Hail in Kentucky, March 28, 2012

Name: Hail in Kentucky, March 28, 2012
Start: 2012-03-28T14:15
End: 2012-03-28T18:20
Location: Kentucky

March 28, 2012 · NWS JKL · 3 events in 3 counties and zones

Isolated severe thunderstorms dropped large hail in Fleming, Montgomery, and Owsley counties during the afternoon and evening hours of March 28th.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 3

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.

Isolated severe thunderstorms dropped large hail in Fleming, Montgomery, and Owsley counties during the afternoon and evening hours of March 28th.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 28, 1:55 PM EST, 20 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 28, 1:55 PM EST, 20 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
255 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AS A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SPC PUT OUT A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...MAINLY NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO FIRE UP IN THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY...SO THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING
PRETTY GOOD RIGHT NOW. THE SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE VERY STRONG AND ARE
SUPPORTIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS. THE CLEAR SKIES OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO ALLOWED THE LOW LEVELS TO BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE. WITH THE FREEZING AT 10.8K FT...AND SOME DRY AIR
ALOFT...THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE BOTH
POSSIBLE. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING QUICKLY. EXPECTING MILD CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW RIGHT OUT OF THE GATE AS OPERATIONAL
MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INITIAL
SHORTWAVE THAT TRANSITS THE REGION SOMETIME AS EARLY AS FRIDAY OR AS
LATE AS SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING SYSTEM CONSISTING OF A SFC WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA BY NO LATER THAN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THAT LEAVES EASTERN KENTUCKY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THIS STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE UPPER
MID WEST. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU ASK A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT.
NO ONE MODEL SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER IN THE TRUEST SENSE OF THE WORD
BUT NO TWO MODELS AGREE ON ANY SOLUTION IN A LARGE PART EITHER.

THEREAFTER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MEAN FAIR WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY
START OF THE WORKWEEK. POSSIBLY BECAUSE NEXT SYSTEM...LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST WINDOW...GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY AND USHERING IN SOME MUCH COOLER AIR
FOR THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME.

WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN SOLUTIONS THE TENDENCY WILL BE TO STICK CLOSE
TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...OR PERSISTENCE UNTIL MODELS GEL BETTER
ON SOME TYPE OF REASONABLE SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR
SOME TEMPO IFR IN THE VICINITY OF THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE AREA IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE HAIL IN THESE STORMS ARE GOING TO BE VERY UNFORGIVING...NOT TO
MENTION THE WIND SHEAR THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING.
SOME GUST FRONTS MAY DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE STORMS...SO THE WIND
THREAT COULD EXTEND 10 TO 30 MILES OUT AHEAD OF THE STORMS. ONCE THE
STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...JUST EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM....RAY
AVIATION...JJ

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 28, 10:01 AM EST, 4 hours 14 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1101 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-291100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
1101 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING
COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...OR HAIL. BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM FRIDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY
AND FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL OR
DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN JACKSON KY.

JP/JJ

The radar

The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 103 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:13 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

3 hail. Local standard time, as filed.

Hail, Fleming

When: March 28, 2:15 PM EST
Where: Fleming County, Mt Carmel
Measured: 1 in hail
Reported by: Law Enforcement
Coordinates: 38.480, -83.630

Hail around the size of quarters was reported in Mount Carmel.

Hail, Montgomery

When: March 28, 4:08 PM EST
Where: Montgomery County, 1 mi S of Mt Sterling
Measured: 1 in hail
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 38.035, -83.950

Dime to quarter size hail was reported 1 mile south of Mt. Sterling.

Hail, Owsley

When: March 28, 6:20 PM EST
Where: Owsley County, 1 mi SW of Island City
Measured: 1 in hail
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 37.360, -83.793

Nickel to quarter size hail was reported 1 mile southwest of Island City.

What these are

Hail: Hail three-quarters of an inch or larger, or smaller hail that caused damage, filed with the largest stone measured.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Kentucky in 2012 Every state in 2012 This day in weather history Warnings in Kentucky, March 2012

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 365145, 365146, 365147.