Drought in Nebraska, July 10 to 31, 2012

Name: Drought in Nebraska, July 10 to 31, 2012
Start: 2012-07-10T00:00
End: 2012-07-31T23:59
Location: Nebraska

July 10 to 31, 2012 · NWS GID · 5 events in 5 counties and zones

S. Drought Monitor, but by month's end had drastically degraded to category D4 exceptional drought for the first time since at least 2002.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 5 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 5

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.

This area north of Interstate 80, including most of Valley, Greeley, Sherman and Howard Counties along with far western Nance County started out July in category D1 moderate drought according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, but by month's end had drastically degraded to category D4 exceptional drought for the first time since at least 2002. As of July 31st, all counties were either a primary or contiguous county in a federally-declared drought disaster area. This incredibly rapid onset of exceptional flash drought marked a downward spiral in drought conditions since early June, when the entire area was still free of all drought categories. In fact, precipitation during both April and May was slightly above normal across most of this area, including two-month totals of 7.55 at Ord and 6.83 at Greeley. However, a dramatic decrease in rainfall ensued during June and July with most of the area totaling less than 1 for the two months combined! Serving as one of many examples, the combined June-July rainfall total of 0.48 at the Ord airport was merely 7 percent of the normal amount of 7.09, and was by far the driest June-July period on record. Other paltry June-July rainfall totals within the area included 0.38 at St. Paul, 0.62 at Greeley and 0.89 at Belgrade. Focusing solely on July, several places recorded no measurable rain during the month, including at Belgrade and near Dannebrog. As though the lack of rain was not enough to hasten the onset of drought, average daily high temperatures for the combined months of June and July registered at least 5-8 degrees above normal, essentially baking moisture-starved maturing crops. In Ord, the average June-July daily high temperature was 92.6 degrees, or 8.3 degrees hotter than the 30-year normal. In July, Ord reached at least 100 degrees on 10 days. For the week ending July 29th, the Nebraska Weather and Crops Report from the USDA indicated that some corn was being chopped for silage or cut for hay to compensate for poor pasture conditions. In addition, state-averaged topsoil and subsoil moisture was indicated as 96 percent short to very short. Poor to very poor crop conditions were reported as 37 percent for corn, 38 percent for soybeans and 69 percent for alfalfa, and pasture and range conditions were rated as 83 percent poor to very poor.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 9, 11:38 PM CST, 22 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 9, 11:38 PM CST, 22 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1238 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012

.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT KGRI FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAY SEE A BRIEF PASSING
SHOWER NEAR THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AS LATEST
RADAR RETURNS INDICATING SOME LIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST
UPSTREAM OF THE SITE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT CIGS TO RETURN BY
10/08Z...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE GROUND AS SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH LIGHT GRADIENT...EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN 10KTS
OR LESS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROUGHING
OVER THE EAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK WITH JET ACTIVITY REMAINING
RELEGATED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT
WHAT LITTLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOES EXIST OVER OUR AREA IS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD REMAINING FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE MOST
PART ACROSS OUR AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ONE-HALF OF OUR CWA...WITH CLOUDY
SKIES PERSISTING FARTHER SOUTHEAST. KUEX CONTINUES TO INDICATE
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR KANSAS COUNTIES...WHICH IS
PRIMARILY BEING MAINTAINED THROUGH MCV PROPERTIES OF THE COMPLEX.
THIS ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

LINGERING PRECIPITATION OVER OUR KANSAS COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE RESPONSIBLE
MCV CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE...CURRENTLY
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUILDING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHING
ITSELF ACROSS OUR AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THIS EVENING...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...AND HRRR OF ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY PERHAPS DEVELOPING OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA. AM NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT THIS WILL BE REALIZED GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK IN
KINEMATIC FORCING...BUT GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SUBTLE MID LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS PUSHING OVERHEAD...ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW TO MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WE HEAD INTO PEAK DIABATIC HEATING...CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM HEADING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WENT AHEAD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST 00Z-03Z AS A RESULT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY...AT WHICH TIME LOW LEVEL THERMAL
ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...WORKING IN CONCERT
WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER SUBTLE MID LEVEL PERTURBATION...MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS OUR WEST. WENT AHEAD AND
INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR WEST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A RESULT.

THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ~25-DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROPS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 60 ACROSS
MUCH OF CWA...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES THAT SOME
PATCHY FOG COULD RESULT AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. IT CERTAINLY DOSE
NOT APPEAR TO BE AN OVERLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TUESDAY
MORNING...THUS RESULTING IN PATCHY FOG PRODUCTION PRIMARILY THROUGH LOW
LYING AREAS...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THROUGH THE NEXT 15
HOURS. WITH LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW BECOMING REESTABLISHED DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...WEAK LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION SHOULD PRESENT
25-30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE RISES ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD
YIELD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

THE SEEMINGLY EVER-PRESENT GREAT BASIN UPPER HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...PLACING US WITHIN NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE  CWA TO BE VULNERABLE TO SMALL PERTURBATIONS OF ENERGY
THAT MAY ROUND THE RIDGE AND GIVE US PERHAPS A SHOT AT SOME
PRECIPITATION FROM TIME TO TIME. FRANKLY...TIMING AND PLACEMENT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN OVERALL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WEAK AND CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW.

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TOWARD A TROUGH EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND SURE ENOUGH...MODELS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP
ON THIS PROBABLE PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD THE END OF THIS EXTENDED
FORECAST THIS WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.

THIS PATTERN SHIFT MAY NOT NECESSARILY MAKE THE TEMPERATURE A WHOLE
LOT COOLER FOR OUR WEATHER AS A TROUGH WOULD EVENTUALLY WIND UP IN
THE WEST AND A RESPONDING RIDGE IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...BUT
THIS WOULD MEAN A SHIFT IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM NORTH NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEK THAN WHAT WE HAVE GENERALLY
EXPERIENCED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS AS THIS MAY OPEN UP A
MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND/OR SOUTH PACIFIC.
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY STEADILY CLIMB AS WELL.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...ROSSI
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 9, 7:35 PM CST, 4 hours 25 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
835 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
101200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
835 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY 183.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

THERE ARE MULTIPLE SMALL CHANCES FOR PRIMARILY NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

5 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Valley

When: July 10, 12:00 AM CST to July 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Valley forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 41.567, -98.982 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Greeley

When: July 10, 12:00 AM CST to July 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Greeley forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 41.567, -98.521 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Sherman

When: July 10, 12:00 AM CST to July 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Sherman forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 41.221, -98.976 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Howard

When: July 10, 12:00 AM CST to July 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Howard forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 41.220, -98.517 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Nance

When: July 10, 12:00 AM CST to July 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Nance forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 41.397, -97.992 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

Drought: A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Nebraska in 2012 Every state in 2012 This day in weather history Warnings in Nebraska, July 2012

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 398325, 398327, 398328, 398330, 398331.