A cold front and an associated upper level disturbance moved through the Mid-South during the afternoon hours of May 31, 2012. Showers and thunderstorms developed along and ahead of the cold front.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
A cold front and an associated upper level disturbance moved through the Mid-South during the afternoon hours of May 31, 2012. Showers and thunderstorms developed along and ahead of the cold front. Some storms became severe producing damaging winds and large hail. A few storms also produced heavy rain.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 31, 11:18 AM CST, 2 hours 12 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 1218 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012 .UPDATE... UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. JCL && .DISCUSSION... UPDATE... /ISSUED 1015 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2012/ CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. NO UPDATES TO GRIDS AS OF THIS MOMENT. SEE BELOW FOR UPDATED DISCUSSION ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. RRH AS OF 10 AM...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH RANGED FROM MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN ARKANSAS. THE SUN HAS BEEN OUT FOR MOST OF THE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. SOME ADDITIONAL CLEARING IS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE OVER WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS BUT THESE STORMS HAVE POSED NO THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SO FAR. THE INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS IN AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED. MODELS ARE INDICATING CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000 J/KG TO 3000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RUN OF THE NAM MODEL HAS INITIALIZED WELL AND IS HANDLING THE CURRENT CONVECTION OVER MISSOURI AND TEXAS WITH GOOD ACCURACY. GOING BY THIS MODEL...CONVECTION WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE ACROSS ARKANSAS BETWEEN THE HOURS OF NOON AND 2 PM. THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND CLEAR THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING BUT THE SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD HAVE CLEARED OUT BY THEN. THE MAIN THREATS FOR THIS AFTERNOONS STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. TORNADOES DO NOT SEEM LIKELY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE MIDSOUTH AT THIS TIME DUE TO A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD. HOWEVER...AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. THIS IS BECAUSE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BACKED TO THE SOUTHEAST A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS THIS AREA OF CONCERN THAN THE REST OF THE MIDSOUTH. SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY SHOW DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WITH DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG TO 1500 J/KG...WHICH WOULD INDICATE A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS...WHICH WILL SOMEWHAT INCREASE THE HAIL POTENTIAL. RRH PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2012/ DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A VERY COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SCENARIO IS BEGINNING TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. ONE COMPLEX OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI IS HEADED MAINLY EAST ALONG THE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT. ANOTHER MCS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS IS HEADED MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST DUE TO A NUMBER OF COLD POOL INTERACTIONS - ONE FROM THAT COMPLEX ITSELF AND ANOTHER FROM YESTERDAYS STORMS OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. HI-RES RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES THE NORTHERN COMPLEX DIMINISHING THIS MORNING WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE EXPANDING AND EVENTUALLY TURNING DUE SOUTH THRU ERN TX/WRN LA. THIS TREND IS ALREADY BEING SEEN WITH MORE STORMS FIRING OVER THE DFW METROPLEX. BETWEEN THE NORTHERN COMPLEX DYING AND THE SOUTHERN ONE TURNING MORE SOUTH WITH TIME...THINK THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE SPARED FROM MUCH CONVECTION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY INCREASES BY MIDDAY WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND LITTLE OR NO CAPPING...THINK NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLY CONGEALING INTO CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF MAINLY WIND DAMAGE. HRRR SHOWS THIS QUITE WELL. ONE VERY REAL CONCERN IS WHETHER THE COLD POOL FROM YESTERDAY AND THE LARGE COLD POOL TO THE WEST WILL SQUASH DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY BUT STAYED THE COURSE WITH VERY HIGH POPS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CLEAR TO THE EAST THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS...GUSTY NORTH WINDS...AND COOL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. A VERY PLEASANT DAY ON TAP FOR FRIDAY WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO DROP INTO THE 40S EAST AND LOW TO MID 50S WEST. MAY BE ONE OF THE COOLEST DAYS FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND AND KEEP THE MIDSOUTH IN A NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE EXTENDED. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SO BUMPED UP POPS TO THE 30-40 PCT RANGE. OTHERWISE...EARLY SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED. BORGHOFF && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE (31/18Z-01/18Z) NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO AND DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY ENDING FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 18 KTS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. WIND TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH TONIGHT AT 12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18 KTS. MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY CLEARING AT KMEM AND KJBR AFTER 01/13-15Z. JCL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MEM 57 74 58 83 / 50 10 0 20 MKL 55 73 48 81 / 60 10 0 10 JBR 55 74 54 82 / 30 10 10 20 TUP 62 76 53 83 / 80 10 0 10 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 402 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2012 ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115- MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-011115- ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA- CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER- FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY- ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON- MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT- PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY- ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA- UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA- 402 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS... THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH. CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHICH WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MAINLY WIND DAMAGE...ALTHOUGH SOME LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. A SMALL TORNADO THREAT EXISTS ALONG THE MISSOURI/ KENTUCKY BORDERS CLOSEST TO THE WARM FRONT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY AND THIS EVENING. BORGHOFF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
212 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0147 PM TSTM WND DMG W EARLE 35.27N 90.46W
05/31/2012 CRITTENDEN AR TRAINED SPOTTER
ESTIMATED 65 MPH WIND BLEW OUT PASSENGER SIDE REAR WINDOW
OF CAR.
0158 PM TSTM WND GST TYRONZA 35.49N 90.36W
05/31/2012 E60.00 MPH POINSETT AR TRAINED SPOTTER
WIND GUSTS 55 TO 60 MPH ON HWY 63.
0203 PM HAIL TYRONZA 35.49N 90.36W
05/31/2012 E0.50 INCH POINSETT AR TRAINED SPOTTER
DIME SIZE AND SMALLER HAIL IN TYRONZA.
&&
MRMThe Memphis radar (KNQA), 123 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:31 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Straight line winds extensively damaged a roof of a school.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, May 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 381767.