Hail in Oklahoma, April 9, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
635 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM
THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN OK AND SOUTHERN KS AT 2330Z MAY
REACH EASTERN OK TAF SITES KBVO/KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/ IN 05Z-10Z
TIME RANGE BEFORE DISSIPATING. MORE THUNDER COULD DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALL TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE ONLY ALLOWS
PROB30 MENTION AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF THUNDER
POTENTIAL...VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012/

DISCUSSION...
STORMS FIRING OUT IN THE TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. W-NW UPPER
FLOW PATTERN COMBINING WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION AND A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORTS AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION VERY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS ERN OK. CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS
JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE
AREA FOR THE EARLY PERIODS...THEN LATER IN THE WEEK UPPER SUPPORT
WILL INCREASE AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO
MORE SWRLY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTIONS BEGIN TO
ORGANIZE IN THE FORM OF A DRY LINE BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. GIVEN
THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT...HAVE
OPTED TO GO WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THURSDAY ON. EXPECT PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER FOR THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME COOLER
AIR WILL TRY TO BACK DOOR IN TO THE NE OK/NW AR WED AND THURSDAY
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS DOWN THE FROM THE HIGH PLAINS AND
MOVES SOUTHEAST. ANY COOL DOWN FROM THIS WILL BE BRIEF AS THIS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WORKS INTO THE SE CONUS. TEMPERATURE
WISE...STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE OT GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATER
PERIODS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEEKEND STORM
SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  74  50  66 /  40  40  40  20
FSM   57  75  52  67 /  20  40  30  30
MLC   59  74  54  66 /  20  30  30  30
BVO   54  73  47  65 /  40  40  40  20
FYV   51  71  48  65 /  20  40  40  20
BYV   50  71  45  65 /  40  40  40  20
MKO   59  75  51  67 /  30  40  40  30
MIO   51  73  45  65 /  40  40  40  20
F10   58  74  53  67 /  30  40  40  30
HHW   60  75  57  69 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
542 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
542 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75.
	ONSET...AFTER 7 PM...WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
        AFTER 3 AM.

DISCUSSION...
A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS MAY MOVE INTO PARTS OF FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AFTER 7 PM. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A FEW CLUSTERS OF STORMS THIS EVENING AND
BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST. WHILE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...A FEW STORMS COULD APPROACH PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLE NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...BUT STILL MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
WEEK.  THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE BY LATE WEEK...WITH
STRONGER STORM SYSTEMS POISED TO PASS ACROSS THE PLAINS. ALL DATA
SUGGEST THAT AMPLE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE STORMS FROM LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.