Drought in New Mexico, September 1 to 30, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1151 PM MDT FRI AUG 31 2012

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE NEXT 24 HOURS DESPITE A FEW HIGH BASED
SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS ROUGHLY NW QUARTER OF NM AFTER ABOUT 20Z. THESE
WILL FEATURE GUSTY WINDS...POSSIBLY AS HIGH A 30 OR 35 KTS...BUT NOT
MUCH RAIN...AND WILL FORM FIRST ALMOST ENTIRELY ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. NO HAZARDS OTHERWISE.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...217 PM MDT FRI AUG 31 2012...
THE OVERALL WEATHER TREND REMAINS CONSISTENT AND THE SAME WITHIN
THE WEATHER MODELS. GRADUAL MOISTENING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS MEANS A GRADUAL UPTICK IN CONVECTION INITIALLY
FAVORING AREAS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WESTWARD BUT THEN
TRANSITIONING EASTWARD. BOTTOMLINE...IT WILL BE A FAIRLY SLOW
PROCESS AS THE UPPER HIGH NEEDS TO WEAKEN SOME THUS REDUCING THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT AND PWATS WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
NEED TO RISE. THIS WILL HAPPEN BUT DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TRIGGER...THE PROCESS WILL BE SLOW. MASSAGED
POPS/SKY/WX VERY SLIGHTLY BUT NO DISTINCT CHANGES NEEDED. ALSO
USED PERSISTENCE IN THE TEMP GRIDS...AGAIN...VERY LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE. SOME GRADUAL WARMING EXPECTED.

DIDNT TOUCH THE EXTENDED GRIDS BUT PATTERN STILL LOOKS SOLID THERE
TOO. UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS SOME AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY BY MIDWEEK. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
ATTACHED TO THIS TROUGH WILL MOST LIKELY BRING AN UPTICK AND FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST. SUSPECT MOISTURE
WOULD PUSH WESTWARD DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
THIS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. ONLY CAVEAT IS THAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
INDICATING A WEAKER COLD FRONT THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS.
THUS...THERE ARE DISTINCT DIFFERENCES IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS
FOR MIDWEEK BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF. AGAIN...DUE TO THE TIME OF
YEAR...SORT OF LIKE THE GFS APPROACH SINCE COLD FRONTS ORIGINATING
FROM CANADA SHOULD BE GETTING BEEFIER.

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.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW-EVOLVING BUT GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL BE THE TREND THROUGH THIS
EXTENDED WEEKEND EVEN AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE STATE REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH LABOR DAY.

AFTER THIS EVENING/S ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST NM
DISSIPATE...EXPECT MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER TO ALSO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT WITH POOR TO FAIR RH RECOVERY IN THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
GOOD TO EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST STATEWIDE
THROUGH LABOR DAY WITH THE EASTERN PLAINS BEING 6 TO 12 DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL.

MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THRU LABOR DAY...WITH THE
MOUNTAIN REGIONS BEING FAVORED AREAS. MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM.

THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME MIGHT BE INTERRUPTED IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A BACK DOOR
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE MODELS DIFFER BEYOND WEDNESDAY AS TO HOW MUCH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIGHT BE PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST INTO NEW
MEXICO AND ALLOW FOR BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FOR LATER NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
540 AM MDT FRI AUG 31 2012

NMZ501>540-011145-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
539 AM MDT FRI AUG 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. IN
ADDITION...MONSOON MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE STATE
WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS...OR EVEN
FLASH FLOODING BELOW RECENTLY BURNED FORESTS.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES EASTERN
NEW MEXICO IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
WILL COVER LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA BORDERS. IN ADDITION...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE STATE THURSDAY...CONTINUING THE POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR FLOODING IN GENERAL AND FLASH FLOODING BELOW BURN SCARS.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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