Lightning Strike in North Carolina, March 20, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1020 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN SUNDAY AND REMAINING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF MID EVENING...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS WANING
ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT. LEFTOVER LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CHARLOTTE METRO
AREA THROUGH 03Z. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW MORE SHOWERS THAT MIGHT
DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE PRECIP CHANCES MAY NOT
COMPLETELY GO AWAY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AS A LIGHT SE FLOW CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT...AND OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT OF NC DEPENDING ON THE TRACK
AND FORCING OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE SHOWN BY THE MODELS DROPPING DOWN
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF NC. TEMP TRENDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT
OBS.

REMAINDER OF PREV DISCUSSION...
COVERAGE ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR MAY EXPAND THROUGH WED AS
BETTER DEEP LAYER DPVA MOVES SWD ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND SC. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES INCREASE A LITTLE ON WED...SO SFC BASED CAPE VALUES
WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN TUE. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SLOW MOVERS AND POSE AN ISOLATED HYDRO THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE OVER MOST OF THE EAST...WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND
DRIFTS SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE THE CLOSED LOW PROGRESSES
NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE UPPER RIDGE NARROWS OVER
THE APPALACHIANS.

A SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
RESULTING IN A WEAK SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL UPPER
LOW WILL LINGER ON THE COAST...AND MAY EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS THE
INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR ON THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY THE COASTAL MOISTURE
DEPARTS WITH ITS UPPER SYSTEM...WHILE GULF INFLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS IMPROVES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT REACHES THE
MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WILL BE CARRIED ON THURSDAY...GREATEST
DURING DAYTIME HEATING AND NEAR THE SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT...WHERE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND UPSLOPE FLOW COINCIDE.
AS WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INSTABILITY INCREASE ON FRIDAY...
GREATER POPS WILL BE CARRIED...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST OVER TERRAIN.
MODEL HELICITY VALUES APPEAR RATHER TAME ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM TUESDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS IS COMING MORE IN LINE SINCE
YESTERDAYS MORNING SOLNS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOW WELL DEPICTED
TO BE DROPPING SW INTO THE OH VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
AND TO CONTINUE SWEEP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SUN. THE LATEST
CMC IS STILL A S/LY OUTLIER...BUT IT/S GOOD TO SEE THE TIGHTER
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT
ABOVE AVERAGE.

POPS WERE THUS ADJUSTED UP A BIT INTO THE LOW LIKELY CAT FOR SAT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE NRN MOST ZONES. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE CARRIED BY HIGH END CHANCE POPS EARLY SAT. DONT
ANTICIPATE A GREAT PRECIP THREAT AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED SOLELY WITH THE INCOMING LOW. PROBABLY ABOUT 1/4 TO 3/4
OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN MOST PLACES THAT ACTUALLY RECEIVE RAINFALL BTW
FRI NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. HOWEVER...ISOL HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ADDED CONVECTIVE THREAT SAT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL INCREASE AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH DECENT LLVL INSTABILITY...A
FEW SHOWERS COULD BECOME FAIRLY STRONG. SFC WINDS WILL NOT SHIFT
NW/LY UNTIL THE UPPER LOW IMPINGES UPON THE REGION...SO TEMPS ON SAT
POST FROPA WILL STILL LIKELY REACH ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES F ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME SMALL MEASURE OF AN AIRMASS MIX ON SUN WILL ONLY LOWER
MAXES A FEW DEGREES AS INSOLATION BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH A
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE ZONE.

MON AND TUE WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND RELATIVELY DRY ATL SFC HIPRES...SO NO POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED THESE DAYS AND TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TO START THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TRIAD...LOOKING FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WOULD TRIGGER MORE
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KCLT. FOR THE TIME BEING...WILL LEAVE A CB CLOUD
GROUP IN THE TAF INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TO INDICATE THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE AREA...AND PLAN TO
AMEND ACCORDINGLY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE APPARENT THIS EVENING
AND A LIGHT SE FLOW OVERNIGHT HOLDS POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP EITHER MVFR
VIS IN FOG OR CEILING. THINK FOG IS THE BEST BET AT THIS TIME AND
THAT WAS CARRIED AFTER 09Z. IF PRECIP FALLS...EXPECT A MUCH GREATER
CHANCE OF IFR AROUND SUNRISE. THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AND
THE BALANCE OF THE DAY WILL BE VFR WITH SCT HIGH BASED STRATOCU ONCE
AGAIN. THE CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE TOO LOW RIGHT NOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAF FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...KAVL WILL BE DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY A THUNDERSTORM FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...VFR WITH CB CLOUD GROUPS ARE
APPROPRIATE INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE EVENING. RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AT KAVL AND KHKY MAKE THEM PRIME CANDIDATES FOR THICKER
FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. HAVE ALREADY ADDED IFR VSBY TO KHKY AND WILL
CONSIDER THIS FOR KAVL WITH A FUTURE AMENDMENT. OTHER SITES HAVE
LESS OF A CHANCE FOR FOG AND WERE KEPT TO 6 MILES AROUND DAYBREAK.
THE REST OF THE FCST IS SIMILAR TO KCLT.

OUTLOOK...A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THE REST
OF THE WEEK UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST LATE FRI INTO
SAT. EXPECT MAINLY DIURNAL TSTM CHANCES...WITH FOG OR STRATUS
POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK EACH MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT
SEE RAINFALL THE NIGHT BEFORE.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
306 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-211915-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
306 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. COVERAGE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATEST OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WHERE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BUT A FEW COULD PRODUCE HAIL AS LARGE AS QUARTERS...OR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GERAPETRITIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
548 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012

NCZ056-202230-
CATAWBA-
548 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CATAWBA COUNTY THROUGH
630 PM EDT...

AT 546 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CONOVER...OR 5 MILES NORTH OF NEWTON...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CONOVER...
  NEWTON...
  LOOKOUT SHOALS LAKE...
  CLAREMONT...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3582 8114 3579 8113 3577 8109 3573 8106
      3572 8107 3571 8105 3571 8100 3555 8113
      3570 8136 3581 8126 3582 8121

JPT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
602 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012

NCZ049-050-202245-
MITCHELL-YANCEY-
602 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MITCHELL AND NORTHERN
YANCEY COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

AT 6 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF BAKERSVILLE...OR 11 MILES
NORTHWEST OF SPRUCE PINE...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BULADEAN...
  RAMSEYTOWN...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3612 8213 3611 8212 3611 8208 3608 8208
      3608 8207 3594 8214 3601 8244 3610 8233
      3615 8222

JPT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
726 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012

GAZ029-SCZ011-210015-
ABBEVILLE-ELBERT-
726 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN ELBERT AND SOUTHWESTERN
ABBEVILLE COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM EDT...

AT 723 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES EAST OF CALHOUN FALLS...OR 12 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ABBEVILLE...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CALHOUN FALLS...
  LAKE RUSSELL...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3403 8283 3424 8274 3421 8274 3425 8268
      3424 8267 3414 8241 3405 8244 3407 8248
      3407 8253 3401 8259 3398 8258

JOH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
745 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012

NCZ037-057-210030-
DAVIE-ROWAN-
745 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ROWAN AND SOUTHERN DAVIE
COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM EDT...

AT 744 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MOCKSVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  COOLEEMEE...
  SPENCER...
  SALISBURY...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3559 8067 3594 8069 3596 8043 3585 8041
      3583 8043 3582 8047 3579 8047 3577 8045
      3574 8045 3572 8039 3561 8038

JPT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
836 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012

NCZ071-072-210115-
CABARRUS-MECKLENBURG-
836 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MECKLENBURG AND WESTERN
CABARRUS COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM EDT...

AT 834 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ENOCHVILLE...OR 8 MILES
NORTHWEST OF CONCORD...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HUNTERSVILLE...
  CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY...

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3522 8064 3529 8092 3551 8082 3551 8069
      3550 8059

JPT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
909 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012

NCZ036-057-072-210200-
CABARRUS-IREDELL-ROWAN-
909 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CABARRUS...
SOUTHEASTERN IREDELL AND SOUTHWESTERN ROWAN COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 PM
EDT...

AT 908 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF ENOCHVILLE...OR 13 MILES
NORTHWEST OF CONCORD...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CHINA GROVE...
  ENOCHVILLE...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3541 8076 3550 8079 3551 8082 3563 8086
      3568 8061 3547 8052

JPT