Damaging Wind in Nevada, May 15, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
329 PM PDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...THE REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN...GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE THE REGION
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. CONVECTION WAS SLOW TO
START TODAY BUT HAVE OBSERVED MULTIPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER
LANDER COUNTY AND HAVE RECEIVED TWO REPORTS OF ONE MICRO-BURST IN
ELKO COUNTY NEAR SPRING CREEK THIS AFTERNOON...SO FAR. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. AT 21Z THE SOUNDING
AT EKO HAD PWS AT .36 OF AN INCH INCREASING TO .40 OF AN INCH AT
00Z. CURRENTLY...CLOSELY MONITORING THE RADAR AND SATELLITE.
EXPECTING A FRONT ON THURSDAY...THE GFS IS PROJECTING PWS OVER .60
OF AN INCH AND GOOD FGEN FORCING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LONG RANGE MODELS
ARE ONLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...AS IT TURNS OUT THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. THE MODELS HAVE GAINED CONSENSUS ON THE NEXT
UPPER LOW WHICH IS TRACKING SIMILARLY IN DEPTH TO THE CURRENT LOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING MORE MOIST AIR
THAN THE CURRENT LOW AND MODELS ARE SPREADING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWFA. THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT DO NOT SEEM TO BE
SUPPORTED FOR NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY HOWEVER LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS ONLY
MAKING IT TO THE UT/NV BORDER LATE FRIDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
UNSTABLE WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING LATE IN THE
DAY. SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE LOW. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION SHOULD BE FOCUSED FROM THE RUBY MOUNTAINS EASTWARD AND
PERHAPS BACK ALONG HIGHWAY 50 IN CENTRAL NEVADA...THEN TREND EAST AS
WELL IN THE EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A TREND TOWARDS ANOTHER DRY PERIOD IS MOST LIKELY
AND THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL PRESERVE THIS QUALITY DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL RESOLUTION. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MOVING WELL
TO THE EAST LEAVING BEHIND A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. GREAT PHASE
DISCREPANCIES EVOLVE AS THE FORECAST EXTENDS AND INTERMITTENT AS YET
CURRENTLY UNRESOLVED SHORTWAVES COULD PRODUCE SOME INCLEMENT WEATHER
HOWEVER THE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE RATHER BENIGN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT 24HRS. MAIN IMPACT IS
CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW THAT THE AIRPORTS SEE VICINITY
TS...AS THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR MTN PEAKS. ALTHOUGH NOT
INDICATED IN THE TAFS...GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH NEARBY TS ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AND AREA OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND A
SWATH OF CUMULUS BUILD UP FROM WHITE PINE COUNTY TO LANDER. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN SLOW TO START TODAY. THE FIRST LIGHTNING
STRIKES WERE OBSERVED IN 454 AND 457 JUST AFTER 3 PM. ALL EYES ARE
ON THE RADAR AT PRESENT. ALL BUT ONE RAWS SITE GOT TO SINGLE
DIGIT RH YESTERDAY AND BY 2 PM TODAY...ALMOST ALL THE RAWS SITE
RECORDED RHS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT. NEXT ORGANIZED FRONT EXPECTED
THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE STILL WAVERING WITH THE QPF
PROJECTIONS...BUT IT WILL BE A CONVECTIVE EVENT WITH CHANCE OF
WETTING RAINS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WHITE PINE
COUNTY.

&&

97/92/85/97