A four foot, 10 second period swell combined with the tidal effects of a near new moon to produce dangerous rips along the coast of southeast North Carolina.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILM wrote it up.
A four foot, 10 second period swell combined with the tidal effects of a near new moon to produce dangerous rips along the coast of southeast North Carolina.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 6:32 AM EST, 2 hours 28 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 732 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012 .SYNOPSIS... ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK AND COULD LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW MAKES ITS CLOSE APPROACH TO THE COAST FROM THE EAST. THIS UPPER LOW WILL COME IN PHASE WITH AN H/5 TROUGH TRANSITING FROM THE WEST...THEN WILL DIVE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COAST AS IT COMES UP AGAINST STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER EASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE WE WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH STRENGTHENING INLAND AS A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF CLIMATOLOGICALLY-CORRECT TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION STARTING LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. CONVECTION WILL BE HELPED ALONG BY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS UPPER LOW AND TROUGH COME INTO PHASE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH P/W VALUES INCREASING TO CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE TODAY...WITH DAYTIME HEATING SPARKING CONVECTION...INITIALLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT NEAR THE COAST STARTING LATE THIS MORNING...THEN SPREADING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH STRENGTHENS. STEERING FLOW WILL BE VERY WEAK TODAY...WITH UPPER WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE COLUMN. THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM TODAY WILL BE SLOW MOVING...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND BERMUDA HIGH WHILE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH EXTENDS DOWN THROUGH THE INLAND CAROLINAS. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA AS IT TRACKS EAST AND MOVES OFF THE COAST BY TUES AFTN LEAVING WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER FEATURE TO NOTE IS THE MID TO UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODELS SHOWING SOME OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW TO MOVE NORTHWARD BUT MAINLY REMAINING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SW FLOW WILL EXIST THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LATE TUES THROUGH WED AND THEREFORE EXPECT ANY STORMS TO MOVE TOWARD THE NE MOVING PARALLEL TO THE COAST. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP SEA BREEZE PINNED CLOSER TO THE COAST. OVERALL EXPECT BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EARLY ON TUES AND CONVECTION MAINLY LOCALIZED ALONG SEA BREEZE AND FURTHER INLAND ALONG TROUGH. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH PCP WATER VALUES UP AROUND 2 INCHES AND THEREFORE EXPECT SHWRS/TSTMS EACH AFTN. ONCE SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE COAST ON TUES...RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN A BIT WITH HEIGHTS RISING THROUGH MID WEEK. 850 TEMPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM TUES INTO WED BUT OVERALL REMAIN AROUND 20 C. THIS WILL PRODUCE TEMPS RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL...BETWEEN 90 AND 95 MOST PLACES. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN OVER THE SOUTHEAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO AREA LATE THURS INTO FRI. THIS FRONT MAY LINGER AS H5 TROUGH WORKS ITS WAY SLOWLY EAST FINALLY MOVING OFF SHORE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. OVERALL EXPECT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. PCP WATER VALUES REACH OVER 2 INCHES IN ENHANCED CONVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG FRONT FRI INTO SAT. DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY IN ONCE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF AREA SUN INTO MON. MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL PRODUCE HEIGHT FALLS AND 850 TEMPS DROP FROM THEIR PEAK ON THURS AFTN AROUND 20C DOWN TO 16C SAT INTO SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL START OUT WARM UP IN THE 90S ON THURS AND WILL START TO FALL OFF RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND...IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE IN INCREASED CLOUDS AND PCP. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 12Z...EXPECT A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON JUST INLAND OF THE COAST...WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH FROM FLO TO LBT. THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECASTS PRESENTLY. THERE IS BETTER MOISTURE AT FLO/LBT WHICH SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THOSE TERMINALS...BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN THOSE TAFS ATTM. WHEN ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT COULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OFFSHORE OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND MORNING FOG EACH DAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. SEAS WILL BE HIGHER THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED FROM THESE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AS A PERSISTENT ESE SWELL IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPINGE UPON THE WATERS. COULD SEE COMBINED SEAS OF UP TO 5 FT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE OUTER FRINGES OF OUR WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT A 3 TO 4 FT RANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL INCREASE AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS PIEDMONT TROUGH PERSISTS INLAND. EXPECT WINDS TO BE SW AROUND 15 KTS ON TUES AND INCREASING FURTHER UP AROUND 20 KTS LATE WED INTO THURS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT UP TO 3 TO 5 FT BY THURS MORNING. A LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL MIXING IN WITH LOCALLY DRIVEN WIND WAVE WILL DIMINISH BY WED EVENING. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...THE OVERALL FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST AROUND BERMUDA HIGH BUT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN. THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS WHICH IN TURN WILL PUSH SEAS UP FURTHER BETWEEN 5 AND 6 FT IN OUTER WATERS BUT OVERALL 3 TO 5 FT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...MRR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 416 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012 AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ087-096-099-105-107-109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033- 039-053-055-170830- SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM- CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM- LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM- MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-ROBESON-BLADEN- COLUMBUS-INLAND PENDER-INLAND NEW HANOVER-INLAND BRUNSWICK-MARLBORO- DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-WILLIAMSBURG-INLAND HORRY- INLAND GEORGETOWN- 416 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NCZ106-108-110-SCZ054-056-170830- COASTAL PENDER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-COASTAL BRUNSWICK-COASTAL HORRY- COASTAL GEORGETOWN- 416 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012 ...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.
Carolina Beach Ocean Rescue reported 25 rip related rescues during the day. Three people were taken to the hospital.
Carolina Beach Ocean Rescue reported 32 rip rescues due to one rip current. There was no information on injuries, if any.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, July 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 403718, 403719.