Hail in Missouri, May 28, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
656 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
(TONIGHT)

MUCH OF TONIGHT WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT TSRA TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE CDFNT CURRENTLY IN NWRN MO/S CNTL IA. MDLS HAVE
CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FNT AND HAVE SLOWED
POPS SOMEWHAT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

FORCING ALONG THIS FNT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST
AND THEREFORE EXPECT ONLY ISOD TO SCT TSRA. COVERAGE MAY INCREASE
SOMEWHAT AROUND MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA AS UPPER
LVLS COOL WITH THE TROF MOVING THRU THE REGION.

EVEN WITH FROPA TONIGHT...HAVE TRENDED TEMPS TWD THE WARMER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE. EXCEPTION IS THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE
THE SFC RIDGE HELP PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FASTER.

TILLY

&&

.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA AT DAYBREAK
ON TUESDAY WITH A BIT COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA.
INDICATIONS ARE THAT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THIS WILL USHER EVEN
COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. I HAVE ADDED SOME SILENT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE MAIN SHOW SHOULD BE
FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF SW MO/SE KS INTO OK...THERE HAVE BEEN
SUBTLE SIGNALS THAT WE COULD SEE A NARROW WEST-EAST ORIENTED MID
LEVEL BASED BAND OF FRONTOGENETICALLY DRIVEN PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. IF I HAD CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND
COVERAGE...I MIGHT INCREASE POPS INTO THE CHANCE RANGE. THE
CURRENT THOUGHT IS IT WILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE ALONG OR NORTH OF
I-70 BUT SOUTH OF QUINCY. SOME WEAKENING FORM OF THIS PRECIPITATION
COULD BE ONGOING A DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY.

THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL HOWEVER STILL LOOKS
ON TRACK FOR THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF
FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE MS VALLEY...EVENTUALLY EVOLVING INTO A
RATHER DEEP UPPER TROF AND CLOSED LOW BY LATE THURSDAY. THE MAIN
ISSUES WHICH REVOLVE AROUND THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE TIMING THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION AND THEN THE DEPTH AND SPEED OF THE UPPER TROF. THE
GFS AND NAM APPEAR TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK...AMPLIFYING THE LEAD IMPULSE LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND THUS POTENTIALLY OVERDEVELOPING THE LOW LEVEL
SYSTEM/CIRCULATIONS. THIS COULD IMPACT THE EASTWARD SPREAD OF
PRECIPITATION AND ALSO THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME THE
FORECAST LEANS TOWARD BRINGING HIGHER POPS INTO CENTRAL MO LATE WED
NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY. FRIDAY
LOOKS UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. POTENTIAL FOR ANY
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
LOW/TROF...OF WHICH THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF VARIANCE RIGHT
NOW.

A WARMING TREND STILL LOOKS TO EVOLVE DURING THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

GLASS

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI WILL MAKE SLOW STEADY PROGRESS
THROUGH NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING
AND DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT SO FAR HAVE BEEN PRETTY WEAK. THINK SCATTERED STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING...AND
POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. WIND WILL
SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THEN BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY 12Z.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...
COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI WILL MAKE SLOW STEADY PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...PASSING THROUGH THE TERMINAL AFTER 06Z.
TIMING DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION CONTINUES ON THE FRONT
THROUGH THE EVENING. THINK SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE ON THE
FRONT THIS EVENING...BUT IF STORMS DIE OUT EARLY...THEN THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY NOT REACH LAMBERT UNTIL LATER. VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. WIND
WILL SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 12Z.

CARNEY

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012

HERE IS A LIST OF RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY...

            ...MONDAY...
               (5/28)

ST. LOUIS       93
               2006

COLUMBIA        91
               2006

QUINCY          94
               1914

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
348 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-291200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
348 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE THIS
EVENING...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

GLASS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
830 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

MOZ041-042-290200-
AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-
830 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AUDRAIN AND NORTHERN
BOONE COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

AT 829 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF STURGEON...OR 13 MILES WEST
OF CENTRALIA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  CENTRALIA...
  STURGEON...
  HALLSVILLE...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

CARNEY