A line of thunderstorms moved rapidly northeast across Northern Michigan during the evening hours, advancing out ahead of an incoming cold front. One storm within the line became severe, resulting in large hail.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS APX wrote it up.
A line of thunderstorms moved rapidly northeast across Northern Michigan during the evening hours, advancing out ahead of an incoming cold front. One storm within the line became severe, resulting in large hail.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 20, 9:27 PM EST, 6 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1027 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012 THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS DRAPED ITSELF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE LAST COUPLE DAYS IS FINALLY MAKING SOME HEADWAY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IN THE HOT AIR OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A POP UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING...WITH MUCH MORE LIKELY AND WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING A DRASTIC CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE MUCH COOLER...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012 FORECAST TIME HAS HAD TO COMPETE WITH RADAR TIME THIS EVENING. GRIDS CONTINUE TO BE UPDATED WITH CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EVIDENT ON RADAR MOVING AWAY FROM MORE- ORGANIZED ACTIVITY...EAST OF BEAVER ISL AND ESPECIALLY NEARING LAKE CITY/KALKASKA. SAID ACTIVITY IS LARGELY BEHAVING...WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 35 MPH...AND NO HAIL REPORTS. COLD FRONT IS TRAILING THE MAIN ACTIVITY...AND IS JUST ABOUT ENTERING WESTERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA. RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED. UPDATE ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012 HAVE ADJUSTED POP/WX/SKY COVER GRIDS TO END POSSIBILITY OF POP-UP STORMS. ONSET OF ORGANIZED PRECIP THREAT FROM THE SSW IS EVIDENT AFTER 9PM. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...BUT SVR WILL BE A CHALLENGE ON THE DOWNHILL SIDE OF THE DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY CYCLE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012 LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION STRENGTHENS TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE 850MB DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO THE LOWER TEENS AND PWAT VALUES SURGING TO WELL OVER AN INCH...I HAVE CONCERNS ON THE OVERALL EXTENT OF ANY SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY. BEST FORCING SHEARS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST CLOSER TO MORE FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT...WITH ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND DECREASING AMOUNTS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY. STILL BELIEVE THAT AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT ACROSS THE LAKE OUT OF WISCONSIN AND INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. BEST COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY LIKELY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN COAST NORTH INTO EASTERN UPPER...WITH A WEAKENING TREND IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE FURTHER EAST INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AS PCPN BASICALLY OUTRUNS THE BEST FORCING. SO HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT...HIGHEST NORTH AND WEST. FROPA LATE TONIGHT AND SOMEWHAT DELAYED COLD AIR ADVECTION CLOSER TO 12Z...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING ON THE MILD SIDE IN THE 50S. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING AND WILL RUN WITH RED FLAG WARNING FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. MONDAY...PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER IOWA/MINNESOTA...AND THIS IS LIKELY OUR WEATHER FOR MONDAY. FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING WITH LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH POST FRONTAL. TEMPS IN THE 50S OVER MINNESOTA TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND ALTHOUGH WE LIKELY WON/T BE THAT CHILLY...WE WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S. HIGHEST POPS DURING THE MORNING HOURS EAST OF I-75...WITH POSSIBLY ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY ALONG/JUST BEHIND SURFACE BOUNDARY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012 MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...QUIET AND SEASONABLE STRETCH OF WEATHER AS LOW/MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN ADVANCE OF PLENTIFUL WESTERN ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS. FAIRLY DRY PROFILES (PWATS DOWN LESS THAN A HALF INCH) AND SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTING OVERHEAD ARGUE FOR A DRY FORECAST ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD BE A DECENTLY CHILLY MORNING FOR THE INLAND COLD SPOTS TUESDAY MORNING AS INITIAL DRY PUSH ARRIVES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP. GUIDANCE NUMBERS ALREADY HINTING THAT THE "ICE BOX" LOCALES MAY END UP IN THE MID OR UPPER 30S...AND THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...A GREAT DAY EXPECTED FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR TUESDAY (BENEATH UPPER COOL POOL) GIVING WAY TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY AS WARM ADVECTION/RETURN FLOW CRANKS UP. LATER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A BIT MORE TRICKY FORECAST THAN EXPECTED THIS TIME YESTERDAY...WITH MAIN CONCERNS HINGING ON DEGREE OF WARMUP FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES. GUIDANCE TRENDS THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL BACKING AWAY FROM THE EXTREME WARMTH SHOWN THE PAST FEW DAYS... COURTESY OF LEAD SHORTWAVE LATER THURSDAY HELPING BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGING BEFORE IT CAN BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD A MUCH DEEPER AND MORE CLOSED LOW SOLUTION OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...FAVORING A MORE LATITUDINAL VERSUS MERIDIONAL COMPONENT TO WHAT SHOULD STILL BE SOME IMPRESSIVE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN STATES. EVEN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE STRONGLY TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION... FAVORING A MORE FLATTENED RIDGING SITUATION THIS FAR NORTH. IT WILL STILL BE WARM FOR SURE...BUT PERHAPS NOT AS WARM AS INITIALLY THOUGHT. ALSO...GIVEN THE SETUP...WITH THE APEX OF THE RIDGE JUST UPSTREAM INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST (ON THE EDGE OF STRONG CAPPING)...WE WILL ALSO LIKELY HAVE TO DEAL WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR CONVECTION DROPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE IN A RATHER TYPICAL MCS PATTERN. THIS COULD BE SOME GOOD NEWS IN TERMS OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL (WHICH WE COULD CERTAINLY USE)...THOUGH SADLY FOR THE HEAT LOVERS IT MAY WELL COME AT THE EXPENSE OF HOT WEATHER. THE NEW WEEKEND FORECAST WILL INTRODUCE SOME BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...AS WELL AS LOWER HIGHS BACK THROUGH THE 70S OR LOWER 80S (STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). WITH ALL OF THAT SAID...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT PATTERN THAT FAR OUT DOES REMAIN FAIRLY LOW...AND IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH ADDITIONAL RIDGE AMPLIFICATION TO SEND SOME VERY WARM WEATHER BACK OUR WAY. STAY TUNED... && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012 TWO PRIMARY ISSUES...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES AS A COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...AND CIG RESTRICTIONS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. SHRA TSRA ADVANCING NNE-WARD FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MI...AND WILL THREATEN TVC/MBL AREAS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...AND PLN/APN CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. A DIRECT HIT FROM A TSRA WOULD OF COURSE PRODUCE BRIEF BUT VERY LOW CONDITIONS. FOR NOW...HAVE CARRIED TSRA OUTRIGHT ONLY AT MBL...AMENDED TAFS ARE LIKELY AS PRECIP GETS CLOSER. LOW CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESSION FROM WI. COULD PERHAPS BE IFR AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT FOR NOW AM CARRYING LOW-END MVFR AS PREVAILING CONDITIONS. THINGS WILL IMPROVE TO HIGH-END MVFR DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012 UPDATE...BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED EARLIER FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND MANISTEE-PT BETSIE DUE TO GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. MANISTEE HARBOR HAD A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 40KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA OVER WHITEFISH BAY AND LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE ON MONDAY. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ346. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ321. && UPDATE...JZ SYNOPSIS...KB SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM...DL AVIATION...JZ MARINE...JK
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1015 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012 LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042- 212245- STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL- MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT- STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY- SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG- SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT- MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA- MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM- OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD- OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO- GLADWIN-ARENAC- 1015 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...THOUGH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL WILL OCCUR WITH STRONGER STORMS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON MONDAY. THERE ARE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. JK/JZ
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 938 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012 MIZ026-032-033-210230- GRAND TRAVERSE MI-MISSAUKEE MI-WEXFORD MI- 938 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012 ...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS... AT 933 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HARRIETTA TO 27 MILES SOUTH OF REED CITY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE... CADILLAC... MESICK... SHERMAN... BUCKLEY... KINGSLEY... MANTON... FIFE LAKE... MCBAIN... IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING. JZ
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
958 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0850 PM TSTM WND GST 2 NW MANISTEE 44.27N 86.36W
05/20/2012 M46 MPH LMZ521 MI C-MAN STATION
MANISTEE HARBOR
&&
JZSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1025 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012 MIZ019-021-026>028-032>034-210315- ANTRIM MI-CHARLEVOIX MI-CRAWFORD MI-GRAND TRAVERSE MI-KALKASKA MI-MISSAUKEE MI-ROSCOMMON MI-WEXFORD MI- 1025 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012 ...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS... AT 1023 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WILLIAMSBURG TO 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF EVART...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE... LAKE CITY... KALKASKA... BELLAIRE... MANCELONA... EAST JORDAN... BOYNE CITY... HOUGHTON LAKE... MCBAIN... SOUTH BOARDMAN... SHARON... IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING. JZ
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1032 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1030 PM HAIL WILLIAMSBURG 44.77N 85.40W
05/20/2012 M0.25 INCH GRAND TRAVERSE MI SPOTTER
PEA SIZE HAIL
&&
EVENT NUMBER APX1200614
MBOGUTHThe NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 51 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:33 UTC.
2 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Hail was mostly quarter-sized or smaller, but there were a few half-dollar hailstones.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, May 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 386300, 386302.