  30  30  20   0
PSC  64  92  57  87 /  30  20   0   0
YKM  60  89  55  85 /  10  10   0   0
HRI  62  90  56  85 /  30  20   0   0
ELN  58  87  56  81 /  10  10   0   0
RDM  52  84  45  83 /  20  10   0   0
LGD  59  85  52  83 /  20  30  20   0
GCD  57  85  52  84 /  20  20  10   0
DLS  62  84  58  81 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PDT TUESDAY
     ORZ041-042-044-508.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PDT TUESDAY
     ORZ049-050-502-503-507.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PDT TUESDAY
     WAZ024-026>029-521.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PDT TUESDAY
     WAZ030.

&&

THREAT INDEX
TUESDAY : YELLOW
WEDNESDAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

89/78/78

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
249 PM PDT MON AUG 20 2012

UPDATED FOR EXPANDED RED FLAG COVERAGE

ORZ041-042-044-049-050-502-503-505>509-WAZ024-026>030-520-521-
211415-
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF OREGON-NORTH CENTRAL OREGON-
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON-GRANDE RONDE VALLEY-WALLOWA COUNTY-
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-JOHN DAY BASIN-OCHOCO-
JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS-
FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES-
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF WASHINGTON-KITTITAS VALLEY-
YAKIMA VALLEY-LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON-
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON-
NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES-SIMCOE HIGHLANDS-
249 PM PDT MON AUG 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

RED FLAG WARNING
     SIMCOE HIGHLANDS, EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF WASHINGTON,
     KITTITAS VALLEY, YAKIMA VALLEY, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF
     WASHINGTON, FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON,
     NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON, EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE OF OREGON, NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF
     OREGON, GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, WALLOWA COUNTY, FOOTHILLS OF THE
     NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF
     OREGON, SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, FOOTHILLS OF THE
     SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, JOHN DAY BASIN, OCHOCO-JOHN
     DAY HIGHLANDS

     CONTACT YOUR LOCAL FOREST OR LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCY FOR
     CURRENT FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS IN YOUR AREA.

SMOKE
     SIMCOE HIGHLANDS, EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF WASHINGTON,
     EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF OREGON, NORTH CENTRAL OREGON,
     EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES

THUNDERSTORMS
     SIMCOE HIGHLANDS, EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF WASHINGTON,
     KITTITAS VALLEY, YAKIMA VALLEY, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF
     WASHINGTON, FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON,
     NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON, EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE OF OREGON, NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, EAST SLOPES OF THE
     OREGON CASCADES, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON, GRANDE RONDE
     VALLEY, WALLOWA COUNTY, FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE
     MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON,
     SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN
     BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, JOHN DAY BASIN, OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL BEGIN TO SEND DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. COMBINING THIS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD IT NORTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ABUNDANT LIGHTING CREATING
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
OREGON AND SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THOSE AREAS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN
BE FOUND UNDER THE HEADER...PDXRFWPDT.

SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE ALONG THE CASCADE CREST WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST
INTO NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS MAY CAUSE REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES AND LOWER
AIR QUALITY LOCALLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

RED FLAG WARNING TUESDAY
     SIMCOE HIGHLANDS, EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF WASHINGTON,
     KITTITAS VALLEY, YAKIMA VALLEY, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF
     WASHINGTON, FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON,
     NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON, EASTERN COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE OF OREGON, NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, LOWER COLUMBIA
     BASIN OF OREGON, GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, WALLOWA COUNTY,
     FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, NORTHERN
     BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON,
     FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, JOHN DAY
     BASIN, OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS

SMOKE TUESDAY
     SIMCOE HIGHLANDS, EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF WASHINGTON,
     EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF OREGON, NORTH CENTRAL OREGON,
     EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES

THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
     SIMCOE HIGHLANDS, EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF WASHINGTON,
     KITTITAS VALLEY, YAKIMA VALLEY, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF
     WASHINGTON, FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON,
     NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON, EASTERN COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE OF OREGON, NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, LOWER COLUMBIA
     BASIN OF OREGON, GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, WALLOWA COUNTY,
     FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, NORTHERN
     BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON,
     FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, JOHN DAY
     BASIN, OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS

ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SEND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AREA IN THE MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. IN THE
AFTERNOON, INSTABILITY FROM THE FRONT PASSAGE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE  REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ABUNDANT LIGHTING CREATING
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND SOUTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND UNDER THE
HEADER...PDXRFWPDT.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE THE AREA. THIS
WILL BE REPLACED BY A WEAK TROUGH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN WILL GIVE US DRY WEATHER WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GRAPHICAL FORECASTS OF WEATHER HAZARDS OUT TO SEVEN DAYS
ARE DISPLAYED ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB AT:

WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/PDT/CURRENTHAZARDS/HWO.HTML

ALL LETTERS IN THE ABOVE URL ARE LOWER CASE.