Lightning Strike in North Carolina, May 29, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
233 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST AS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BERYL MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTS THROUGH
THURSDAY. BERYL WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING THE FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM BERYL CONTINUES TO MOVE
NE TOWARD COASTAL SC THIS AFTN. SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY TRAVERSED THE PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS...AND THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SIX HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN LESS THAN ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS...SO NO
SIGNIFICANT TRAINING OF SHOWERS HAS SET UP. FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY AND THE SRN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE
WESTERLIES THAT WILL FINALLY PICK UP THE BERYL REMNANTS AND LIFT IT
QUICKLY NE OVERNIGHT. THE GEFS PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALY PLOT
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE 2+ SD AREA SKIRTING BY JUST EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS PLANNED...BUT CHARLOTTE AND
LOCATIONS IN THE ERN PIEDMONT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

MEANWHILE...THE SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS SHOWN
VERY LITTLE THERMAL OR MOISTURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. AT
LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY SHOULD ARRIVE WITH THE DECAYING FRONT IN
THE WRN MTNS THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TO KEEP FORCING GOING FOR
SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLD TSTMS THROUGHOUT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE UNTIL DAYBREAK EAST OF INTERSTATE 77. EXPECT ANOTHER VERY
MILD NIGHT.

FAIRLY FLAT WESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP ON WEDNESDAY. MID LEVEL DRYING
WILL STEADILY WORK IN FROM THE WEST...WITH PROFILES DRYING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT LOWER LEVELS...A NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AS THE LOW CIRCULATION MOVES EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
THE MODELS ARE VERY STINGY ON ANY LINGERING QPF EARLY WED. THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE WED MORNING EAST OF INTERSTATE 77. 850 TO 500
MB LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPER ON WED...BUT TRIGGERS WILL BE HARD TO
FIND AND SFC DEWPOINS WILL MIX OUT SOME. TEMPS WILL WARM UP WITH
MORE SUNSHINE TO 85 TO 90 EAST OF THE MTNS AND 80 TO 85 MTN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WED NIGHT WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AS BERYL EXITS THE
REGION TO THE NE. ON THU...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVE TO NEAR LAKE ERIE BY LATE FRIDAY. THE
LOW'S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH WESTERN NC BY LATE
FRI. STAYED CLOSE TO THE SREF REPRESENTATION OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES
WHICH IRONS OUT SOME OF THE DETAILS CONCERNING TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND MODEL QPF RESPONSE TO MOISTURE RETURN ON THU AS WINDS TURN TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THU SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THANKS TO OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS. FALLING HEIGHTS THU NIGHT MAY ALLOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT ALL AREAS...SO HAVE CHANCE POPS
EVERYWHERE. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO HIGH LIKELY ON FRI ALL AREAS AS THE
MODERATELY FORCED COLD FRONT APPROACHES ALONG WITH FALLING HEIGHTS.
SOME SEVERE STORMS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE ON FRI AS CAPES ARE
FORECAST TO EXCEED 1000J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO
40KTS OR SO. USED MOS BLEND FOR TEMP/MOISTURE FIELDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...12Z MODEL CYCLE HAS COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.  IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRI
EVENING...SO THE LIKELY TYPE POPS FROM HPC LOOK REASONABLE. BASED ON
THE FASTER 12Z GUIDANCE FOR THE FROPA...HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE HPC
POPS FOR SAT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON SAT AND MAINTAIN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY.
THEREFORE...WILL FORECAST DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. ON TUE...IT
LOOKS LIKE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND SERVE AS A
TRIGGER FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER HEIGHTS RISE THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME HOT TEMPS MON INTO TUE. HOWEVER...STAYED ABOUT A
CATEGORY BELOW HPC NUMBERS PER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. EVEN SO...HIGHS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S OUTSIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS BOTH MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...SHOWERS AND WEAK TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALL AROUND THE
AIRFIELD TODAY WITHOUT MUCH OCCURRING RIGHT AT THE TERMINAL.
PREVAILING SHRA STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FORECAST FOR THE BULK OF
THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS...WITH THUNDER CHANCES PEAKING 20 TO 22Z.
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE BRINGS MVFR CIGS TO THE AIRFIELD OVERNIGHT...BUT SIGNALS
ARE MIXED. WILL KEEP CIGS LOW VFR...WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
SHOWER CHANCES OVERNIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING AS THE BERYL REMNANTS
MOVE AWAY TO THE E. SE WINDS EARLY WILL TURN NE TOWARD 05Z TONIGHT.
NRLY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST WITH MIXING MID MORNING ON WED.

ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...WITH TEMPO TSTMS WILL BE THE BEST
FORECAST FOR THE FOOTHILL TAF SITES...WITH TSTMS A LITTLE LESS
COMMON AROUND KAVL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CIGS...BUT WITH MVFR LIKELY IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. SHOWER COVERAGE
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR
MOVES IN ALONG WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT. MORNING CIGS WILL BE
HARD TO PIN DOWN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STAYS RELATIVELY MOIST...BUT
WITH IMPROVING NRLY FLOW AND MIXING. WILL KEEP ALL CIGS VFR THROUGH
THE LATTER PERIOD. EXPECT S TO SE WINDS TO BECOME NRLY TONIGHT
THROUGH WED MORNING.

OUTLOOK...AFTER BRIEF DRYING WED AFTN THROUGH WED NIGHT...TSTM
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THU THROUGH FRI AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
249 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-301900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
249 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. LOCALIZED
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MAY BE
SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

LG