West winds gusting to 20 mph produced considerable wave action on Northern Lake Michigan, and provided a favorable environment for rip currents.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS APX wrote it up.
West winds gusting to 20 mph produced considerable wave action on Northern Lake Michigan, and provided a favorable environment for rip currents.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 21, 2:43 PM EST, 17 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 343 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012 SKIES WILL BE A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...AS A CANADIAN COOL FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SINK INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...AND STALL TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY...UNTIL ANOTHER COOL FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY. THE FRONTS WILL MERGE AND DROP SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY. SOME HIT OR MISS SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE FRONTS...BUT MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT NORTHERN MICHIGAN MAY NOT BE DONE WITH THIS FRONT YET. ONE OR MORE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...WHICH COULD KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN... DEPENDING ON WHEN AND WHERE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS DEVELOP. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012 THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS TALKED ABOUT YESTERDAY AFTERNOON THAT LOOKED RATHER THIN AND WEAK, HAS TURNED OUT TO BE THIN AND WEAK. LOWER AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BIFURCATED AS EVIDENT ON THE IR AND VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MOISTURE EITHER GOING NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY OR WEST WITH THE LOW NEAR SOUTH DAKOTA. HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND IS HELPING TO MIX OUT THE MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN IN N MICHIGAN. TONIGHT...SO MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WATCHING THE FRONT FOR SMALL FLARE UPS OF RAIN SHOWERS, AND MOST OF THAT SHOULD BE IN THE EARLY EVENING WHEN THE DIURNAL HEATING IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. AFTER THAT, THE HIGH BUILDS IN THE REGION, THE WINDS GO CALM AND THE SKY WILL CLEAR. THIS COULD LEAD TO PATCHY GROUND FOG, ESPECIALLY AT LOW LYING WATER COURSES, LIKE LAKES AND RIVERS. HOWEVER, WITH THE MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE SOUNDS DECREASING WITH HEIGHT HAVE LEFT IT OUT AT THIS POINT AND WILL PASS IT ONTO THE EVENING SHIFT TO WATCH FOR AND RE-EVALUATE. SUNDAY...MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS THE SFC HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL EXCEPT FOR NEAR M-55. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES. AT THIS POINT, THIS IS A VERY SLIM CHANCE, AND PREFER TO LOOK AT THE SITUATION AS AN 80% CHANCE OF DRYNESS. THE LATEST ECMWF IS LEANING TOWARD THAT SOLUTION FOR THE DAY AS WELL WITH THE 700-500 MB LAYER RH STAYING A LITTLE MORE SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012 LARGE SCALE ANALYSIS/FORECAST: FOUR WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IN PLACE...BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH MAIN WESTERLIES SHUNTED NORTH ACROSS CANADA. WITHIN THE MAIN WESTERLIES ARE SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE...ONE OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...A SECOND OVER WESTERN HUDSON'S BAY...AND ANOTHER OFF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF GREENLAND (WITH SOME TROUGHING HANGING BACK FROM THIS FEATURE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES). ENERGY EMANATING FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL KEEP THE RIDGE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE GREAT LAKES...AS HEIGHT FALLS AND NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ARRIVE DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA RE-ASSERTS ITSELF. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE NEAR TERM WILL DEAL WITH NICE LITTLE BOWLING BALL OF ENERGY NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER ALBERTA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS MICHIGAN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS... ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE UPPER LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...CROSSING LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN MONDAY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION INTO THE STATE. INCREASING LOW LEVEL THETA-E THOUGH STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF CINH FORECAST...THOUGH WEAKEST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVERNIGHT (AND THUS WHERE CHANCE POPS WILL RESIDE). WILL KEEP NORTHERN LOWER QUIET FOR THE MOST PART SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT THEN EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING PEAK HEATING MONDAY. AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...CONTINUE TO BE SOME HORRIFICALLY BIG DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST SURFACE CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. FOR EXAMPLE...MIDDAY AT GLR HAS 90/66 IN THE NAM-WRF...AND LOW CLOUDS AND 76/72 IN THE GFS (AN ERROR WE'VE BEEN SEEING A LOT THIS SUMMER IN THE LATTER MODEL). NOT PLANNING TO DEVIATE FROM THE IDEA OF SEEING WARM/HUMID/BREEZY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. THE NAM-WRF ALSO HAS SOME PROBLEMS ITSELF...WITH ITS EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL DRYING/FASTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IN SPITE OF ALL THESE ISSUES...FORECAST WILL CONTINUE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH SREF SHOWING DECENT PROBABILITIES OF 1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE (THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME CINH TO OVERCOME...SO RAIN THREAT NOT A SLAM DUNK). INTERESTINGLY...RECORD HIGHS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR MONDAY. GLR (91/1959) AND PLN (92/1987) ARE TWO THAT ARE REACHABLE THOUGH PLN MAY BE DEALING WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHER RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY INCLUDE 95 AT BOTH APN/HTL... POSSIBLE IF THINGS REALLY GET CRAZY ESPECIALLY WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS INTO APN...AND 97 AT TVC (SHOULD BE SAFE). HEAT INDICES ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 95-100 RANGE GIVEN DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. COOLER AND DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS DOWNSTATE...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING NEAR OR PERHAPS EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW LATE JULY NORMALS. SHOULD BE A NICE AFTERNOON THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME MORE CLOUDINESS CLOSER TO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND FALLING HUMIDITY VALUES MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. EXTENDED FORECAST (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY): HEADING INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE ANTICYCLONE/RIDGING MAY HANG ON INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST BOUNDARY SETTING UP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EVOLUTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE KEY TO RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND IN THIS TYPE OF SET UP WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO CONVECTIVE PROCESSES. SO WHETHER OR NOT BOUNDARY WILL REACH FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO PROVIDE INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN IS UNCERTAIN (IGNORING THE 21/12Z GFS FEEDBACK-INDUCED SURFACE LOW FORECAST ACROSS WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN NEXT THURSDAY/FRIDAY). LOOKS LIKE WE MAY BE ABLE TO TREND WEDNESDAY'S FORECAST DRIER...AND CURRENT ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES ARE NOT VERY PROMISING WITH MORE OF A FOCUS ACROSS CURRENT DROUGHT-AFFLICTED AREAS OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. BEST RAIN CHANCES MAY END UP HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN REMNANTS OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC UPPER LOW ARRIVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. AS FOR SPECIFICS...HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK TO JUST THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN INCREASING HINTS THAT WEDNESDAY MAY BE DRY. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...SO PLAN TO KEEP EASTERN UPPER DRY UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARRIVES (ALL THIS HIGHLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE OVER THE COMING DAYS). NEW SATURDAY FORECAST WILL START DRY PRESUMABLY IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAY'S SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. NO BIG EXTREMES IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012 LEFT THE VCSH IN APN AS THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS OUT THERE, BUT ON A WHOLE, CIGS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY VFR AS WELL AS THE VSBY WITH ANY SHOWER THAT HAS PASSED NEAR THE TAF SITES. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE TAF SITES, THIS AFTERNOON AND STALLS IN S LOWER OVERNIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. AT THIS POINT, IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY MBL WILL GET ANY KIND OF FOG. WITH THIS RATHER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE, IT MAY BE HARD TO GET ANYTHING TONIGHT. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012 TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH, THE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUITE A BIT. THIS KEEPS WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING TO VEER TO THE EAST. WITH THE GENERALLY LIGHT RETURN FLOW THAT TRIES TO REESTABLISH ITSELF SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THINK THAT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN VARIABLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE LINES AROUND 10 KNOTS MOST OF THE TIME. THE WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO PRESS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL INCREASE THE WINDS TO SW AT 10-15 KNOTS BUT SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DOESN'T LOOK PROBABLE AT THIS POINT. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...JH SHORT TERM...JSL LONG TERM...JPB AVIATION...JSL MARINE...JSL
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 352 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012 LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042- 221200- STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL- MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT- STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY- SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG- SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT- MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA- MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM- OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD- OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO- GLADWIN-ARENAC- 352 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY... ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND OVER ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY. WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY MONDAY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 95-100F RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. WARM TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MONDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE DANGER MAY ALSO BE ELEVATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND FALLING HUMIDITY VALUES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/APX (ALL LOWERCASE) JPB
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.
A teenaged male from Portage, Michigan, drowned off of Cross Village Beach. Dive teams were called in, and found the body about 40 feet from shore.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rip Current, Emmet | 2012-07-21 | 17 | Male | In Water | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, July 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 399640.