Isolated severe thunderstorms downed trees in Estill and Johnson counties during the afternoon hours of July 11th.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Isolated severe thunderstorms downed trees in Estill and Johnson counties during the afternoon hours of July 11th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 11, 2:32 PM EST, 3 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 332 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2012 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2012 WHAT IS LEFT OF A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS OVER KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...WITH A PREVIOUS AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE MARKING THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BECOMING BLURRED AS A MORE NORTHERN AREA OVER KENTUCKY BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY WARMER TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY DUE TO GREATER SUNSHINE...WHILE DEW POINTS WERE HIGHER TO THE SOUTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY... GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64. WILL LOOK FOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...AND HAVE GONE WITH SUB-20 POPS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE FLOW AROUND A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING SLOWLY NORTH FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING PROBABILITY OF PRECIP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. HAVE USED CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH VALUES INCREASING ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES EVERYWHERE THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ARRIVAL OF A NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN WITH NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. WILL EXPECT A MIX OF STRATIFORM PRECIP AND GENERALLY WEAK CONVECTION. ONCE CONVECTION WANES THIS EVENING...THE BEST SHOT AT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH HEATING DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE NEAR 2 INCHES ONCE THE DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVES...AND STEERING FLOW FAIRLY WEAK...SO ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2012 THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF(00Z) AND GFS(12Z) MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR DAYS 3-7 OF THE FORECAST. THE OVERALL WEATHER WILL FEATURE A SLUGGISH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH IS PROGGED TO SET UP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BOTH MODELS HAVE ACTIVE WEATHER OCCURRING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS EACH DAY. THE NIGHT TIME PERIODS ARE MUCH DRIER IN THE ECMWF MODEL THAN THE GFS...WHICH DID NOT SEEM REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT AND ANY WAVES THAT MOVE ALONG IT. WITH THAT IN MIND...WENT WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON PERIODS EACH DAY...WITH MUCH LOWER PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE NIGHT TIME PERIODS AFTER LOSS OF HEATING. BASED ON THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FEATURED IN BOTH MODELS...WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY AND NIGHT TIME PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ON ACCOUNT OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE QUITE A BIT AS THE FRONT BECOMES WASHED OUT AND THE AIR MASS BEGINS TO WARM. NEXT WEEKS TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD DUE TO MUCH LESS EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER. OVERALL THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS DERIVED BY GOING AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE LATEST COMPUTER GUIDANCE...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OCCURRING EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2012 VFR IS EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH SUB-VFR CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT THE PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN POINT IS TOO LOW FOR ANY TYPE OF RESTRICTION IN A TAF. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE LIKELY OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA NEAR TN AND VA OVERNIGHT AND ON THURSDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY BRINGING MVFR OR IFR. OUTSIDE OF PRECIP...LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN THIN. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM....AR AVIATION...HAL
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 320 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2012 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-121030- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE- JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN- ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT- OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING... OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG... MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO... WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO... PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE... CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON... HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG... INEZ...PIKEVILLE 320 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. DUSTY
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 329 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2012 KYZ058-111-112000- ESTILL-LEE- 329 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2012 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... NORTHWESTERN LEE AND SOUTHERN ESTILL. AT 329 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PITTS...OR 6 MILES EAST OF IRVINE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH. LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...PINNACLE AROUND 335 PM EDT...WILLOW SHOALS AROUND 345 PM EDT...PRYSE AROUND 355 PM EDT...DOE CREEK AROUND 400 PM EDT... RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE AND ONE QUARTER INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD. PELTON
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 49 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:35 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
On Tipton Ridge Rd...between mile markers 15 and 19...there were approximately 50 to 60 trees blown down.
A few 14 inch diameter trees were blown down.
A tree was reported to have been blow down onto a house.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, July 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 389518, 389519, 389520.