Hail in Ohio, August 19, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
345 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN ENHANCED CU FIELD
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL OHIO DOWN INTO SOUTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE TRIED TO POP UP ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO...BUT SO FAR ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE HAS GENERALLY BEEN OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST. ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BEING AIDED BY SOME WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH...BUT IT IS PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. AS A RESULT...WOULD
EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TO BE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND PRIMARILY ACROSS
ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF OUR FA IN REGION OF BEST CU
DEVELOPMENT. AS WE PROGRESS INTO THIS EVENING...ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OFF WITH SKIES AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEARING.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DIP DOWN INTO THE MID 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL HELP SHARPEN UP
THE TROUGH ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WHILE FORCING IS
FAIRLY WEAK...SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP AS THE
850 MB TROUGH ALSO SHARPENS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
EVIDENT ON THE 12Z GFS WHICH IS SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN THE 12Z
NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. SOME WEAK INSTABILITIES WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH DAYS. AS A RESULT...WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH A FOCUS ON THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS DROP OFF A TAD THROUGH
THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE BUMPING BACK UP A BIT FOR TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE ON MONDAY WITH
PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BACK
AND BECOME WEAK WITH TIME. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
TO ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY ON WHETHER A SHORT
WAVE COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT IN
TIME RESULTS IN LOW PROBABILITY OF RAIN.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE TAF SITES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE AROUND THE KCMH AND KLCK AREA. LIMITED PRECIPITATION MENTION TO
VCSH AND VCTS AROUND THE KCMH AND KLCK AREA. CU WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING HOWEVER SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. ADDITIONAL CU DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
458 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-200900-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
458 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
453 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

OHZ046-055-192130-
DELAWARE OH-FRANKLIN OH-
453 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTHERN
DELAWARE COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

AT 449 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DUBLIN...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PENNY SIZE HAIL.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...WORTHINGTON...POWELL...
MINERVA PARK AND WESTERVILLE.

ALSO...COLUMBUS ZOO...RIVERLEA...HUBER RIDGE AND LEWIS CENTER ARE
NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4011 8280 3999 8312 4008 8321 4010 8321
      4011 8320 4011 8318 4013 8317 4022 8304

ASL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
502 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             DUBLIN                  40.12N 83.13W
08/19/2012  E0.50 INCH       FRANKLIN           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL CURRENTLY FALLING.

&&

KURZ