Long-term severe drought across the entire Minnesota arrowhead and areas to the west slowly shrank and dissipated at the end of April and during early May.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DLH wrote it up.
Long-term severe drought across the entire Minnesota arrowhead and areas to the west slowly shrank and dissipated at the end of April and during early May.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Duluth, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 30, 11:42 PM CST, 19 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 1242 AM CDT TUE MAY 1 2012 .AVIATION... CLOUD SHIELD FROM DAKOTAS WILL SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE PRECIP MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE STORM TYPE POSSIBLY DISCREET...AND QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT THEY WILL BE SEVERE...HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF TSRA BUT LEFT IN CB. DUE TO THE QUESTIONABLE NATURE OF STORM COVERAGE AND SEVERITY...HAVE LEFT CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD IN MVFR...BUT POSSIBLE DEGRADATION IN PREVAILING OR TEMPO CONDITIONS LATER. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 843 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012/ UPDATE...DELAY THE ONSET OF PCPN IN THE SW CORNER OF THE FA AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION TO AFTER 09Z. SFC DEW POINTS ARE DROPPING A FEW DEGREES AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS JUST REACHING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ATTM. MADE A FEW OTHER MINOR TWEAKS OTHERWISE, FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012/ AVIATION...00Z TAFS. MID CLOUDS OVER THE FA WITH VFR AT 00Z. ISOLD SHRA MAINLY IN THE VCNTY OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE SHOULD DISSIPATE SOON. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO SCT OUT AFTER SUNSET. NEXT WAVE OF CLOUDS WILL BE THE CI SHIELD IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ATTM SPREADING OVER THE FA THROUGH THE NIGHT. REMOVED THE IFR CIGS/BR AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY. MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME WITH THE INITIALIZATION OF SHRA OVER THE FA AND HAVE ATTEMPTED A BLEND WITH VCSH MENTION BEGINNING 15Z-16Z AT BRD/INL/HIB/HYR REACHING DLH NEAR 18Z AND HAVE CB MENTION FOR POSSIBLE TSRA. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012/ SHORT TERM [NOW - TUESDAY NIGHT]... THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THIS FORECAST IS DETERMINING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH COULD BE SEVERE...FOR TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. THE SEVERE THREAT IS STILL UNCLEAR SINCE NOT TOO SURE HOW MORNING/AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE SEVERE THREAT THAT SEEMS MORE TIMED FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MODELS...WHILE A LITTLE MESSY...GENERALLY AGREE ON THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE PCPN. THEREFORE...LEANED ON A BLEND WHICH INCREASED POPS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AT 20Z...THERE WAS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MN MOVING TO THE EAST. MUCH OF THE FA WAS COVERED WITH SCT/BKN CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS. THE WINDS WERE GENERALLY SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S EXCEPT OVER THE EASTERN ARROWHEAD AND NEAR THE LAKESHORE. THROUGH TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS SHOULD GENERALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH HAVE BEEN INDICATED BY THE NAM/WRF/GFS/ECMWF...BEFORE THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS IS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL FA. A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY EJECT FROM MONTANA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TONIGHT...AND A SURFACE LOW SHOULD DEVELOP IN CENTRAL SD. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN AND MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM...ARE SUGGESTING RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL MN LATE TONIGHT...SO INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER WITH THE SHOWERS. TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW...BUT IT IS STILL UNCLEAR TO WHAT DEGREE. TOMORROW WILL INVOLVE A WARM FRONT IN CENTRAL MN THAT SHOULD DRAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN 80 TO 90 KNOT JET WILL PUNCH INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MN. DESPITE THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION FAVORING SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND/OR CONVECTION COULD CARRY INTO THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON....AND THE CLOUD COVER COULD PREVENT ENOUGH HEATING FOR SIGNIFICANT STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS. THE SREF IS SUGGESTING PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR (0-6KM) AT 40 TO 45 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25 TO 1.5...AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THEREFORE...STORMS COULD BECOME ORGANIZED. THINK THE FOCUS OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREATEST...THE WARM FRONT WILL BE...WHERE DEW POINTS APPROACH 60 DEGREES...AND WHERE THE WARM FRONT MAY CLASH WILL COOL NORTHEAST FLOW COMING OFF THE TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MAIN THREAT WITH FROM ANY SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE HAIL AND WINDS...BUT THERE IS A MINIMAL POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES WITH STORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OUT OF THE FA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...SO POPS DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY - SUNDAY]... THERE IS A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WITH THIS TIME OF PATTERN IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN SPECIFICS OF RAIN- LIKE WHERE AND WHEN. IN THE SHORTER TERM WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN OVER MOST OF MN WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER NORTHWESTERN WI WHERE NOSE OF WAA COULD HELP SET OFF SOME STORMS. MOST OF THE INSTABILITY STAYS JUST SOUTH OF AREA...BUT COULD BE ENOUGH TO TO SET OFF SOME STORMS. AFTER THAT THERE WILL BE A SWITCH TO A COOLER PERIOD WITH A CHANCE OF SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS AS WE COOL DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK. AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE... GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CIGS WERE STILL OVER KHYR...BUT SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED BY 20Z. LATE TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS AT MVFR HEIGHTS WILL FORM...ALONG WITH SOME FOG AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE....OVER MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT KINL. EXPECT THE LOW CIGS OF 015-025 TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS. && .POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 62 51 66 51 / 70 70 20 40 INL 69 48 70 46 / 70 70 10 20 BRD 72 53 75 51 / 60 70 10 30 HYR 74 60 77 55 / 40 70 50 60 ASX 69 57 72 51 / 40 70 50 60 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && AVIATION...SENGENBERGER
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 333 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012 MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-011200- KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE- NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE- SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA- SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN- CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON- BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE- 333 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT IS TUESDAY AND AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WHERE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY IS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN BOTH MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THE MAIN THREAT FROM SEVERE WEATHER IS HAIL AND WINDS. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST ON THE POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. LSZ121-140>148-011200- BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN- GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN- TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN- SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN- DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI- SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI- 333 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GREATEST RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS IS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WHERE SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. GROCHOCINSKI MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe drought was confined to a small area on the immediate Lake Superior shore.
Severe drought was confined to a small area along the immediate Lake Superior shore.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, May 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 374571, 374572.