Tornado and Hail in Minnesota, June 17, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
248 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...SEVERE EPISODE POTENTIAL FOR
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA IS INCREASING. THE SOUTHERN FA WILL
CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH TO THE
WEST. MLCAPE SHOULD BE AOA 2000 J/KG INTO THE SOUTHERN FA BY 00Z.
SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH...CURRENTLY (20Z)
LOCATED FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THERE
MAY BE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 20Z-00Z...ONE
ALONG THE WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH...AND ANOTHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY AND SFC TROUGH INTERSECT.
16Z HRRR SHOWS THIS SCENARIO...WITH ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IN
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA PROPAGATING EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING. SPC
HAS A MODERATE RISK AREA FOR THIS ACTIVITY. GIVEN CURRENT
MESOANALYSIS...WITH HIGHER LCL HEIGHTS AND WEAKER LOW LEVEL
HELICITY BUT STRONG MID- LEVEL WINDS...MAIN THREATS SHOULD BE
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT 850MB MOISTURE TO
THE NORTH...ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY INTO THIS EVENING. MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 850MB COMPUTED CAPE 1000-1500 J/KG BY 03Z
ACROSS THE SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA. AS FORCING FROM LEFT EXIT REGION
OF STRONG 250MB JET INTERSECTS THIS AREA TO THE NORTH...THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE...LIKELY AFTER
00Z. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY 06Z OR SHORTLY AFTER.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...ATTEMPTED TO TREND POPS DOWNWARD IN AREAS WHERE
CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AND THE NORTHERN FA MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ON TUESDAY AS
UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH FLOW ALOFT.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...AN ACTIVE PERIOD REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRONG
CYCLONES FOR THE SUMMER SEASON IN THE PLAINS APPEARS POSSIBLE.
THIS MAY PRODUCE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...LATE
IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE EXACT TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES REMAINS PROBLEMATIC.

A GRADUAL EASTERLY SHIFT IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
INTO THE PLAINS STATES NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD RESULT IN A WARMING TREND
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THUS...AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW
EXPECTED TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE JUNE.

&&

.AVIATION...A THUNDERSTORM THREAT REMAINS THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN FOR AVIATION PRIMARILY BETWEEN 22Z SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 KNOTS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KJMS-KFAR-KPKD LINE. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE AND WHEN THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIATE...THUS THE PERIOD OF VCTS DESIGNATED IN THE FORECASTS.
AFTER THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY. CLOUD COVER WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE MORNING HORUS ON MONDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

TG/BRAMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1234 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-181245-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
1234 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012

...A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...

...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES
IN DIAMETER...STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OF 70 MPH OR GREATER AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES...IS POSSIBLE FROM 5 PM TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THE AREA WITHIN THE
MODERATE RISK IS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 IN
NORTH DAKOTA AND HIGHWAY 10 IN MINNESOTA. THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA CONTINUES TO HAVE A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...COMBINED WITH A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
THROUGHOUT ALL OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA. WHILE THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...MOST STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE MAINLY ON
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

BRAMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
602 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012

MNZ029-030-NDZ053-180000-
RICHLAND ND-WEST OTTER TAIL MN-WILKIN MN-
602 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL WILKIN...WESTERN OTTER
TAIL AND EASTERN RICHLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 559 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES EAST OF BRECKENRIDGE...OR 7 MILES EAST OF
WAHPETON...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE STORM.

THE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
FOXHOME AROUND 610 PM CDT.
FERGUS FALLS...ROTHSAY AND CARLISLE AROUND 625 PM CDT.
LAWNDALE AND ELIZABETH AROUND 630 PM CDT.

FOR MOTORISTS ON INTERSTATE 94...THE STORM WILL BE BETWEEN...MILE
MARKER 47 AROUND 625 PM CDT...AND MILE MARKER 41 AROUND 630 PM CDT...

THE STORM MAY INTENSIFY....ALSO A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS
LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4659 9636 4622 9588 4617 9654 4633 9666
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 231DEG 28KT 4629 9644

BRAMER