Numerous thunderstorms developed over Northern Lower Michigan by midday. One of these produced damaging winds.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS APX wrote it up.
Numerous thunderstorms developed over Northern Lower Michigan by midday. One of these produced damaging winds.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 14, 10:47 AM EST, 1 hour 11 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1147 AM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012 INCREASING HUMIDITY AND AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO SUNDAY. WARM WEATHER AND PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WORK WEEK AS A SLOW-MOVING COOL FRONT GRADUALLY DROPS THROUGH MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY LATE WEEK. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1131 AM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012 CONTINUE TO REFINE POPS/TEMPERATURES AS A GRADUAL UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE CONTINUES ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER. OUTSIDE OF TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT...THERE IS NOT A TON OF SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON...OUTSIDE OF AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY /OUTSIDE OF AREAS WHERE IT/S CURRENTLY RAINING/. THEREFORE...WILL STOP EARLIER TREND OF PUSHING POPS EAST WITH TIME AND RATHER FOCUS THEM ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME REDUCTION IN POPS TOWARDS AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL SUPPORT PLATEAUS...BUT WILL NOT GO DRY AS INSTABILITY SHOULD ALSO INCREASE. HAVE TAKEN EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A GOOD 5F ALONG THE AXIS OF EXPECTED MOST CONTINUOUS RAINFALL...AS RAIN HAS DROPPED TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS BACK TO AROUND 70. IF THE DECREASING SHRA/CLOUD TREND BY MID AFTERNOON ISN/T REALIZED HOWEVER... MID/UPPER 70S MAY BE AS HAS AS WE GET. MID 80S STILL LOOK GOOD OUTSIDE OF THIS WITH NEAR 90 ON TRACK FOR THE GLADWIN- OSCODA AREA. UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 AM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012 FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS OF 9 AM AS RADAR ECHOES BEGIN TO BLOSSOM UPSTREAM AS LOCAL PRESSURE MINIMA ON THE DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE /CREATED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OVER ILLINOIS/ BEGINS TO PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR POSITIVE PRESSURE ADVECTION TO DEVELOP IN A REGION OF INCREASINGLY MOIST /AND EVENTUALLY UNSTABLE/ AIR. EXPECT THIS UPSTREAM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO GROW AS IT ARRIVES...WITH HOPEFULLY SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE EXPANDED LIKELY POPS SOMEWHAT...BUT WILL WAIT ON TRENDS A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE PINPOINTING CATEGORICAL AREAS. ALWAYS A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN THIS SCENARIO...BUT GIVEN CURRENT MODEST TEMPERATURE RISES DESPITE SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER...WILL CONTINUE GOING MID 80S. UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012 SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO MAKE N/NE PROGRESS INTO SW SECTIONS OF OUR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. PRECIP IS VERY LIGHT...NOT EVEN SURE IT IS ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND ATTM. CURRENT FORECAST IS HANDLING THIS SITUATION WELL...THUS WILL MAKE NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND NE INTO MUCH OF OUR CWA LATE THIS MORNING AS THE COOL FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOL LEAN INTO OUR AREA. AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT WIND FIELDS ARE TOO WEAK FOR ANY CHANCE OF STRONG/SVR STORMS. WE CERTAINLY NEED THE RAIN. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012 SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINS? WELL...JUST MAYBE. PLAYER BEHIND UPCOMING RAIN POTENTIAL WELL EVIDENT ON LATE NIGHT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTTING INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. WHILE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...STILL A RESPECTABLE MOISTURE PLUME ADVECTING OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT COOL FRONT...WITH 60+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS PUNCHING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST LAKES...ALONG WITH PWAT VALUES AA 1.50 INCHES. COMBINATION OF COOLING ALOFT AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO KICK OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WESTERN LAKES. EVEN MANAGED TO POP A FEW ROGUE SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CLOSER TO HOME OVER NORTHWEST LOWER WHERE LAKE CONVERGENCE OVERCAME SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE. FORECAST CONCERNS REMAINED FOCUSED ON SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS UPSTREAM SYSTEM VISITS THE NORTH WOODS. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP TODAY VIA DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH MOISTURE PROFILES (PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING 1.50 INCHES) LOOKING A TOUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN THIS FORECASTER THOUGHT JUST 24 HOURS AGO. NO DOUBT COOLING ALOFT WITH APPROACH OF UPSTREAM WAVE (ITSELF...SEVERAL HOURS FASTER) WILL ERODE MID LEVEL CAP NOTED ON LOCAL 00Z SOUNDING THIS EVENING (ALREADY SEEN ON 00Z GREEN BAY SOUNDING)...ALLOWING UPWARDS OF 1.2K J/KG OF ML CAPE TO BE REALIZED. BASED ON SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS PAST EVENING IN A MUCH MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...SEE LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE INHERITED FORECAST FEATURING LIKELY POPS ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD FOCUS INITIAL SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS IN FORCED ASCENT REGIME...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND LAKE HURON INFLUENCED WIND INTERACTION LIKELY FOCUSING GREATEST DEVELOPMENT INTO NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE AFTERNOON. SAME GOES FOR EASTERN UPPER...ALTHOUGH LAKE MICHIGAN STABLE LAYER LOOKS TO FORCE BEST COVERAGE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS. NOT MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN LIMITED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY VALUES. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN PWAT VALUES AND POSSIBLE TRAINING ECHOES IN LIGHT STEERING FLOW. WILL CONTINUE THEME OF UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES SOME GIVEN ANTICIPATED CLOUDS AND RAIN. DOWNWARD TREND WITH DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS MAIN WAVE AND ATTENDANT FRONT TRAVERSE THE REGION. NOT LOOKING LIKE A WASHOUT WITH LESS THAN STELLAR DYNAMICS AND LOSS OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY SUPPORT. COULD BE ENOUGH DRYING LATE TO END THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR WEST. A MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012 SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY FOR ERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA AS THE COOL FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE/MOISTURE GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA. FRONT WILL PROVIDE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A TEMP/AIRMASS CHANGE...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS PERSISTING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. OUR NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALIGN ITSELF WEST TO EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY...AND WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL PUSH... THIS FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD THRU OUR CWA THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. BAND OF ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IS RATHER NARROW ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THAT WILL GRADUALLY FOLLOW THE FRONT THRU OUR CWA. POPS WILL BEGIN ACROSS ERN UPR MICHIGAN ON MONDAY...INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND THEN DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS OUR CWA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNUSUALLY WARM AND HUMID UNTIL THIS FRONT PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH...ALLOWING SOME COOLER CANADIAN AIR TO FILTER INTO NRN MICHIGAN WHICH SHOULD DROP OUR TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. HIGH TEMPS FOR SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LINGER FOR OUR SRN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT (DISCUSSED ABOVE) CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH THRU LWR MICHIGAN. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SLIDE SE OF MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...GIVING US OUR NEXT SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL DURING THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WORKWEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80 DEGREES...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE NEXT 24 HRS DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM AS A WEAK FRONT LEANS INTO NRN MICHIGAN. WILL HANDLE THESE SHOWERS WITH VCSH FOR NOW DUE THE SPOTTY/LIGHT NATURE OF THIS PRECIP...AND WILL MAKE AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED. WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 10 KTS THRU THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012 MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN TODAY OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL...BUT COASTAL CONVERGENCE REGIME MAY PUSH SOME GUSTS TOWARD 20 KNOTS FROM GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO MANISTEE. A RETURN TO LIGHTER WINDS MAINLY UNDER 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MUCH OF MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS...BEFORE A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS LIKELY AGAIN RETURNS MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT. THAT SYSTEM MAY BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT ALSO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && UPDATE...JA SYNOPSIS...MR SHORT TERM...MB LONG TERM...MR AVIATION...MR MARINE...MB
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1203 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012 LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042- 151915- STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL- MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT- STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY- SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG- SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT- MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA- MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM- OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD- OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO- GLADWIN-ARENAC- 1203 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY INLAND AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY ANY RAINFALL REPORTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/APX (ALL LOWERCASE) ARNOTT
The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 59 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 16:58 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Numerous large tree limbs were downed, a pontoon boat was flipped over, and an inflatable raft was blown up into some utility lines.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, July 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 399639.