Hail and Damaging Winds in Mississippi, March 2, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1131 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012/

UPDATE...

..POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK THIS AFTERNOON
WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPS...

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS HELPED TO MIX OUT
SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 50 MPH...AS IS CURRENTLY THE CASE OVER CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES LATER THIS MORNING...THE CAP
CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL EASE ALLOWING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MOST LIKELY A ROW OR TWO COUNTIES EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS IS STILL HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. QUITE FRANKLY...IT MAY BE ONE OR TWO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
OR A BROKEN SQUALL LINE. WHILE STILL ELEVATED...STORMS HAVE BEGUN
TO FIRE TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
WITH TOWERING CU NOW EVIDENT OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

WINDS HAVE VEERED SOUTHWEST AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE VEERING
THROUGH THE DAY. VERY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS EXIST...DESPITE THE
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG
INSTABILITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT ALSO SHOW RATHER HIGH
LCL/S GIVEN THE MIXING AND RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES. THUS...STILL
THINKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG/LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES WILL BE
JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST BUT THAT IS NOT TO SAY THEY STILL ARE
NOT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL DUE
TO STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN VERY DRY AIR WITH THE MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT. STORMS WILL BE MOVING VERY QUICKLY...THUS IT IS
IMPORTANT TO MONITOR THE WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE EVOLVING SEVERE THREAT...PLEASE
REFERENCE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #205.

THE FRONT SHOULD SURGE EAST OF JACKSON AND OXFORD BY 00Z AND THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA BY 03Z.

BORGHOFF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNINGS UPDATE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON THE SHORT TERM SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...WITH ONLY MINOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES...TOWARD
WARMER CONDITIONS...IN THE MIDDLE TO LONG RANGE FORECAST.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH THE
ANTICIPATION OF A VERY ACTIVE DAY IN THE MAKING. DEW POINTS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AS A STRONG WARM FRONT
SURGES NORTH. AT 330AM IT WAS POSITIONED ACROSS THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL TO JUST NORTH OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI...BUT SHOULD BE
NORTH OF THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
PLACING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A POWERFUL
SPRING STORM SYSTEM. 60+ DEGREE READINGS ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE...MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BLYTHEVILLE TO JACKSON. PORTIONS OF
THE DELTA...SOUTH OF MEMPHIS HAVE SEEN DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S. AS A RESULT OF THIS WARM MOIST AIRMASS LAPS CAPE
VALUES RANGE FROM 200 TO 800 J/KG WITH GENERALLY -1 TO -2C LIFTED
INDICES. INSTABILITY WILL ONLY INCREASE FURTHER TODAY AS
ADDITIONAL ENERGY IS GAINED FROM DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECTING 1500
TO 3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING...GREATEST EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN ADDITION...A VERY STRONG JET STREAK
ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ACROSS SOUTH MISSOURI WILL BRING
PLENTY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY TO THE MIDSOUTH. AS THIS JET FEATURE
SHIFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTH INDIANA...IT WILL PLACE
MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI IN THE RIGHT REAR
ENTRANCE QUADRANT FAVORING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HODOGRAPHS ARE STRONGLY CURVED BELOW 3000 FEET...ESPECIALLY BEFORE
18Z RESULTING IN 0-3KM SRH BETWEEN 300 AND 500 M2/S2. AFTER
18Z...SHEER DIMINISH A BIT AS HODOGRAPHS STRAIGHTEN...BUT SPEED
SHEER WILL REMAIN PLENTY TO KEEP THE THREAT OF TORNADOES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT FORM
AFTER NOON ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE OR NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND WILL BE A THREAT WITH ANY STORMS TODAY. STORM MOTION
SHOULD BE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AT AROUND 35 MPH.

WITH TIME...SPECIFICALLY CLOSER TO 00Z AND AFTER...ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SQUALL
LINE JUST AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONT. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
ACT TO ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS RESULTING IN A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE MOST FAVORED
ALONG LINE SEGMENTS.

A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH 03Z OR SO NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER/ALABAMA STATE LINE...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT
INTO CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA BY MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HOWEVER ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM QUICKLY. HIGHS SHOULD
APPROACH 60 DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

THE 00Z GFS FEATURED A WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKING THROUGH STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY. DISCOUNTED THIS FEATURE WHEN CONSTRUCTING
THE FORECAST...AND IT IS NOW MUCH LESS PRONOUNCED IN THE 06Z RUN.
SO WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. WE MAY SEE ANOTHER SHOT AT
RAINFALL AFTER MIDWEEK...BUT AS MENTIONED EARLIER WILL FOCUS OUR
ATTENTION ON THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

FEW CHANGES FROM THE 15Z TAF UPDATE. PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS
PREFRONTAL WINDS AND LOCATION OF TSRA INITIATION AND SUBSEQUENT
EVOLUTION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

17Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL AR.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WINDS HAVE GUSTED TO 35KTS IN MANY LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH... WITH A 41KT GUST NOTED AT 4M9... CORNING
AR. NAM MODEL SUGGESTS FL020 WIND SPEED MAXIMUM WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH 21Z... AND HAVE REFLECTED A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN GUSTS FOR THE TAFS...THOUGH STILL NEAR 30KTS.

STILL APPEARS TSRA INITIATION WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE MS RIVER...
QUICKLY TAKING THE FORM OF BROKEN TO SOLID LINE EAST OF MEM. TUP
AND MKL APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY THIS LINE.

PWB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  81  43  56  39 /  30  10   0   0
MKL  80  35  55  32 /  50  10   0   0
JBR  77  36  54  35 /  20  10   0   0
TUP  81  42  60  35 /  50  80   0   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
137 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-031130-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
137 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF A
LINE FROM UNION CITY TENNESSEE TO OXFORD MISSISSIPPI WITH A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THREATS
FROM THESE STORMS INCLUDE VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
TORNADOES. THE GREATEST RISK OF OF TORNADOES WILL BE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER AND ALABAMA STATE LINE.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FOR STRONG WEST GRADIENT
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...GUSTING TO 50 MPH.

A DRY LINE WILL PUSH TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
RAPIDLY DROPPING HUMIDITIES BEHIND THE DRY LINE WILL BRING HIGH FIRE
DANGER ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIVER WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

BORGHOFF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...RETRANSMITTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
934 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-021600-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABERDEEN...AMORY...BARTLETT...
BATESVILLE...BLYTHEVILLE...BOLIVAR...BOONEVILLE...
CARUTHERSVILLE...CLARKSDALE...COLLIERVILLE...CORINTH...
COVINGTON...DRESDEN...DYERSBURG...FORREST CITY...GERMANTOWN...
HARRISBURG...HELENA...HUMBOLDT...HUNTINGDON...IUKA...JACKSON...
JONESBORO...KENNETT...LEXINGTON...MARTIN...MEMPHIS...MILAN...
MILLINGTON...NEW ALBANY...OLIVE BRANCH...OXFORD...PARAGOULD...
PARIS...SAVANNAH...SOMERVILLE...SOUTHAVEN...TUNICA...TUPELO...
UNION CITY...WALNUT RIDGE...WEST MEMPHIS...WYNNE
934 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDSOUTH TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT...

...A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS GENERALLY EAST
OF A LINE FROM UNION CITY TENNESSEE TO OXFORD MISSISSIPPI WITH A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
MIDSOUTH...

A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI TODAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT TRAVERSING THE
MIDSOUTH...MOVING INTO CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

ABUNDANT SURFACE MOISTURE IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. AS TEMPERATURES
WARM DURING THE DAY ALL INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR TORNADOES WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM UNION CITY
TENNESSEE TO IUKA MISSISSIPPI BETWEEN 1 PM AND 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE TOWARD
SUNSET BEFORE MOVING INTO CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA.

PLEASE BE SURE THAT YOUR SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY PLANS ARE IN PLACE
FOR BOTH YOUR RESIDENCE AND BUSINESS. RESIDENTS SHOULD BE SURE
THAT THEY HAVE ACCESS TO A RELIABLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SUCH AS NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL
MEDIA OUTLET.