An upper disturbance moving across Lake Superior produced a band of moderate snow showers over portions of Ontonagon County on the morning of the 2nd.
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The episode as NWS MQT wrote it up.
An upper disturbance moving across Lake Superior produced a band of moderate snow showers over portions of Ontonagon County on the morning of the 2nd.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Marquette, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 2, 12:55 AM EST, 2 hours 5 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1255 AM EST THU FEB 2 2012 UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS .UPDATE... BAND OF CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (H8-H7 LAPSE RATES OVR 8.5 C/KM) ARE PUSHING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. MAIN CHANGE TO EARLIER FCST UPDATE WAS TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FZG PCPN IN FAR WEST THROUGH AROUND 09Z. RISK OF MUCH FREEZING PCPN IS SMALL...BUT THERE WAS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA AT KDLH AND RUC13 SHOWS 925MB TEMPS/WET- BULB ZERO TEMPS RIGHT AROUND 0C OVR KIWD AT 06Z. DRYING IS VERY EVIDENT BEHIND THE LINE OF WINTRY PCPN...SO EXPECT JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND MAYBE LGT FZRA/FZDZ OVR FAR WEST WITH JUST LGT SNOW/FLURRIES BY TIME IT REACHES CNTRL CWA TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. UPDATED GRIDS TO SHOW THESE TRENDS. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO MID TEENS ALONG WI BORDER WHERE SKIES CLEARED. IN THOSE AREAS...SHOULD SEE TEMPS RISE UP THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AS CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVE IN FM THE WEST. ELSEWHERE... TRENDS IN FCST FOR TEMPS AND SKY LOOK GOOD FOR NOW. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 423 PM EST WED FEB 1 2012 LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLEARING SKIES NEAR THE WI BORDER. TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE COVERAGE INCREASES AGAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT AS MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...INDICATED TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S. LOW TEMPERATURES LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT UPON THE SKY COVER. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN UPPER MI AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE THE SNOW SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...THE AREAS MORE LIKELY TO SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATION WOULD BE OVER THE KEWEENAW AS THE GFS AND THE NAM SHOW THE GREATEST FORCING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AS INDICATED BY OMEGA LOCATED IN THE DGZ. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME DRIZZLE MAY MOVE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...HOWEVER WITH THE WETBULB TEMPERATURE REMAINING BELOW ZERO AND ABSENCE OF ANY ADVECTION EXPECT THAT ANY DRIZZLE WOULD BE VERY BRIEF. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END AS SHORTWAVE PRESSES EASTWARD IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE U.P. SKY COVER WILL LINGER AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 423 PM EST WED FEB 1 2012 SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA ON THURS AFTN WILL BE SHIFTING E OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO START TO BUILD IN TO THE UPPER GREAT LKS THURS NIGHT. BUT...DRY MID LEVEL AIR FLOWING SE IN THE NW FLOW...ALONG WITH WEAK H875 WAA...WILL KEEP LLVL INVERSION IN PLACE AND SHOULD KEEP LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED OVER THE AREA ON THURS NIGHT. WITH H900-880 TEMPS AROUND -8C...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LK INFLUENCE TO ENHANCE THE CLOUDS...WHICH COMBINED WITH LIGHT NNW FLOW COULD LEAD TO SOME UPSLOPE --SHSN/DZ OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUPERIOR. IF ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE ON 12Z NAM AND OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW PANS OUT WILL LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SO ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO THE FCST FOR THURS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LKS ON FRI FROM WRN ONTARIO...WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE WINDS FURTHER ACROSS THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE NW FLOW WILL BRUSH THE AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULDN/T LEAD TO ANY PCPN WITH MID LVL DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE. LOW CLOUDS FROM THURS NIGHT SHOULD STILL BE COVERING THE AREA FOR MUCH OF FRI...BUT --SHSN/DZ POTENTIAL LOOKS TO DIMINISH WITH LACK OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LLVL DRYING FROM THE SFC HIGH. DRIER AIR ARRIVES FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE SFC HIGH AND AREA BEING BETWEEN UPPER LOW ROTATING JUST E OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ROTATING IN FROM CANADA...WHICH LEADS TO A DRY AND CONTINUED WARMER THAN NORMAL PERIOD. DROPPED LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES ON FRI NIGHT...AS LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND PWAT VALUES AROUND 45 PERCENT OF NORMAL SUPPORTS DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 /SAT NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/... FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW EXITING THE CNTRL PLAINS AND ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURES. STILL DIFFERING OPINIONS IN THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENS MEMBERS ON THE HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE. MOST HAVE THE IDEA OF THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING EAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT AND THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LKS...BUT AS IS NORMALLY THE CASE WITH THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS...THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION REMAINS TO BE SEEN. LARGE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TOO...SO DON/T HAVE A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN EXACT FEATURES AND WILL FOLLOW A CONSENSUS FOR THE FORECAST. THUS...HAVE A DRY FCST ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ALTHOUGH THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA MAY END UP SEEING MORE SCT/BKN MID-HIGH CLOUDS AS MAIN AREA OF SYSTEM PUSHES S OF THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF SHOWING COLDER H850 TEMPS SURGING IN TUES BEHIND A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA ON MON NIGHT. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WHICH IS ALSO THE CASE BEHIND IT. THIS WILL BRING COLDER H850 AIR...TOWARDS -16C...AND CHANCES OF LES TO NNW WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS AND BUMPED UP POPS SOME IN THOSE AREAS TUES AND TUES NIGHT. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL KEEP TUES NIGHT INTO WED DRY AS WINDS BACK TO THE W . && .AVIATION /FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ONSET OF -SN IS VERY CLOSE TO IWD AT ISSUANCE TIME. PER RADAR AND OBS FROM ASX...EXPECT ONLY 30-45 MINS OF MODERATE SN WITH VIS DROPPING TO AROUND 2SM. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE EAST OVERNIGHT AND REACH CMX AROUND 10Z...AND SAW AROUND 12Z. ONLY A 2-3 HOUR SPAN OF -SN IS EXPECTED WITH MINIMAL VIS OBSTRUCTIONS. CIG FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT INTO THE MORNING AT CMX AS UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BECOME A FACTOR AND BRING LEVELS INTO IFR RANGE. DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP RAISE THESE BACK TO MVFR LEVELS...BUT IFR CIGS WILL RETURN AFTER DARK. DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY ERODE CLOUDS AT IWD. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10KTS AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WEST AT ALL SITES BY THURSDAY MORNING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 423 PM EST WED FEB 1 2012 IN THE SHORT TERM...WIND AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OVER THE LAKE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELAXED. THE NEXT CHANCE OF INCREASED WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN AND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && UPDATE...JLA SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...TK MARINE...KEC
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 525 AM EST WED FEB 1 2012 MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-021200- KEWEENAW-ONTONAGON-NORTHERN HOUGHTON-BARAGA-MARQUETTE-ALGER-LUCE- GOGEBIC-IRON-DICKINSON-MENOMINEE-DELTA-SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT- SOUTHERN HOUGHTON-NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT- 525 AM EST WED FEB 1 2012 /425 AM CST WED FEB 1 2012/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LSZ162-240>251-263>267-021200- LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO GRAND PORTAGE MN BEYOND 5NM-SAXON HARBOR WI TO BLACK RIVER MI- BLACK RIVER TO ONTONAGON MI- ONTONAGON TO UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI- UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO EAGLE RIVER MI- EAGLE RIVER TO MANITOU ISLAND MI- MANITOU ISLAND TO POINT ISABELLE MI- POINT ISABELLE TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI- LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO HURON ISLANDS MI INCLUDING KEWEENAW AND HURON BAYS-HURON ISLANDS TO MARQUETTE MI- MARQUETTE TO MUNISING MI-MUNISING TO GRAND MARAIS MI- GRAND MARAIS TO WHITEFISH POINT MI- LAKE SUPERIOR FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE CANAL MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INCLUDING ISLE ROYALE NATIONAL PARK- LAKE SUPERIOR FROM UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE CANAL TO MANITOU ISLAND MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER- LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE- LAKE SUPERIOR EAST OF A LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE- LAKE SUPERIOR FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO WHITEFISH POINT MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER- 525 AM EST WED FEB 1 2012 /425 AM CST WED FEB 1 2012/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LMZ221-248-250-021200- GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO POINT DETOUR MI- 5NM EAST OF A LINE FROM FAIRPORT MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE- 525 AM EST WED FEB 1 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. JLB
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
A band of moderate snow showers dropped three to four inches of wet snow from near Silver City south to Bergland on the morning of the 2nd.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, February 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 364900.