Lightning Strike in North Carolina, June 13, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
207 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WED...WITH CAPES IN 1000-2000J/KG SCT CONVECTION HAS
FIRED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH DCAPES AROUND 1000J LOOKS LIKE A
55DBZ CORE HEIGHT TO 23K WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MICROBURST/LARGE
HAIL. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS <20KT...SO IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR MUCH
ORGAIZATION. THERE COULD BA FEW SEVERE STORMS TO DEAL WITH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE STORMS MOVE SE OFF THE ESCARPMENT. WILL HAVE
SCT TYPE POPS INCREASING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND NAM INDICATE THAT A WEAK
VORT WILL ADVECT SE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT EMBEDDED IN THE WEAK NW
FLOW. MUCAPES ARE INDICATED BY BUFKIT SOUNDINGS TO BE >1000J/KG. ALL
MODELS HAVE SOME QPF RESPONSE OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL INCREASE
POPS INTO THE SCT CATEGORY IN THE 00Z-06Z TIMEFRAME MAINLY OVER THE
UPSTATE/NE GA. THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES AWAY.
HOWEVER...VEERING WINDS TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION MAY TRIGGER
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS EARLY THU IN PARTS OF NE GA AND FAR W NC.

UPPER HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ON THU AS A SIGNFICANT RIDGE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO THE TO THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE
SPRAWLING HIGH TO THE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
WILL RIDGE FARTHER SOUTHWARD ADVECTING LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO THE
REGION. WEAKLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS. USED A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...THE WRN RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO BUILD AND
STRENGTHEN THU NIGHT AND THIS WILL BE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE OF
NOTE THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE. AT THE SFC...A FAIRLY STRONG AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE EAST ACROSS ERN CANADA AND RIDGE DOWN
THE EAST COAST PRETTY QUICKLY THU NIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH SAT.

THE PATTERN WILL ALLOW A CP AIR MASS TO BE REINFORCED AND MIXED INTO
THE REGION WITH SFC TD/S LOWERING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BOTH FRI
AND SAT. THIS WILL OFFSET ANY CONVECTIVE CONCERNS AND LLVL MOISTURE
WILL BE HIGHLY LIMITED ANYWAY. THE BEST MOISTURE ADV WILL BE
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MAINLY FRI BEFORE THE
LOWER THETA/E ADV ENCOMPASSES THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA ON SAT. OTHER
THAN ISOL AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO ACROSS THE NC MTNS...THE FCST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATS BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY AS
SFC-H8 WINDS PERSIST NE/LY. MINS WILL ALSO BE A CAT OR SO BELOW
NORMAL EACH MORNING WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUDINESS AND A THE P/GRAD
REMAINING TIGHT ALLOWING A MIX INTO RELATIVELY COOL AIR ABOVE THE
SFC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM WEDNESDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT IS HAD BTW THE OP MODELS
WITH THE EXT RANGE PATTERN THROUGH DAY 7. BASICALLY EXPECT THE MID
CONTINENT RIDGE AXIS TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND IMPINGE UPON THE
ANOMALOUS ATL TROF...WHICH ITSELF WILL ADJUST IT/S LOCATION PER THE
PARENT REX BLOCK SITUATED ACROSS THE NRN ATL. ANYWAY...THIS PATTERN
WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOWN THE ATL COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD TO SOME DEGREE. A LLVL THETA/E ANALYSIS SUGGESTS
THE AIR MASS WILL BE REINFORCED WITH RELATIVELY LOW TD/S. THE NE/LY
SFC WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER MON...BUT REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY AND
E/LY THROUGH TUE...BEFORE A MORE SE/LY FETCH IS REALIZED BY WED.
THIS WILL BE A DRY PATTERN FOR THE CWFA WITH DIURNAL RIDGE TOP
CONVERGENCE PROVIDING THE BEST FORCING FOR ANY -SHRA. EXPECT ONLY
FAIR WX CU NON/MTNS. POPS WERE MAINTAINED AT SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON...WITH A SOMEWHAT LARGER COVERAGE
PATTERN ADVERTISED FOR WED. ALL IN ALL...A NICE STRETCH OF DAYS ARE
IN STORE WITH TD/S REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
SUN/MON AND PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER TUE/WED AS THE UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENS ADVANCES TOWARD THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH THEY MAY
VEER AROUND ALMOST TO DUE EAST FOR A WHILE IN THE LATE AFTN TO EARLY
EVENING. A FEW TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY WEST OF THE AIRFIELD. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THAT COULD AFFECT THE AIRFIELD IN THE 02Z-06Z
TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF AT THE
MOMENT. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS.

ELSEWHERE...SCT THUDNERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL CARRY A VCTS AT KAVL. IT IS UNCERTAIN
WHETHER WEAK UPPER FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO MOVE STORMS OUT OF THE
MOUNTAINS...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF TSRA OTHER AIR FIELDS
BEFORE 00Z. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE 01Z-06Z TIMEFRAME AS AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH
ACTING ON MUCAPES >1000J. HAVE A VCTS FOR ALL SC AIRFIELDS FOR THAT.
OTHERWISE SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS...EXCEPT A PERIOD OF MVFR IS INDICATED
BY MODELS AT KAVL INTO THE NORTHERN UPSTATE EARLY ON THU.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS EACH
DAY...WHICH COULD HAVE SOME AFFECT ON OPERATIONS AT KAVL.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...LG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
331 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-141945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
331 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
202 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

GAZ010-131845-
RABUN-
202 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL RABUN COUNTY THROUGH 245
PM EDT...

AT 200 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DILLARD...OR 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF CLAYTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DILLARD...
  MOUNTAIN CITY...
  CLAYTON...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3495 8356 3499 8356 3500 8339 3485 8325
      3484 8327 3482 8327 3482 8330 3481 8330
      3477 8333 3473 8342 3475 8343 3472 8348
      3495 8359

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
238 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

SCZ002-003-006-131930-
GREATER GREENVILLE-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
238 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PICKENS AND
NORTHERN GREENVILLE COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

AT 236 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CAESARS HEAD...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BREVARD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MARIETTA...
  TRAVELERS REST...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3485 8246 3488 8249 3497 8253 3496 8258
      3507 8273 3510 8269 3512 8268 3512 8263
      3514 8261 3515 8256 3516 8255 3516 8249
      3504 8227

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
301 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

SCZ002-131930-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
301 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN PICKENS COUNTY
THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

AT 257 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ROCKY BOTTOM...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF
PICKENS...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3507 8284 3508 8280 3507 8276 3505 8274
      3505 8272 3490 8272 3489 8273 3495 8292
      3496 8292

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
324 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

NCZ063-132000-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-
324 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY THROUGH
400 PM EDT...

AT 317 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF SAPPHIRE...OR 19 MILES EAST OF
FRANKLIN...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  CASHIERS...

BRIEF LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3517 8305 3513 8299 3506 8305 3504 8303
      3502 8303 3502 8305 3509 8315

LANE