Isolated strong thunderstorms produced locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of Knott and Whitley counties during the morning of August 7th.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Isolated strong thunderstorms produced locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of Knott and Whitley counties during the morning of August 7th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 7, 6:52 AM EST, 1 hour 28 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 752 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 753 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012 AROUND 6 AM...SOME SHOWERS STARTED TO POP IN EASTERN MCCREARY COUNTY. EVEN THOUGH THE SHOWERS WERE VERY SMALL AND FEW AND FAR BETWEEN...THEY STARTED TO STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD OUT A LITTLE. THEY APPEAR TO BE FORMING ALONG THE WASHING OUT FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH IS ORRIENTED FROM SW TO NE. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DYING OFF. UPDATED THE ZONES AS WELL AS THE WEB FORECASTS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012 UPDATED THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012 THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN...HOWEVER THE PROBLEM IS IN THE DETAILS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE AREA FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS BRINGING AN ABUNDANCE OF PRECIPITATION...IS IN THE PROCESS OF FRONTOLYSIS OVER THE AREA. THE NAME BUFR SOUNDING FOR TODAY HAS A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOIST AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL WARMING WHICH SHOULD PRETTY WELL CAP ANYTHING THAT TRIES TO GROW. THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TODAY...IS HOW FAR SOUTH WILL BE THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS BE THAT FORM THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM SHOWS THIS LINE SOUTH OF THE KENTUCKY BORDER...HOWEVER THE GFS IS SHOWING THE PRECIPITATION FORMING OVER THE BORDER COUNTIES. CONSIDERING ALL THE FOG THAT HAS FORMED TONIGHT...EXPECT THAT THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP TO RETARD THE CONVECTION A BIT. THE GFS CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FIELDS HAVE NOT BEEN PERFORMING VERY WELL...SO HAVE DECIDED TO STICK MY NECK OUT A LITTLE AND GO WITH THE NAM. THE NAM BUFR SOUNDING IS SHOWING THE MID LEVEL CAPPING EXTENDING CLEAR TO THE VA AND TN BORDERS. FOR TEMPERATURES...JUST NUDGED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO THE MODEL BLENDS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN... KEEPING AN AMPLIFIED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE/EASTERN CONUS TROUGH CONFIGURATION GOING STRONG THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME FLATTENING TAKES PLACE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. INDIVIDUAL BOUTS OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL REMAIN CHALLENGING TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...SO HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO A BLENDED SOLUTION. EASTERN KENTUCKY LOOKS TO START OUT DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING HOLDS. BY THURSDAY...THE INFLUENCE A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. LIKELY POPS WILL MOVE IN FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME AS THE BEST FORCING ARRIVES IN THE FORM OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME SCATTERED POPS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...HOWEVER IT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY TO ALLOW FOR A SMALL THREAT OF CONVECTION IN THE EAST. WILL KEEP SUNDAY DRY AS WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE. BY MONDAY...ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY BE IN THE OFFING...SO WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL DROP BACK TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE COOLER HEIGHTS DOMINATE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGHS WILL THEN REBOUND TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ON MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 753 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012 FOG SHOULD BE BURNING OFF BETWEEN 12-14Z. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AFTER 4Z...WHEN THE FOG STARTS TO SET IN AGAIN. EXPECT VLIFR CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...JJ SHORT TERM...JJ LONG TERM....GEOGERIAN AVIATION...JJ
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 915 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-081615- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE- JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN- ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT- OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- 915 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. A FEW OF THESE WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD BRING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN ANY REPORTS OF EXCESSIVE RAINS OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN JACKSON. JJ/GREIF
The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 91 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 13:18 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flash flooding occurred on Whetstone Creek and Maple Creek with water up over the roads and approaching houses along the creeks.
Defeated Creek was flooded and the flood waters pushed a vehicle partially off Defeated Creek Rd.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, August 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 394423, 394424.