This Monday featured a rare, albeit brief morning tornado that destroyed a 30 x 40 foot machine shed on a farm 9 miles east of Mankato along Highway 36. This short-track EF0 tornado struck shortly before sunrise and just before 7 AM CDT, during one of the climatologically least-favored times of day for tornadoes to occur in North Central Kansas.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.
This Monday featured a rare, albeit brief morning tornado that destroyed a 30 x 40 foot machine shed on a farm 9 miles east of Mankato along Highway 36. This short-track EF0 tornado struck shortly before sunrise and just before 7 AM CDT, during one of the climatologically least-favored times of day for tornadoes to occur in North Central Kansas. This tornado was the only known occurrence of severe weather associated with this event.
Storms first entered this six-county portion of North Central Kansas from the south between 530 and 6 AM CDT, initially organized in a quasi-linear mode along the leading edge of a weakening squall line. However, between 6 and 7 AM CDT, a few storms along the far northeast edge of this advancing line intensified and became semi-discrete as they tracked north-northeast at 45-55 MPH across parts of Mitchell and Jewell Counties. It was one of these semi-discrete storms that abruptly assumed brief rotation per radar reflectivity and velocity data as it crossed the Highway 36 corridor east of Mankato, corresponding to the tornado damage report. By 730 AM CDT, this small cluster of semi-discrete storms exited northward into south central Nebraska, with no further reports of severe weather.
Although the synoptic scale setup did not necessarily suggest the likelihood of early morning tornadic development, the mesoscale environment revealed a moist low level airmass, very strong low level shear, and sufficient instability with 0-1 kilometer mixed layer CAPE around 1000 J/kg. Around the time of tornado occurrence, nearby surface observations revealed an approximate surface temperature/dewpoint of 65/59, in the presence of very strong 0-1 kilometer low level shear near 40 knots and 0-1 kilometer storm relative helicity of 200-300 m2/s2. On the larger scale, this event occurred within a broad surface warm sector, well to the east of a cold front oriented north-south across western Kansas. This expansive cold front stretched from the Dakotas to Mexico, and was anchored by a deep surface low centered near the MT/ND border. In the mid and upper levels, a highly amplified and expansive trough was situated over the western half of the CONUS. On the prior evening of the 18th, this system had spawned several tornadoes near North Platte, Nebraska.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 19, 5:02 AM CST, 53 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 602 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012 .AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF...BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN WINDS SHOULD LET UP SOME THIS EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL CENTER AROUND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND CEILING HEIGHTS THAT COULD FLUCTUATE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL RACE NORTH AND IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER COULD MAKE IT INTO THE KGRI AREA BY MID MORNING. ANY MORNING STORMS SHOULD THEN MOVE OUT BY AROUND NOON AND THEN WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES THIS MORNING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012/ SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AND ESP TODAY. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA ARE CURRENTLY QUIET...BUT THAT ISNT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG...AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING WELL INTO TX CREEPS CLOSER TO THE SWRN CORNER OF THE CWA. PRECIPITATION IS BEING DRIVING BY ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/TROUGH COVERING MOST OF THE WRN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BETWEEN THIS AND RIDGING OVER THE MIDWEST...ITS A WELL AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS. LOOKING AT THE SURFACE PATTERN...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE...BUT WAS ABLE TO LET THE WIND ADV EXPIRE ON TIME...AS THE CWA SITS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE DRAPED THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AND HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST/EAST COAST. DEWPOINTS STILL SITTING IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60...BUT THE DRYLINE ISNT FAR OFF...HAVING RECENTLY PUSHED EAST OF OGA/IML/GLD WHICH ARE SITTING WITH DPTS IN UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S. EVEN SAW A NARROW BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP RIGHT ALONG THE DRYLINE IN WRN KS. PLENTY OF THINGS TO MONITOR EVEN EARLY THIS MORNING. DONT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE MAIN AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WEST OF THE CWA...WITH LOW PRESSURE TRYING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR THE CO/NM BORDER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY AS THE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTH...AND DID RAISED POPS...MAINLY ACROSS SRN AND ERN PORTIONS. AM A LITTLE UNCERTAIN ABOUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO VARY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE. THE GFS REMAINS ON THE QUICKER SIDE...AND IS MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING IT /AND THUS THE PRECIPITATION/ FURTHER EAST INTO/THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON VS THE NAM AND EC. BY 00Z THIS EVENING THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS HAVE OUR EAST WITH MID 50S DPTS AND 30S IN THE WEST. KEPT HIGHER POPS GOING THIS AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE...AND ALSO WITH THE 00Z 4KM WRF IN MIND. IT IS POSSIBLE THE AFTERNOON POPS WILL END UP BEING TOO HIGH/TOO FAR WEST. A FEW THINGS DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY IS THAT THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER TODAY...SO INSTEAD OF SEEING MUCAPE UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG IT SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 500 J/KG OR SO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON WHETHER WE CAN GET ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...IF WE DO THIS WOULD HELP DESTABILIZE THINGS...BUT THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS DOES LOOK TO SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA. THIS INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO KEEP LAPSE RATES FROM BECOMING AS STEEP...INSTEAD OF SEEING HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S...LOOKING AT HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. CERTAINLY PLENTY OF SHEAR IN PLACE...SO IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN GET GOING ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG AND PERHAPS A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. PLENTY FOR THE DAYSHIFT TO KEEP AN EYE ON TODAY. ANOTHER THING THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...AND IS DEPENDENT ON THE DPTS AND WINDS BEHIND THE DRYLINE...WILL BE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD MAINLY AFFECT THE WRN FRINGE OF THE CWA...GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL REMAINS...BUT AT THIS POINT FORECAST RHS ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW/MID 20 PERCENT RANGE...SO HOLDING OFF ON ANY HEADLINE. TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN CHANCES SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...AND THOUGH THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION...CHANCES ARE NEVER FAR OFF. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING TODAY OVER THE SRN ROCKIES CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND BY TUESDAY EVENING IS OVER WRN TX...WHILE ALSO BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW. KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE...AS MODELS ARE EXACTLY IN THE BEST AGREEMENT WHAT LOCATIONS ARE AFFECTED AND WITH TIMING. AT THE SURFACE...EXPECTED A COOL FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA...MAINLY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE SFC LOW SETS UP OVER WRN OK. WILL SEE NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...THOUGH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS/GUIDANCE LEAD TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THOSE TEMPS. LAST NIGHT...NOTED THAT THE GFS/EC HAD STARTED COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH MID WEEK...AND WHILE THEY STILL HAVE SLIGHT VARIANCES...OVERALL AGREEMENT REMAINS DECENT. BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...WITH THE LOW REMAINING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW IT HASNT MADE MUCH PROGRESS IN ANY DIRECTION...AND LOOKS TO BE OVER WRN/NWRN TX. THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT SHIFTS A BIT TO THE NORTH...BUT ONLY ENDING UP OVER THE TX PANHANDLE TO POTENTIALLY FURTHER INTO SWRN KS. MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW AND INCREASED LIFT ACCOMPANYING THAT MORE NORTHWARD SHIFT LOOKS TO BRING BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE CWA. BUMPED UP POPS A BIT MORE...MAINLY WED EVENING/OVERNIGHT. STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...KEPT THE THUNDER MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST...WITH INSTABILITY PRETTY LOW /IF ANY AT ALL/. LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY AND POTENTIALLY WET. HOWEVER...SUNNY...DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS AGAIN EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. THE LOCATION/TRACK OF THE CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL MAKE ALL OF THE DIFFERENCE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF A MEANDERING CLOSED LOW SEVERAL DAYS FROM NOW IS NOT THAT GOOD. THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT AT LEAST FOR THE TIME BEING WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DESPITE CURRENT MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF...THERE HAS BEEN A GOOD DEAL OF RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY WITH THE UPPER LOW POSITION. RECENT MODEL RUNS WERE INDICATING LOW POSITIONS THAT WERE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LATEST RUN. CONSEQUENTLY...CONFIDENCE IN THIS LOW TRACK AND RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IN THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME PERIOD IS STILL FAIRLY LOW AND WILL REMAIN LOW UNTIL MODELS CAN SHOW GREATER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER NICE WARM WEEKEND NEXT WEEKEND IS ACTUALLY PRETTY GOOD. THE UPPER LOW...WHEREVER IT EVENTUALLY TRACKS SHOULD REALLY BE OUT OF HERE BY NEXT WEEKEND AND IT SEEMS FAIRLY LIKELY THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WILL LEAD TO WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 502 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 201200- PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE- SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK- GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN- WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER- 502 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY...AND LINGER ON INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...AND THOUGH NOT LIKELY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. IF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WERE TO DEVELOP...THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. && MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS (ALL LOWERCASE) ADO
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 541 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012 KSZ018-191115- OSBORNE KS- 541 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN OSBORNE COUNTY UNTIL 615 AM CDT... AT 539 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LURAY...OR 39 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BELOIT... MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE... OSBORNE... PORTIS... DOWNS... IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING. LAT...LON 3913 9879 3957 9882 3956 9849 3913 9849 TIME...MOT...LOC 1041Z 180DEG 40KT 3911 9866
The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 70 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 11:54 UTC.
1 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
A 30 by 40 foot machine shed was destroyed by a brief EF0 tornado, which touched down between Montrose and Formoso. The maximum wind speed was estimated at 80 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Kansas, 2012Warnings in Kansas, March 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 366546.