Hail in Missouri, April 24, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1218 AM CDT WED APR 25 2012

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...

WELL...IT LOOKS LIKE INTENSE PRESSURE ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A
LOW LEVEL JET HAS FORCED UP A FEW STORMS NEAR THE KS/MO STATE
LINE. THIS IS DESPITE A RATHER DRY AIRMASS BELOW 600 MB. WILL
STICK WITH THE 20 POPS OVERNIGHT BUT USE ISOLATED COVERAGE WORDING
IN THE WEATHER GRIDS.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WERE WELL ON OUR WAY TO ANOTHER WONDERFUL SPRING DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO PAVE
THE WAY FOR WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH 3 PM...TEMPS
WERE WELL IN THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
EXPECTED. THROUGH NOON...A GOOD STREAM OF UPPER LEVEL
STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUES TO MARCH IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI...IN RESPONSE TO THE CENTRAL U.S. REMAINING WELL ROOTED
WITHIN THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SITUATED
OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST.

UNFORTUNATELY...OUR WARM SUNNY WEATHER WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG AS A
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS ON THE HORIZON...BEGINNING WITH A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN CONTINUAL CHANCES OF PRECIP FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT SETS UP FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

REGARDING TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD AND SLOWLY DECREASE IN
AMPLITUDE...WITH SMALL DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. BOTH THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM HINT AT CONVECTION
OCCURRING OVER THE FOUR STATES REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAY
BREAK...WHILE THE EURO CONTINUES TO HOLD OFF ANY DEVELOPMENT. THERE
REMAINS SOME CONCERN WITH HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN WE CAN GET THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS WELL AS HOW MUCH FORCING...RUC AND NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK EML WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI OVERNIGHT...WITH ANY MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE
MID LEVELS. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A BETTER LOW LEVEL JET NOSE INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI...WITH GUIDANCE FOR NOW HINTING AT THE 850MB
JET NOSING IN NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR
AND AVAILABLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
IN THE EARLY MORNING AS THAT 500MB DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

THE REST OF WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY PLEASANT...WITH HIGHS
FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS PICKING UP AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTH WILL
BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION. A
500MB SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO DIG OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WHILE THE LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST LIFTS ACROSS MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW FROM THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THE EAST COAST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE
A COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS FRONT WILL
REMAIN A FOCAL POINT FOR NEARLY DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BEST CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR ON THURSDAY
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO TRACK
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION WITH DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES. COULD NOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTH WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL COOL CONSIDERABLY AS A SHALLOW ARCTIC
HIGH SETTLES BACK OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...DROPPING HIGHS
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND LOWS INTO THE 40S.

KURTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMED BETWEEN 04 AND 05Z
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. ONE OF THESE CELLS WILL PASS
IN THE VICINITY OF KJLN THROUGH ABOUT 0630Z. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP
TO MVFR FOR A FEW MINUTES WITH THIS STORM. ELECTED TO KEEP THE
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE KSGF AND KBBG TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN THE
LIMITED COVERAGE...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN IMPACT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. MEANWHILE...BRISK AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP BY MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1127 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2012

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-260430-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1127 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STORMS BEING ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES. ONCE AGAIN...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR
30 MPH OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI ON
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SINK
SOUTH ACROSS MISSOURI...BECOMING STATIONARY NEAR THE
MISSOURI-ARKANSAS BORDER BY LATE THURSDAY EARLY FRIDAY. DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH
SOMEWHAT BEFORE LOW PRESSURE AND COOL NORTHWEST FLOW FINALLY
SWEEP THE FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WARM AIR ALOFT MAY LIMIT STORM
CHANCES AT TIMES ESPECIALLY OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM A
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PLAINS...AND THEN AGAIN LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE OVERALL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED...BUT STRONGER
STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

SCHAUMANN