Drought in Nebraska, July 17 to 31, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1150 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2012

.AVIATION...06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY THROUGH THE NEXT
24HRS. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL SITUATE ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS AND WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MINIMAL AND LIMITED TO THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2012/

SHORT TERM...THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY CONCERN IS
HOW CLOSE THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT GET TO BRUSHING THE WESTERN/NORTHERN
CWA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH HOW HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES
GET TOMORROW.

20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS
OVER BOTH SOUTHEAST CO AND CENTRAL SD...WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
BREEZES OF 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS COMMON ACROSS THE CWA.
VISIBLE SATELLITE CONFIRMS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CWA-WIDE...WITH A
FEW PATCHES OF CIRRUS MOVING NORTH ON THE NEB SIDE...AND A
SCATTERED HIGH BASED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FIELD MAINLY IN KS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA REVEALS A BROAD RIDGE
AXIS ALIGNED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS...WHILE AN ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH MID-UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS
CENTERED OVER WEST TX. THE PRIMARY JET AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST TOWARD THE DAKOTAS...AND THEN EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. AS FOR THE HERE AND NOW...AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE SEVERAL DAYS DURING THE PAST MONTH...FORECAST HIGH
TEMPS APPEAR THAT THEY WILL FALL 2-3 DEGREES SHORT OF FORECAST
VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ON THE NEB SIDE...WITH
MOST PLACES TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW-MID 90S VERSUS MID-UPPER 90S.
MEANWHILE...PARTS OF KS CWA ALONG WITH FURNAS COUNTY AREA WILL
CRACK THE 100 MARK AGAIN.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED...BUT NOT
CRITICAL...FIRE DANGER WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK...AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 20
PERCENT IN THE TYPICAL 3-6 FAVORED SOUTHWESTERN-MOST
COUNTIES...BUT WINDS/GUSTS CONTINUE TO AVERAGE AT 5-10 MPH SHORT
OF THE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OF 20/25 MPH. OTHERWISE...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT...AS
AT LEAST WEAK CAPPING WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD HOLD CONVECTION
AT BAY LOCALLY...WITH ACTIVITY REMAINING OFF TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS AND NORTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. AS A RESULT...CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN THE RULE TONIGHT. FOR LOW
TEMPS...NUDGED DOWN 2-3 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA BASED ON TRENDS FROM THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...THUS
RESULTING IN A RANGE FROM 67-71 ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.

ON TUESDAY...CONTINUED TO KEEP THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS 20Z-00Z WILL BARE AT
LEAST SOME WATCHING IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN-MOST COUNTIES IN
CASE SOMETHING IS ABLE TO SNEAK IN. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUCH AS
THE 18Z NAM/12Z ECMWF KEEP ALL ACTIVITY TO THE WEST ACROSS THE
LBF/GLD CWAS THROUGH 00Z...BUT THE 12Z 4KM WRF-NMM TRIES TO POP A
FEW STORMS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE FAR NORTHERN CWA. TURNING TO
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN THE SREF...IT CARRIES A PRETTY CLEAR SIGNAL
THAT LEAVING OUT STORM MENTION IN THE AFTERNOON IS THE WAY TO
GO...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN STATUS QUO. ALOFT...THERE IS LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE MID-UPPER PATTERN...AS THE BROAD RIDGE AXIS REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE MID-SOUTH REGION. HOWEVER...THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE PARENT RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL AREA GETS FLATTENED A
BIT AS A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDES OUT OF WY INTO THE DAKOTAS.
MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH OR WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEB
DURING THE DAY. MULTICELL STORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY STRONG...SHOULD
FOCUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OFF TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF THIS CWA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. ONLY WILD CARD WOULD BE IF SOMETHING
ISOLATED IS ABLE TO BREACH THE CAP LOCALLY TO THE EAST OF THIS
TROUGH AXIS...BUT THE PROBABILITY APPEARS LOW ENOUGH TO OMIT THE
MENTION FOR NOW. TURNING TO TEMPERATURES...READINGS AT THE 850MB
LEVEL RISE 1-2 DEGREES OVER THOSE OF TODAY...AND THUS WOULD EXPECT
A SLIGHT INCREASE OVER THOSE OF TODAY AT THE SURFACE AS WELL.
GENERALLY MADE VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST 1-2 DEGREES
UP OR DOWN HERE OR THERE...BUT STILL CALLING FOR MAINLY UPPER 90S
IN NEB...AND 100-103 IN KS AND FURNAS COUNTY AREA. ONCE AGAIN
THOUGH...IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN WELL INTO THE MID 60S IN NORTHEAST
ZONES...COULD AGAIN SEE HIGHS HOLD DOWN MORE SO IN THE MID 90S HERE.
AS FOR HEAT INDEX READINGS...HAVE MUCH OF THE CWA AT LEAST BRIEFLY
TOUCHING THE 100-102 DEGREE RANGE...BUT STILL A BIT SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...SHOULD BE A LOT
LIKE TODAY WAS...WITH SEVERAL SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AT LEAST
REACHING ELEVATED LEVELS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO NEAR 20
PERCENT...BUT AGAIN NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD ENOUGH WIND GUSTS TO
25+ MPH TO ATTAIN CRITICAL. IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL HOWEVER
ESPECIALLY IN ROOKS/OSBORNE COUNTIES WHERE SOUTH WINDS COULD BE A
TOUCH BREEZY...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. FOR NOW
THEN...WILL MENTION HEAT AND FIRE CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT NO ADVISORIES/WARNINGS FORESEEN AT
THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS LIE WITH TEMPERATURES...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY.

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...SHOWING GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE SRN CONUS WHILE WAVES OF ENERGY STREAM
ACROSS THE NORTH.  THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT REMAINS DRY AT
THIS POINT...THOUGH IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL FOR THE NW CORNER OF
THE CWA...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING EARLIER ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS DRIFTING EAST TUESDAY EVENING...BUT ALSO SHOWS IT DYING OUT.
A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY ARISES INTO WED/WED EVENING...AS ONE OF
THE DISTURBANCES LOOKS TO CROSS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE CWA. THE
12Z NAM IS CERTAINLY ON THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SIDE OF THINGS...WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF QPF AND WITH THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF A SFC
TROUGH AXIS...WHICH PLOWS IT DOWN NEAR THE STATE LINE...VS THE
BETTER SUPPORT WHICH KEEPS IT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
DECIDED TO KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...BUT DID EXPAND
THOSE LOW POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
THE NAM IS ONTO SOMETHING.  WASNT READY TO INCREASE POPS AT THIS
POINT WITH THE NAM NOT HAVING MUCH SUPPORT FOR SUCH AN AGGRESSIVE
SOLUTION.  FROM 00-12Z THURSDAY...KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE EVENING
HOURS...AND JUST ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OR SO OF THE CWA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS
TO AMPLIFY...WITH TROUGHING BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISH OVER THE ERN
CONUS...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REACHING NORTH ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE/HIGH PLAINS.  AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO WED/THURS...DIDNT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...WHICH REMAINS TRENDED TOWARD
THE MORE NRN SET UP OF THE SFC BOUNDARY.  IF OTHER MODELS START
TRENDING MORE TOWARD SOMETHING LIKE THE 12Z NAM...IT COULD HAVE AN
IMPACT ON HIGHS...AS WINDS WOULD HAVE A MORE NOTABLE EASTERLY
COMPONENT.  THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN MORE CLOUD COVER...HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...AND TEMPERATURES COULD STRUGGLE TO REACH WHAT WE
CURRENTLY HAVE GOING...ESP ACROSS THE NEB COUNTIES.  WILL BE
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN THE UPCOMING MODEL RUNS.

AS WE GET INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AT THIS POINT IN TIME THESE TWO
DAYS ARE LOOKING LIKE THE ONES WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA.  BETWEEN THE TROUGH IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EAST COAST...AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAKING ITS WAY
ONTO THE WEST COAST...THE RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO AMPLIFY FURTHER...ALSO
KEEPING THINGS DRY. BY 12Z FRIDAY...MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE 700MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING RIGHT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS...WITH THE 500MB HIGH CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER WRN/SWRN
NEB.  THROUGH SATURDAY...THE ECMWF REMAINS FAIRLY IN PLACE...WHILE
THE GFS CENTERS THINGS EVEN MORE OVER THE CWA.  CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHS PLACE THE ENTIRE CWA RIGHT NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 100 DEGREES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THAT ABOVE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE NEAR THE WEST
COAST CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...BUT DOES
KNOCK IT DOWN A BIT...AND LOOKS TO SHIFT THE MAIN AXIS A TOUCH TO
THE WEST. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT...BUT THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY INTO MONDAY...WITH WHETHER OR A NOT A DISTURBANCE
DEPICTED IN MODELS MOVING THROUGH THE NOW NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AFFECTS
THE CWA.  WITH IT BEING DAY 7...AND VARIABILITY BETWEEN MODEL
RUNS...AM LEAVING ANY MENTION OUT.  WITH THE SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT
OF THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS AND WARMEST AIR...FORECAST HIGHS /MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA/ ARE A TOUCH LOWER...BUT
STILL TOASTY IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
755 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2012

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
171200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
755 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BETWEEN TUESDAY AND SUNDAY...HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS GENERALLY
FAVORING NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ELWOOD NEBRASKA TO SMITH CENTER
KANSAS.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA...MAINLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS STATE LINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

HEINLEIN/PFANNKUCH/ADO