An upper disturbance moving through a warm and unstable air mass produced severe thunderstorms with large hail and heavy rain over portions of southeast Upper Michigan on the afternoon of the 18th.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MQT wrote it up.
An upper disturbance moving through a warm and unstable air mass produced severe thunderstorms with large hail and heavy rain over portions of southeast Upper Michigan on the afternoon of the 18th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Marquette, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 18, 6:43 AM EST, 5 hours 17 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 743 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012 WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS FROM THE PAC NW TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITH A 110-120 KT 250-300 MB JET THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO N CNTRL NEBRASKA FROM LOW PRES NEAR WINNIPEG. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED FROM NW MN THROUGH WRN WI INTO NRN IL. A LARGE MCS THAT DEVELOPED OVER NE SOUTH DAKOTA HAS MOVED THROUGH CNTRL/SRN MN INTO WI AND UPPER MI. THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE WERE LINED UP FROM E CNTRL THROUGH SRN WI. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY) ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012 SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...ENDING OVER CNTRL UPPER MI BY AROUND 10Z AND OVER THE EAST BY 12Z. HOWEVER...SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY REDEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NW MN. EVEN THROUGH THERE WAS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS...EXPECT THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO THIN OUT ENOUGH TO ALLOW MODERATE DAYTIME HEATING PUSHING TEMPS TO AROUND 80 AND MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1K-2K J/KG RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE NOSE OF THE JET STREAK AND THE SFC TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE REGION EXPECT FORCING FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT TO INCREASE. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING/LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...THE CONSENSUS OF HIGHER RES MODELS SUGGEST TSRA SHOULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST...AIDED BY LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE BOUNDARY...AND SPREAD INTO CNTRL UPPER MI BY MID AFTERNOON BEFORE SLIDING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG 500 MB WINDS(TO 80 KT) LEADING TO 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 60-70 KT RANGE WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS BEFORE CONVECTION BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED INTO LARGER CLUSTERS OR LINES. GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELDS AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON...THE GREATEST SVR THREAT WOULD BE STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS...PER SPC. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED NEAR THE WI BORDER. .LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012 TUESDAY... WE WILL START THIS PERIOD WITH W-SW FLOW ALOFT...IN BETWEEN A DOMINANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS AND A PROGRESSIVE LOW OVER MT. AT THE SFC...THE EXITING LOW SHOULD BE JUST NE OF JAMES BAY...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS W LAKE SUPERIOR /OR JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR/ THROUGH THE NEXT LOW SET UP OVER S CENTRAL SD. EXPECT WARMER AIR TO SURGE INTO THE S AND E SECTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY...AS THE MAIN WARM FRONT PUSHES N OF LAKE MI TO OR ACROSS PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR 00Z WEDNESDAY /850MB TEMPS OF 18-22C/. EXPECT SHOWERS AND TS TO SLIDE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MOST LIKELY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR W UPPER MI. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... THE MT LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS S MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...BEFORE PUSHING INTO N CENTRAL ONTARIO. MODELS LOOK TO BE FOLLOWING 3 SEPARATE IDEAS WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW...WITH THE FIRST BEING A MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS/NAM/SREF SOLUTION. THE OLDER 17/12Z RUNS OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF...WHILE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE OTHER MODELS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BECOME A BIT SLOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE CANADIAN NEVER REALLY CATCHING UP UNTIL LATER IN THE WORK WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE CANADIAN WILL NOT BE HIGHLY UTILIZED BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT. BACK AT THE SFC...TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH BELOW 70F TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT SURGES WELL NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY /35-40KT 850MB WINDS AND TEMPS OF 15-20C/...IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW SHIFTING ACROSS W LAKE SUPERIOR/MN TUESDAY NIGHT...AND NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT OF BEING ONE OF THE DEEPER SOLUTIONS...THE SFC LOW IS ON THE NW OR SLOWER SIDE. THIS DOES MAKE TIMING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A BIT MORE DIFFICULT...WITH IT LIKELY SET UP ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND BE MAINLY E OF THE CWA BY 06Z THURSDAY...WITH A WEAKER SECONDARY SFC TROUGH ATTEMPTING TO CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF OUR WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LINGERING 500MB LOW SPINNING OVER HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/QUEBEC...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WITH BE COOLER W-NW FLOW...WITH 850MB TEMPS AVERAGING 8-10C THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWERED DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY FROM CONSENSUS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH GOOD MIXING INTO PLENTY OF DRY AIR AOA 800MB THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTED IN RH VALUES NEAR 35 PERCENT INTERIOR WEST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LESS THAN 30 PERCENT AS THE TIME NEARS. FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE S STATES WILL EXTEND UP THROUGH MT FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE LOW TO OUR NORTH SLOWLY EXITING. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN THE PATTERN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO RESULT IN A MODERATE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND THEN. THE CONSENSUS IS TO BRING THE 500MB RIDGE UP THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH S CENTRAL CANADA BY MONDAY. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPS...AND THE RETURN OF SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS LOW PRESSURE OVER SD/NE SATURDAY ATTEMPTS TO EXTEND A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AS 500MB WAVE PUSHES IN. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO PRINT OUT PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT...IT IS MAINLY ALONG THE WI BORDER...AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012 SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL BE NEAR TO KSAW ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCTS THROUGH 14Z. AFTER THE HRA END...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LO CLDS/MVFR CONDITIONS IN ADVANCE OF WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE NE FM WI...ESPECIALLY AT SAW WITH UPSLOPE S WIND. MORE SHRA/TS ARE PSBL IN THE AFTN...BUT ONCE AGAIN DID NOT INCLUDE EXPLICIT TSRA DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODELS. VIGOROUS DRYING ALOFT SHOULD END THE SHRA/TS THREAT W-E LATE THIS AFTN AND ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS EVNG. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012 RELATIVELY SMALL SECTIONS OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PUSHES ACROSS THE COOLER LS WATERS. LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM S MANITOBA THROUGH NE WILL CONSOLIDATE N-NW OF LS BY THIS EVENING BEFORE CROSSING JAMES BAY AND INTO QUEBEC BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON EVENING...WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE /MAINLY ACROSS S PORTIONS OF LS/. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS LS...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER SD/NE TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SECONDARY LOW SHOULD CROSS N MN/W LS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO AND DRAGGING A TROUGH/COLD FRONT OVER LS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE HOLD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...WITH AN ADDITIONAL HIGH SINKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && SYNOPSIS...JLB SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...JLB MARINE...KF
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 550 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012 MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-191000- KEWEENAW-ONTONAGON-NORTHERN HOUGHTON-BARAGA-MARQUETTE-ALGER-LUCE- GOGEBIC-IRON-DICKINSON-MENOMINEE-DELTA-SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT- SOUTHERN HOUGHTON-NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT- 550 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012 /450 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2012/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE GREATEST THREAT AREA WOULD BE ACROSS INTERIOR WESTERN...AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. THE MAIN HAZARDS EXPECTED FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LSZ162-240>251-263>267-191000- LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO GRAND PORTAGE MN BEYOND 5NM-SAXON HARBOR WI TO BLACK RIVER MI- BLACK RIVER TO ONTONAGON MI- ONTONAGON TO UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI- UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO EAGLE RIVER MI- EAGLE RIVER TO MANITOU ISLAND MI- MANITOU ISLAND TO POINT ISABELLE MI- POINT ISABELLE TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI- LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO HURON ISLANDS MI INCLUDING KEWEENAW AND HURON BAYS-HURON ISLANDS TO MARQUETTE MI- MARQUETTE TO MUNISING MI-MUNISING TO GRAND MARAIS MI- GRAND MARAIS TO WHITEFISH POINT MI- LAKE SUPERIOR FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE CANAL MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INCLUDING ISLE ROYALE NATIONAL PARK- LAKE SUPERIOR FROM UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE CANAL TO MANITOU ISLAND MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER- LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE- LAKE SUPERIOR EAST OF A LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE- LAKE SUPERIOR FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO WHITEFISH POINT MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER- 550 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012 /450 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2012/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AND OVER MAINLY EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MAIN HAZARDS EXPECTED FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LMZ221-248-250-191000- GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO POINT DETOUR MI- 5NM EAST OF A LINE FROM FAIRPORT MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE- 550 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN HAZARDS EXPECTED FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. KF
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1252 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012 MIZ012-013-085-181730- DELTA-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT- 1252 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR DELTA...MENOMINEE AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM EDT/1230 PM CDT/... AT 1248 PM EDT/1148 AM CDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF GARDEN CORNERS TO 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF POWERS... OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 23 MILES WEST OF MANISTIQUE TO 21 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ESCANABA. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. DIME SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 30 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 2 PM. AT 1250 PM...DIME SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED NEAR GLADSTONE. * LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE... GLADSTONE... ESCANABA... FORD RIVER... STONINGTON... NAHMA... GARDEN CORNERS... GARDEN... STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION. MRD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1256 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1250 PM HAIL 4 WNW GLADSTONE 45.87N 87.10W
06/18/2012 M0.50 INCH DELTA MI TRAINED SPOTTER
0.25 TO 0.5 INCH HAIL. HEAVY RAIN ALSO FALLING. CONSTANT
THUNDER
&&
GMICHELSThe Marquette radar (KMQT), 95 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 16:58 UTC.
4 heavy rain, 3 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Intense thunderstorms dropped one to two inches of rainfall over many locations in Delta County on the afternoon of the 18th. The heavy rainfall caused standing water of one to two feet deep on U.S Highway 41 in Escanaba.
The spotter four miles west of Gulliver measured 1.90 inches of storm total rainfall.
The Spincich Lake RAWS site measured 1.64 inches of rainfall.
Hail measured at 1.5 inches in diameter fell at the Seul Choix Point Lighthouse.
Golf ball sized hail reported seven miles northwest of Escanaba.
Large hail was reported on the north side of Gladstone. Most hail stones were dime to quarter sized.
The spotter near Birch Creek measured 1.75 inches of rainfall over mainly a two-hour period.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, June 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 395806, 395808, 395814, 395791, 395797, 395799, 395810.